Analysis of Economic Time Series: A Synthesis integrates several topics in economic time-series analysis, including the formulation and estimation of distributed-lag models of dynamic economic behavior; the application of spectral analysis in the study of the behavior of economic time series; and unobserved-components models for economic time series and the closely related problem of seasonal adjustment. Comprised of 14 chapters, this volume begins with a historical background on the use of unobserved components in the analysis of economic time series, followed by an Introduction to the theory of stationary time series. Subsequent chapters focus on the spectral representation and its estimation; formulation of distributed-lag models; elements of the theory of prediction and extraction; and formulation of unobserved-components models and canonical forms. Seasonal adjustment techniques and multivariate mixed moving-average autoregressive time-series models are also considered. Finally, a time-series model of the U.S. cattle industry is presented. This monograph will be of value to mathematicians, economists, and those interested in economic theory, econometrics, and mathematical economics.
* 41 in-depth essays cover current economic theory and applied economics in a single, comprehensive volume * Interfaces section considers economics as it relates to other disciplines * Extensive notes, bibliographies and suggestions for further reading; detailed index of Topics and People `A treasure-house of stimulating argument and vast amounts of, mostly, well marshalled information. The market for general survey volumes, while already crowded, should surely find room for this offering.' - The World Economy `The work under review scores very high marks.' - The Economic Journal `The chapters are written by people who are excellently qualified and frequently well-known in their field ... The book's strengths lie in the range of contributors, the very high quality of most of the contributors and its emphasis on applied economics. For these reasons alone it is an important book, which will be invaluable both to students and to economists wishing to learn about developments in other branches of their discipline.' - Economica
In this book, Professor Kreps presents a first course on the basic models of choice theory that underlie much of economic theory. This course, taught for several years at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, gives the student an introduction to the axiomatic method of economic analysis, without placing too heavy a demand on mathematical sophistication.The course begins with the basics of choice and revealed preference theory and then discusses numerical representations of ordinal preference. Models with uncertainty come next: First is von Neumann?Morgenstern utility, and then choice under uncertainty with subjective uncertainty, using the formulation of Anscombe and Aumann, and then sketching the development of Savage's classic theory. Finally, the course delves into a number of special topics, including de Finetti's theorem, modeling choice on a part of a larger problem, dynamic choice, and the empirical evidence against the classic models.
How should policy analysts assess 'benefit validity' when behavioral anomalies appear relevant? David L. Weimer provides thoughtful answers through practical guidelines. Behavioral economists have identified a number of situations in which people appear not to behave according to the neoclassical assumptions underpinning welfare economics and its application to the assessment of the efficiency of proposed public policies through cost-benefit analysis. This book introduces the concept of benefit validity as a criterion for estimating benefits from observed or stated preference studies, and provides practical guidelines to help analysts accommodate behavioral findings. It considers benefit validity in four areas: violations of expected utility theory, unexpectedly large differences between willingness to pay and willingness to accept, non-exponential discounting, and harmful addiction. In addition to its immediate value to practicing policy analysts, it helps behavioral economists identify issues where their research programs can make practical contributions to better policy analysis.
Over the past two decades, the United States has seen a dramatic increase in the number and magnitude of punitive damages verdicts rendered by juries in civil trials. Probably the most extraordinary example is the July 2000 award of $144.8 billion in the Florida class action lawsuit brought against cigarette manufacturers. Or consider two recent verdicts against the auto manufacturer BMW in Alabama. In identical cases, argued in the same court before the same judge, one jury awarded $4 million in punitive damages, while the other awarded no punitive damages at all. In cases involving accidents, civil rights, and the environment, multimillion-dollar punitive awards have been a subject of intense controversy. But how do juries actually make decisions about punitive damages? To find out, the authors-experts in psychology, economics, and the law-present the results of controlled experiments with more than 600 mock juries involving the responses of more than 8,000 jury-eligible citizens. Although juries tended to agree in their moral judgments about the defendant's conduct, they rendered erratic and unpredictable dollar awards. The experiments also showed that instead of moderating juror verdicts, the process of jury deliberation produced a striking "severity shift" toward ever-higher awards. Jurors also tended to ignore instructions from the judges; were influenced by whatever amount the plaintiff happened to request; showed "hindsight bias," believing that what happened should have been foreseen; and penalized corporations that had based their decisions on careful cost-benefit analyses. While judges made many of the same errors, they performed better in some areas, suggesting that judges (or other specialists) may be better equipped than juries to decide punitive damages. Using a wealth of new experimental data, and offering a host of provocative findings, this book documents a wide range of systematic biases in jury behavior. It will be indispensable for anyone interested not only in punitive damages, but also jury behavior, psychology, and how people think about punishment.
