David Amaglobeli's Books

From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs

Risk Factors

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Mr.Nicolas End,Mariusz Jarmuzek,Mr.Geremia Palomba

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From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs

Risk Factors

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Mr.Nicolas End,Mariusz Jarmuzek,Mr.Geremia Palomba

This paper examines the risk factors associated with fiscal costs of systemic banking crises using cross-country data. We differentiate between immediate direct fiscal costs of government intervention (e.g., recapitalization and asset purchases) and overall fiscal costs of banking crises as proxied by changes in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. We find that both direct and overall fiscal costs of banking crises are high when countries enter the crisis with large banking sectors that rely on external funding, have leveraged non-financial private sectors, and use guarantees on bank liabilities during the crisis. The better quality of banking supervision and the higher coverage of deposit insurance help, however, alleviate the direct fiscal costs. We also identify a possible policy trade-off: costly short-term interventions are not necessarily associated with larger increases in public debt, supporting the thesis that immediate intervention may be actually cost-effective over time.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513592319

ISBN 13

9781513592312

Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband

By: Edward Oughton,Mr. David Amaglobeli,Mr. Mariano Moszoro

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Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband

By: Edward Oughton,Mr. David Amaglobeli,Mr. Mariano Moszoro

We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400233623

The Future of Saving

The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Hua Chai,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Kamil Dybczak,Mauricio Soto,Alexander F. Tieman

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The Future of Saving

The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Hua Chai,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Kamil Dybczak,Mauricio Soto,Alexander F. Tieman

This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484388992

ISBN 13

9781484388990

Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Laura Jaramillo,Pooja Karnane,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Laura Jaramillo,Pooja Karnane,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

This paper examines the role of tax policy reforms in enhancing fiscal shock smoothing in a panel of 13 OECD economies during the period 1980-2017. The results suggest that tax reforms, in particular those that broaden the tax base, significantly enhance the ability of fiscal policy to mitigate the impact of growth shocks on disposable income. We find that the magnitude of shock smoothing increases from an average of 2 percent to 3-31⁄2 percent following the reform. The effects are considerably higher for tax base than tax rate changes, and also higher for indirect tax than direct tax changes. The effects are symmetric—that is, the increase in shock smoothing following a reform expanding the tax base (rate) is similar to the decline in shock smoothing after a reform narrowing the tax base (rate). Tax elasticity, collection efficiency, and the progressivity of the tax system are important channels through which tax reforms affect fiscal stabilization.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498315623

ISBN 13

9781498315623

Transforming Public Finance Through GovTech

By: David Amaglobeli,Ruud A. de Mooij,Andualem Mengistu,Mariano Moszoro,Manabu Nose,Soheib Nunhuck,Sailendra Pattanayak,Lorena Rivero del Paso,Frankosiligi Solomon,Ms. Rebecca Sparkman,Hervé Tourpe,Gerardo Uña

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Transforming Public Finance Through GovTech

Digital divide across countries and within countries continues to persist and even increased when the quality of internet connection is considered. The note shows that many governments have not been able to harness the full potential of digitalization. Governments could play important role to facilitate digital adoption by intervening both on supply (investing in infrastructure) and demand side (increase internet affordability). The note also documents significant dividends from digital adoption for revenue collection and spending efficiency, and for outcomes in education, health and social safety nets. The note also emphasizes that digitalization is not a substitute for good governance and that comprehensive reform plans embedded in National Digital Strategies (NDS) combined with legal and institutional reforms are needed to ensure that governments can reap full benefits from digitalization and manage the risks appropriately.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400245480

Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices

By: David Amaglobeli,Mengfei Gu,Emine Hanedar,Mr. Gee Hee Hong,Celine Thevenot

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Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices

By: David Amaglobeli,Mengfei Gu,Emine Hanedar,Mr. Gee Hee Hong,Celine Thevenot

The surge in energy and food prices, which was amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has prompted a flurry of policy responses by countries during 2022. The aim of these policy responses was to mitigate social and economic impact of higher prices. In this paper we document announcements of policy measures based on the Database of Energy and Food Price Actions (DEFPA), which was developed based on two rounds of survey responses of IMF country teams conducted in March/April and June/July of 2022. The paper also provides discussion on policy trade-offs when considering appropriate policy responses both for countries with strong and weak social safety nets. Key policy message is that providing targeted support to households in the form of cash transfers is the most cost-effective way of alleviating the burden on vulnerable households and have to be preferred over broad-based mechanisms that prevent international prices to pass through to domestic consumers.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400237768

Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis

By: David Amaglobeli,Joaquim Guilhoto,Samir Jahan,Salma Khalid,Mr. Waikei R Lam,Mr. Gregory M Legoff,Brent Meyer,Xuguang Simon Sheng,Pawel Smietanka,Sonya Waddell,Daniel Weitz

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Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis

By: David Amaglobeli,Joaquim Guilhoto,Samir Jahan,Salma Khalid,Mr. Waikei R Lam,Mr. Gregory M Legoff,Brent Meyer,Xuguang Simon Sheng,Pawel Smietanka,Sonya Waddell,Daniel Weitz

The energy price shock in 2022 led to government support for firms in some countries, sparking debate about the rationale and the nature of such support. The results from nationally representative firm surveys in the United States and Germany indicate that firms in these countries were generally resilient. Coping strategies adopted by firms included the pass-through of higher costs to consumers, adjustment of profit margins (United States) and investments in energy saving and efficiency (Germany). Firms in energy-intensive industries would have been significantly more affected if international energy prices were fully passed through to domestic prices in Europe. Survey responses further reveal that most firms are uncertain about the impact of recent policy announcments on green subsidies. Firms take advantage of fiscal incentives to accelerate their climate-related investment plans are often those that have previous plans to do so. These findings suggest better targeting and enhancing policy certainty will be important when facilitate the green transition among firms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400263149

