Statisticians and applied scientists must often select a model to fit empirical data. This book discusses the philosophy and strategy of selecting such a model using the information theory approach pioneered by Hirotugu Akaike. This approach focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data. The book includes practical applications in biology and environmental science.
Cricket has an alarming suicide rate. Among international players for England and several other countries it is far above the national average for all sports: and there have been numerous instances at other levels of the game. For thirty years, celebrated cricket author David Frith has collected data on this sad subject. Silence of the Heart is his compelling account of over a hundred cricketers - involving top names from the past hundred years - who have taken their own lives, with an explanation of factors that led to their premature deaths. Can the shocking rate of self-destruction among cricketers be reduced? Can those who run the game do something to save its participants from this dreadful fate? These are among the questions addressed within this catalogue of biographies. But the key question is whether cricket itself is to blame for its losses - or is that this summer game attracts people of a melancholic and over-sensitive nature? Stoddart, Shrewsbury, Gimblett, Bairstow, Trott, Iverson, Robertson-Glasgow, Barnes . . . There remains a sense of disbelief that these high-profile cricketers killed themselves. And many more cases are examined in this extraordinary book, which comes crammed with detail, is not devoid of humour, and must rank among the most intricately researched volumes in cricket's extensive library. With a foreword by former England captain Mike Brearley, now a psychotherapist, Silence of the Heart is a startling investigative narrative covering the phenomenon of cricket's unduly high level of suicide.
Diego Velázquez’s portrait of Juan de Pareja (ca. 1608–1670) has long been a landmark of European art, but this provocative study focuses on its subject: an enslaved man who went on to build his own successful career as an artist. This catalogue—the first scholarly monograph on Pareja— discusses the painter’s ties to the Madrid School of the 1660s and revises our understanding of artistic production during Spain’s Golden Age, with a focus on enslaved artists and artisans. The authors illuminate the highly skilled labor within Seville’s multiracial society; the role of Black saints and confraternities in the promotion of Catholicism among enslaved populations; and early twentieth-century scholar Arturo Schomburg’s project to recover Pareja’s legacy. The book also includes the first illustrated and annotated list of known works attributed to Pareja.
Presents a survey of sixty Venetian Renaissance paintings of the calibre of Bellini and Titian's "Feast of the Gods" in Washington and Giorgione's "Laura and Three Philosophers" in Vienna.
Designed for the independent traveller to Scotland, this guide covers all the popular places of interest, events and attractions, together with a factfile providing essential travel information. It offers advice on means of travel, route details, accommodation, eating out and sporting activities.
______________________ A fascinating examination of cricket in the nineteenth century by 'the most entertaining historian alive' (Spectator) 'Few historians have the power to make you feel you actually inhabit the times they are writing about. Kynaston does' Sunday Times, Books of the Decade On a hot morning in July 1898, the sporting world gathered at Lord's to celebrate the fiftieth birthday of WG Grace, the greatest cricketer the game has ever seen. Grace was cheered onto the field by a packed crowd as he captained the Gentlemen, the privileged old guard of the Establishment. Their opponents in this annual match were the Players, cricketers for whom the sport was a precarious livelihood rather than a summer pastime. This three-day encounter represented the climax of cricket's Golden Age, and the unstoppable arrival of the professional game that would dominate the twentieth century. In WG's Birthday Party, David Kynaston tells the story of one of the most thrilling matches in cricketing history, as well as the colourful and sometimes tragically moving lives of the members of both teams. Using the Gentlemen vs Players contest as a lens through which to examine the hierarchy and tensions endemic in cricket at the beginning of the modern era, he presents a lively, moving, richly detailed and massively entertaining portrait of late-Victorian society. It is social history at its most compelling, from 'the most entertaining historian alive'. ______________________ 'An absolute gem of a book' Guardian 'Kynaston writes brilliantly and readably' Independent on Sunday
This text emphasizes nonlinear models for a course in time series analysis. After introducing stochastic processes, Markov chains, Poisson processes, and ARMA models, the authors cover functional autoregressive, ARCH, threshold AR, and discrete time series models as well as several complementary approaches. They discuss the main limit theorems for Markov chains, useful inequalities, statistical techniques to infer model parameters, and GLMs. Moving on to HMM models, the book examines filtering and smoothing, parametric and nonparametric inference, advanced particle filtering, and numerical methods for inference.