Social psychology is one of the most intriguing and captivating areas of psychology, as it has a profound influence on our everyday lives; from our shopping habits to our interactions at a party. Social psychology seeks to answer questions that we think and talk about with each other every day; questions such as: Why do some people behave differently when on their own, to when they’re with a group? What leads individuals sometimes to hurt and sometimes to help one another? Why are we attracted to certain types of people? How do some persuade others to do what they want? The new edition of Social Psychology has been revised to introduce a more flexible structure for the teaching and studying of social psychology and includes up-to-date, international research in the area. There is an emphasis throughout on the critical evaluation of published research, in order to encourage critical thinking about the various topics. Applied examples across the chapters help to highlight the relevance, and hence the impact, that the theories and methods of this fascinating subject have upon the social world. Key Features Include: Research Close-Up: Following a brand new style, this feature matches the layout used in real research papers, providing an accessible introduction to journal articles and the research methods used by social psychologists. Focus On: Fully revised from the previous edition, these boxes now look at opposing viewpoints, controversial research or alternative approaches to topics within social psychology, offering a more critical outlook on topics and prompting the questioning of the validity of published research. Recommended Readings: New to this edition, recommended further readings of both classic and contemporary literature have been added to each chapter, providing a springboard for further consideration of the topic. Connect Psychology is McGraw-Hill’s digital learning and teaching environment. Students – You get easy online access to homework, tests and quizzes designed by your instructor. You get immediate feedback on how you’re doing, making it the perfect platform to test your knowledge. Lecturers – It gives you the power to create auto-graded assignments, tests and quizzes online. The detailed visual reporting allows you to easily monitor your students’ progress. In addition, you can still access key support materials for your teaching, including a testbank, seminar materials and lecture support. Visit: http://connect.mcgraw-hill.com for more details.
Social psychology has a profound influence on our everyday lives; from our shopping habits to our interactions at a party. It seeks to answer questions that we often think and talk about; questions such as: - What circumstances prompt people to help, or not to help? - What factors influence the ups and downs of our close relationships? - Why do some people behave differently when on their own compared to in a group? - What leads individuals sometimes to hurt, and other times to help one another? - Why are we attracted to certain types of people? - How do some persuade others to do what they want? This new edition of Social Psychology has been revised to introduce a more flexible structure for teaching and studying. It includes up-to-date, international research with an emphasis throughout on its critical evaluation. Applied examples across the chapters help to highlight the relevance, and hence the impact, that the theories and methods of this fascinating subject have upon the social world. Key Features Include: - Research Close-Up: Following a brand-new style, this feature matches the layout used in research papers, providing an accessible introduction to journal articles and the research methods used by social psychologists. - Focus On: Fully revised, these boxes look at opposing viewpoints, controversial research or alternative approaches to the topics. This offers a more critical outlook and prompts the questioning of the validity of published research - Recommended Readings: New to this edition, recommended further readings of both classic and contemporary literature have been added to each chapter, providing a springboard for further consideration of the topics. Connect Psychology is McGraw-Hill’s digital learning and teaching environment. Students – You get easy online access to homework, tests and quizzes designed by your instructor. You receive immediate feedback on how you’re doing, making it the perfect platform to test your knowledge. Lecturers – Connect gives you the power to create auto-graded assignments, tests and quizzes online. The detailed visual reporting allows you to easily monitor your students’ progress. In addition, you can access key support materials for your teaching, including a testbank, seminar materials and lecture support. Visit: http://connect.mcgraw-hill.com for more details. Professor David N. Myers holds the Sady and Ludwig Kahn Chair in Jewish History. As of fall 2017, he serves as the director of the Luskin Center for History and Policy. He previously served as chair of the UCLA History Department (2010-2015) and as director of the UCLA Center for Jewish Studies (1996-2000 and 2004-2010). Dr Jackie Abell is a Reader in Social Psychology with the Research Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, based at Coventry University, UK. Her current areas of research interest include the application of social psychology to wildlife conservation and environmental issues to facilitate resilience and sustainable development, place attachment and identity, social cohesion and inclusion. Professor Fabio Sani holds a Chair in Social and Health Psychology at the University of Dundee. His general research interest concerns the mental and physical health implications of group processes, social identity and sense of belonging. He has been an associate editor of the European Journal of Social Psychology.
The Export—Import Bank: An Economic Analysis provides a critical analysis of the export financing issue and the Eximbank's performance in fulfilling its congressional mandate. The analysis is based on extensive interviews with Eximbank officials and on numerous internal documents in addition to published materials. This book is composed of 11 chapters that reflect the three perspectives on Eximbank’s performance. First, an analysis of the need for such financing is presented in conjunction with an assessment of the competitiveness of U.S. programs compared with those provided by other nations. Second, Eximbank performance is evaluated in terms of the cost of its programs, their potential welfare impacts, and the likely impact on U.S. exports. Third, an evaluation is provided of the Eximbank's decision making and its methodology for evaluating the impact of its direct credit program. Recommendations are made concerning U.S. export financing objectives, strategies for achieving those objectives, and Eximbank administrative procedures. This work also provides an economic analysis of Eximbank financing and includes a case study of Eximbank decision making in the granting of a $200 million aircraft credit to Ansett Airlines of Australia. This book will prove useful to those who are interested in international trade and finance, as well as those concerned more broadly with government intervention in markets.
The past decade has seen a number of developments that threaten the very fabric of how marketing activities have traditionally been conducted. On one hand, consumers are increasingly socially networked and value-conscious, with heightened expectations of how companies will react to their demands. Along with the challenges, however, come new opportunities: the growth of behavioural economics and the emergence of new data collection techniques, for instance, give marketers unprecedented access to previously hidden aspects of consumer behavior. Clearly, ‘business as usual’ is not an option for marketing managers who want their firms to stay in the game. To help managers adapt to the rapidly changing business environment, Flux offers a collection of the very best thinking on key areas of marketing activity and decision-making. Each chapter is written by a leading expert in a specific ‘new’ marketing subject area, from managing brands to dealing with new media, and addresses substantive challenges in that area while providing steps for taking action. The book’s integrated approach makes it an excellent resource not only for marketing managers but any managers dealing with customers.
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