Compiled by scholars with unrivalled knowledge of the sources, this dictionary provides biographies of all musicians and instrument makers employed by the English court from 1485-1714. A number of the musicians featured here have never previously received a dictionary entry. Coverage of these minor figures helps to flesh out the picture of musical life in the court in a way which individual studies of more major composers cannot. In addition to basic biographical details, entries feature information on: appointments; probate material; family background; heraldry; signatures and holograph documents; subscriptions to books; bibliographic references. A finding-list of variant names, details of the succession of court places assumed by musicians and an index of subjects and place names completes this comprehensive reference work.
By 1976, the National Front had become the fourth largest party in Britain. In a context of national decline, racism and fears that the country was collapsing into social unrest, the Front won 19 per cent of the vote in elections in Leicester and 100,000 votes in London. In response, an anti-fascist campaign was born, which combined mass action to deprive the Front of public platforms with a mass cultural movement. Rock Against Racism brought punk and reggae bands together as a weapon against the right. At Lewisham in August 1977, fighting between the far right and its opponents saw two hundred people arrested and fifty policemen injured. The press urged the state to ban two rival sets of dangerous extremists. But as the papers took sides, so did many others who determined to oppose the Front. Through the Anti-Nazi League hundreds of thousands of people painted out racist graffiti, distributed leaflets and persuaded those around them to vote against the right. This combined movement was one of the biggest mass campaigns that Britain has ever seen. This book tells the story of the National Front and the campaign which stopped it.
Michael Madigan is no ordinary citizen. As an employed husband, father and homeowner, he lives an orthodox life in mid-90s London...but his mind is faltering and his life is about to alter...dramatically. Unable to contend with a personal upheaval, his troubled mind relinquishes its tenuous grip on reality and his world plunges into a maelstrom of turmoil. Fuelled by alcohol, he ventures on a self-destructive journey littered with gruesome memories and disturbing flashbacks, tragic brutality, darkly comic episodes and gut-wrenching emotion. Can he escape his demons and the impending abyss? How will the characters he encounters affect his behaviour? Will he reconstruct his life? Or continue to plummet? A shocking revelation, coupled with a distinct realization, determine his path...
A fascinating tour of London's strangest and most intriguing locations. Ranging from architectural evidence of past incidents and stories of life beneath the city, to anecdotes of magic, mystery and murder, this is a perfect companion for the curious Londoner. It includes: A Museum of Magical Curiosities; The City's Lost Tunnels and Citadels; The Ghost of a "She-Wolf; The Bawdy House Riots; The Story of 'Jack the Stripper'; The Atmospheric Railway; The Thames Ringway Bicycle Race; A Banker Hanged at Newgate; The Crossdressing Highwayman; Bluebottles, Rozzers and Woodentops; The Hidden Statue of a Beaver; The 'Belgravia of Death'; Whitehall's Licensed Brothel; Pin-Makers, Mole-Takers and Rat Catchers; Drinking in 'The Bucket of Blood'; London's Most Haunted House. All of London is here!
Forensic mental health assessment (FMHA) has grown into a specialization informed by research and professional guidelines. This series presents up-to-date information on the most important and frequently conducted forms of FMHA. The 20 topical volumes address best approaches to practice for particular types of evaluation in the criminal, civil and juvenile/family areas. Each volume contains a thorough discussion of the relevant legal and psychological concepts, followed by a step-by-step description of the assessment process from preparing for the evaluation to writing the report and testifying in court. Volumes include the following helpful features: - Boxes that zero in on important information for use in evaluations - Tips for best practice and cautions against common pitfalls - Highlighting of relevant case law and statutes - Separate list of assessment tools for easy reference - Helpful glossary of key terms for the particular topic In making recommendations for best practice, authors consider empirical support, legal relevance, and consistency with ethical and professional standards. These volumes offer invaluable guidance for anyone involved in conducting or using forensic evaluations. A majority of police departments across the country conduct psychological evaluations of their police applicants and many also conduct periodic evaluations of incumbent police officers. With a small percentage of psychologists conducting these evaluations, and an even smaller number who have passed through board certification in forensic psychology or police and public safety psychology, there is a pressing need for education and training resources for practitioners seeking to develop competency in this area of practice. Evaluations of Police Suitability and Fitness for Duty, fills a gap in the literature, and explains the legal, procedural, ethical, and clinical foundations for these types of evaluations untethered to any single assessment instrument. Throughout the text, authors David M. Corey and Mark Zelig distinguish between enforceable, standards-based requirements and aspirational best practices. The book starts with a review of the most prominent federal laws and regulations, professional practice guidelines, and ethical standards pertinent to these evaluations. From there, applied chapters provide detailed procedural guidance, including advice for obtaining informed consent, providing disclosure to the involved parties, conducting clinical and collateral interviews, selecting written assessment instruments, integrating assessment findings to reach determinations of suitability and fitness, and preparing written reports and testimony for various audiences and uses.
The second edition marks a substantial change to the ?rst edition. P- haps the most signi?cant change is the introduction of examples based on the freeware R package. The package, which runs on most operating systems, can be downloaded from The Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) at http://cran. r-project. org/ or any one of its mirrors. Readers who have experience with the S-PLUS R package will have no problem working with R. For novices, R installs some help manuals, and CRAN supplies links to contributed tutorials such as R for Beginners. In our examples, we assume the reader has downloaded and installed R and has downloaded the nec- sary data ?les. The data ?les can be downloaded from the website for the text,http://www. stat. pitt. edu/stoffer/tsa2/ or any one of its mirrors. We will also provide additional code and other information of interest on the text’s website. Most of the material that would be given in an introductory course on time series analysis has associated R code. Although examples are given in R, the material is not R-dependent. In courses we have given using a preliminary version of the new edition of the text, students were allowed to use any package of preference. Although most students used R (or S-PLUS), a number of them completed the course successfully using other programs such R R R as ASTSA, MATLAB ,SAS , and SPSS . Another substantial change from the ?rst edition is that the material has beendividedintosmallerchapters.
Toronto was a very different place when the Horseshoe Tavern opened seventy years ago, and the bar has changed along with the city. From country to rock, punk, alt/country, and back to roots, the Horseshoe has attracted the premier acts from all eras of music, and launched the careers of many of Canada’s best-known artists.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Bei der Regressionsanalyse von Datenmaterial erhält man leider selten lineare oder andere einfache Zusammenhänge (parametrische Modelle). Dieses Buch hilft Ihnen, auch komplexere, nichtparametrische Modelle zu verstehen und zu beherrschen. Stärken und Schwächen jedes einzelnen Modells werden durch die Anwendung auf Standarddatensätze demonstriert. Verbreitete nichtparametrische Modelle werden mit Hilfe von Bayes-Verfahren in einen kohärenten wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretischen Zusammenhang gebracht.
A roll-call and history of the ex-students of Brighton College who fell in the Second World War. Eighty years on from the beginning of the Second World War it is easy to forget that, for a time, democracy, the rule of law and even everyday values of tolerance and kindness were in danger of being snuffed out in Europe. Given the sacrifices made, we must not forget the people who fought to protect these virtues – particularly those who laid down their lives for this cause. To this end, all Fourth Form pupils at Brighton College have researched an individual Old Brightonian who died in, or as a result of, the war. The list includes former masters, pupils and one German old boy who was doubtless a good man, but fighting for a bad cause. What emerges in this book, a companion to a volume on the fallen of the Great War already published, is a collection of extremely varied personal histories. Where possible, this book recalls the family lives of each man in addition to his war service. The quality of research has been high, and pupils have also excelled at storytelling: finding the excitement and humour in each life, as well as the poignancy. The 170 fallen Old Brightonians of the Second World War, nurtured by the College but cut off in their prime, have been honoured by the current crop of Brightonians, several generations below them.
The fourth edition of this successful text provides an introduction to probability and random processes, with many practical applications. It is aimed at mathematics undergraduates and postgraduates, and has four main aims. US BL To provide a thorough but straightforward account of basic probability theory, giving the reader a natural feel for the subject unburdened by oppressive technicalities. BE BL To discuss important random processes in depth with many examples.BE BL To cover a range of topics that are significant and interesting but less routine.BE BL To impart to the beginner some flavour of advanced work.BE UE OP The book begins with the basic ideas common to most undergraduate courses in mathematics, statistics, and science. It ends with material usually found at graduate level, for example, Markov processes, (including Markov chain Monte Carlo), martingales, queues, diffusions, (including stochastic calculus with Itô's formula), renewals, stationary processes (including the ergodic theorem), and option pricing in mathematical finance using the Black-Scholes formula. Further, in this new revised fourth edition, there are sections on coupling from the past, Lévy processes, self-similarity and stability, time changes, and the holding-time/jump-chain construction of continuous-time Markov chains. Finally, the number of exercises and problems has been increased by around 300 to a total of about 1300, and many of the existing exercises have been refreshed by additional parts. The solutions to these exercises and problems can be found in the companion volume, One Thousand Exercises in Probability, third edition, (OUP 2020).CP
This must-read text/reference provides a practical guide to processes involved in the development and application of dynamic simulation models, covering a wide range of issues relating to testing, verification and validation. Illustrative example problems in continuous system simulation are presented throughout the book, supported by extended case studies from a number of interdisciplinary applications. Topics and features: provides an emphasis on practical issues of model quality and validation, along with questions concerning the management of simulation models, the use of model libraries, and generic models; contains numerous step-by-step examples; presents detailed case studies, often with accompanying datasets; includes discussion of hybrid models, which involve a combination of continuous system and discrete-event descriptions; examines experimental modeling approaches that involve system identification and parameter estimation; offers supplementary material at an associated website.
Wandering into Brave New World explores the historical contexts and contemporary sources of Aldous Huxley’s 1932 novel which, seventy years after its initial publication remains the best known and most discussed dystopian work of the twentieth century. This new study addresses a number of questions which still remain open. Did his round-the-world trip in 1925-1926 provide material for the novel? Did India’s caste system contribute to the novel’s human levels? Is there an overarching pattern to the names of the novel/s characters? Has the role of Hollywood in the novel been underestimated? Is Lenina Crown a representative 1920s “flapper”? Did Huxley have knowledge of and sources for his Indian reservation characters and scenes quite independent of and more accurate than those of D. H. Lawrence’s writings? Did Huxley’s visit to Borneo contribute anything to the novel? New research allows substantive answers and even explains why Huxley linked such figures as Henry Ford and Sigmund Freud. It also shows how the novel overcomes its intense grounding in 1920s political turmoil to escape into the timelessness of dystopian fiction.
A fantastic guide to exploring the hidden rivers of London. London has many rivers, but they are often hidden under centuries of development. Rivers like the Walbrook, the Fleet or the Effra have left their mark on the city, and still form an important part of our subterranean world. - From the former watering hole, by the Earl's Sluice, where Canterbury pilgrims rested, David Bowie rehearsed and Henry Cooper trained, to the Gardens by the Westbourne where a young Mozart performed. - From Counter's Creek and its burial grounds of Kensal Green and Brompton to the River Effra and the West Norwood cemetery. - From the pipe carrying the River Tyburn over Baker Street Underground station to the grate in Farringdon through which the River Fleet can be heard (and seen). David Fathers shows the course of London's hidden rivers in a series of detailed guided walks, illustrating the traces they have left and showing the ways they have shaped the city. Each walk starts at the tube or rail station nearest to the source of the river, and then follows it down to the Thames through parkland, suburbia, historic neighbourhoods and the vestiges of our industrial past. London's Hidden Rivers contains over 120km of walks, both north and south of the Thames. Winding through the hills, valleys and marshes that underlie the city, every page is a revelation.
Semiparametric regression is concerned with the flexible incorporation of non-linear functional relationships in regression analyses. Any application area that benefits from regression analysis can also benefit from semiparametric regression. Assuming only a basic familiarity with ordinary parametric regression, this user-friendly book explains the techniques and benefits of semiparametric regression in a concise and modular fashion. The authors make liberal use of graphics and examples plus case studies taken from environmental, financial, and other applications. They include practical advice on implementation and pointers to relevant software. The 2003 book is suitable as a textbook for students with little background in regression as well as a reference book for statistically oriented scientists such as biostatisticians, econometricians, quantitative social scientists, epidemiologists, with a good working knowledge of regression and the desire to begin using more flexible semiparametric models. Even experts on semiparametric regression should find something new here.
The location of new housing development has become one of the most intractable controversies of modern times. This book provides a powerful critique of the growing tendency to reduce the debate on the development of new housing to a mere choice between greenfield and brownfield locations. It calls for full account to be taken of such factors as the structure and organisation of the housebuilding industry, supply and demand pressures in the housing market, the contested nature of sustainability and the political character of the planning process if a truly effective housing land policy is to be devised. Drawing on theories from economics and political science, this book will provide an important reference point on the institutional context within which residential development takes place and on the concerns of planning authorities, environmentalists, housebuilders, and their customers in relation to the apparent choice between greenfield and brownfield development.
Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between differing types of estimation from both the demographic and sample-survey traditions and is a self-contained primer that combines academic rigor with a wealth of real-world examples that are useful models for demographers. Between censuses, which are expensive, administratively complex, and thus infrequent, demographers and government officials must estimate population using either demographic modeling techniques or statistical surveys that sample a fraction of residents. These estimates play a central role in vital decisions that range from funding allocations and rate-setting to education, health and housing provision. They also provide important data to companies undertaking market research. However, mastering small-area and sub-national population estimation is complicated by scattered, incomplete and outdated academic sources—an issue this volume tackles head-on. Rapidly increasing population mobility is making inter-census estimation ever more important to strategic planners. This book will make the theory and techniques involved more accessible to anyone with an interest in developing or using population estimates.
This book provides a selection of pioneering papers or extracts ranging from Pascal (1654) to R.A. Fisher (1930). The editors'annotations put the articles in perspective for the modern reader. A special feature of the book is the large number of translations, nearly all made by the authors. There are several reasons for studying the history of statistics: intrinsic interest in how the field of statistics developed, learning from often brilliant ideas and not reinventing the wheel, and livening up general courses in statistics by reference to important contributors.
In August 1994, Manic Street Preachers released The Holy Bible, a dark, fiercely intelligent album that explored such themes as mental illness, murder and war. Richey Edwards, the band's lyricist and motive force, vanished five months later; he was never found. In his absence The Holy Bible entered the rock canon alongside Joy Division's Closer and Nirvana's In Utero, the valedictory works of troubled young men. This book tells the dramatic story of Manic Street Preachers' masterpiece. Tracing the album's origins in the Valleys, an industrialised region of South Wales where the band spent their formative years, the author argues that The Holy Bible can be seen as a meditation on the uses and abuses of history.
The brother of radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh argues that the Democratic Party has relinquished its control and spiritual virtue to liberal extremists, contending that the party has besmirched the president's character, undermined worthy Republican efforts, and veered away from its historical practices and roles.
A useful introduction to this topic for both students and researchers, with an emphasis on applications and practicalities rather than on a formal development. It is based on the popular software package for graphical modelling, MIM, freely available for downloading from the Internet. Following a description of some of the basic ideas of graphical modelling, subsequent chapters describe particular families of models, including log-linear models, Gaussian models, and models for mixed discrete and continuous variables. Further chapters cover hypothesis testing and model selection. Chapters 7 and 8 are new to this second edition and describe the use of directed, chain, and other graphs, complete with a summary of recent work on causal inference.
The nature and development of Augustine's understanding of the church between his conversion (386) and his forced entry into the clergy (391) provides an essential lens to understanding this seminal period of transition and the foundations of his future ecclesial contributions. Even so, most studies of Augustine's ecclesiology bypass this period, starting with the clerical Augustine (post 391). In fact, research on the 'young' Augustine and the Confessions too often stalls over debates between his neo-Platonic or Christian orientation, focusing on dichotomies in Augustine or an individualistic Augustine too rigidly labeled. This book helps fill these gaps and provides a case study supporting arguments for continuity between the 'young' and the clerical Augustine. A careful chronological textual approach to Augustine's early Christian years demonstrates how his ecclesiological thought began during this period and comprised a core component of his first theological synthesis. The emergence of his ecclesiological ideas was intimately intertwined with his overall personal, religious, philosophic, and theological development. As such it is crucial to our biographical and theological understanding of the great North African and will be of interest to specialists and students alike of Augustine's development, Confessions, mature ecclesiology, and the late antique world.
Here, for the first time, is a book that goes beyond providing just a brief battle history for each of the Civil War parks. Civil War Battlefields presents a detailed, clear narrative describing exactly what visitors can see and do in twelve important battlefield areas covering 22 campaigns and approxiamately 40 separate battles.
The new edition of this influential textbook, geared towards graduate or advanced undergraduate students, teaches the statistics necessary for financial engineering. In doing so, it illustrates concepts using financial markets and economic data, R Labs with real-data exercises, and graphical and analytic methods for modeling and diagnosing modeling errors. These methods are critical because financial engineers now have access to enormous quantities of data. To make use of this data, the powerful methods in this book for working with quantitative information, particularly about volatility and risks, are essential. Strengths of this fully-revised edition include major additions to the R code and the advanced topics covered. Individual chapters cover, among other topics, multivariate distributions, copulas, Bayesian computations, risk management, and cointegration. Suggested prerequisites are basic knowledge of statistics and probability, matrices and linear algebra, and calculus. There is an appendix on probability, statistics and linear algebra. Practicing financial engineers will also find this book of interest.
Although the evolution of human rights diplomacy during the second half of the 20th century has been the subject of a wealth of scholarship in recent years, British foreign policy perspectives remain largely underappreciated. Focusing on former Foreign Secretary David Owen's sustained engagement with the related concepts of human rights and humanitarianism, David Owen, Human Rights and the Remaking of British Foreign Policy addresses this striking omission by exploring the relationship between international human rights promotion and British foreign policy between c.1956-1997. In doing so, this book uncovers how human rights concerns have shaped national responses to foreign policy dilemmas at the intersections of civil society, media, and policymaking; how economic and geopolitical interests have defined the parameters within which human rights concerns influence policy; how human rights considerations have influenced British interventions in overseas conflicts; and how activism on normative issues such as human rights has been shaped by concepts of national identity. Furthermore, by bringing these issues and debates into focus through the lens of Owen's human rights advocacy, analysis provides a reappraisal of one of the most recognisable, albeit enigmatic, parliamentarians in recent British history. Both within the confines of Whitehall and without, Owen's human rights advocacy served to alter the course of British foreign policy at key junctures during the late Cold War and post-Cold War periods, and provides a unique prism through which to interrogate the intersections between Britain's enduring search for a distinctive 'role' in the world and the development of the international human rights regime during the period in question.
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