How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts

A Granular Approach

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Wei Shi

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How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts

A Granular Approach

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Wei Shi

Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

147554295X

ISBN 13

9781475542950

Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Pooja Karnane,Florian Misch

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Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Pooja Karnane,Florian Misch

This paper describes a new, comprehensive database of tax policy measures in 23 advanced and emerging market economies over the last four decades. We extract this information from more than 900 OECD Economic Surveys and 37,000 tax-related news from the International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation using text-mining techniques. The innovation of this dataset lies in its granularity: changes in the rates and bases of personal and corporate income taxes, value added and sale taxes, social security contributions, excise, and property taxes are systematically documented. In addition, the database provides information on the announcement and implementation dates, whether the measures represent major changes, are part of a broader tax package, and phased in over several years. The paper also presents a range of stylized facts suggesting that information from this database is useful to deepen the analysis of tax policy changes for research and policy purposes.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484356470

ISBN 13

9781484356470

Fiscal Policy and Development

Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs

By: Vitor Gaspar,Mr.David Amaglobeli,Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano,Delphine Prady,Mauricio Soto

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Fiscal Policy and Development

Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs

By: Vitor Gaspar,Mr.David Amaglobeli,Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano,Delphine Prady,Mauricio Soto

The goal of this paper is to estimate the additional annual spending required for meaningful progress on the SDGs in these areas. Our estimates refer to additional spending in 2030, relative to a baseline of current spending to GDP in these sectors. Toward this end, we apply an innovative costing methodology to a sample of 155 countries: 49 low- income developing countries, 72 emerging market economies, and 34 advanced economies. And we refine the analysis with five country studies: Rwanda, Benin, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Guatemala.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484394437

ISBN 13

9781484394434

Cross-Country Evidence on the Revenue Impact of Tax Reforms

By: Mr. David Amaglobeli,Mr. Valerio Crispolti,Xuguang Simon Sheng

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Cross-Country Evidence on the Revenue Impact of Tax Reforms

By: Mr. David Amaglobeli,Mr. Valerio Crispolti,Xuguang Simon Sheng

Many countries face the challenge of raising additional tax revenues without hurting economic growth. Comprehensive, cross-country information on the revenue impact of tax policy changes can thus support informed decision-making on viable reforms. We assess the likely revenue impact of various tax policy changes based on a sample of 21 advanced and emerging market economies, using granular information from the IMF Tax Policy Reform Database v.4.0. Our findings suggest that the revenue yield of a tax policy change varies significantly depending on the tax instrument adopted (e.g., VAT or personal income tax) and the nature of the change (i.e., rate, base). For example, in our sample, base-broadening changes to personal and corporate income taxes as well as to excise and property taxes have generally a more significant and long-lasting revenue yields than rate changes. By contrast, rate changes appear to have a relatively more significant revenue impact in the case of VAT and social security contributions. We also observe an asymmetry in the revenue impact of most tax policy measures when controlling for the direction of tax changes (i.e., its significance varies depending on whether taxes are increased or decreased). While our results are based on qualitative information of tax policy changes (i.e., dummy variables), the revenue yields of rate measures are not materially different from those that would be obtained using quantitative information on the size of the change.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400222023

Fiscal Policy for Mitigating the Social Impact of High Energy and Food Prices

By: Mr. David Amaglobeli,Emine Hanedar,Mr. Gee Hee Hong,Celine Thevenot

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Fiscal Policy for Mitigating the Social Impact of High Energy and Food Prices

By: Mr. David Amaglobeli,Emine Hanedar,Mr. Gee Hee Hong,Celine Thevenot

Fiscal policy has a crucial role in lessening the impact on the most vulnerable households. Governments must balance by ensuring access to energy and food, normalizing fiscal policy after unprecedented support in 2020, and promoting green transformation.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400211614

Internet Adoption Trends During COVID-19

By: David Amaglobeli,Mengfei Gu,Mariano Moszoro,Yue Zhou,Patricia L Escalante

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Internet Adoption Trends During COVID-19

By: David Amaglobeli,Mengfei Gu,Mariano Moszoro,Yue Zhou,Patricia L Escalante

This paper examines the common perception that internet adoption accelerated globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. The data show little evidence of a faster expansion of access to internet (extensive margin) across all country income groups but strong evidence of acceleration in the improvement in the quality of connectivity (intensive margin). The data also support that, despite a decline in internet prices over the past decade, affordability of digital services remains a concern for low-income developing countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400238857

Policies to Address the Refugee Crisis in Europe Related to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

By: Nicolo Bird,Mr. David Amaglobeli

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Policies to Address the Refugee Crisis in Europe Related to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

By: Nicolo Bird,Mr. David Amaglobeli

Refugees from Ukraine face multiple vulnerabilities, with many requiring humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, host countries in Europe and beyond have adopted measures to support refugees, including residency rights, free movement across countries, access to labor markets and integration policies, health and education services, housing options, banking services, and social protection systems. Drawing on previous IMF work on the economic challenges of refugees, this note provides an overview of policy responses needed to provide effective support to refugees fleeing Ukraine.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400218644

Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms

By: Mr. Antonio David,Can Sever

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Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms

By: Mr. Antonio David,Can Sever

We examine electoral cycles in tax reforms using monthly data over the period of 1990-2018 for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets. We show that governments tend to avoid announcing tax reforms during the months running up to elections. In addition, they become more likely to announce those reforms in the first few months following elections, indicating that “political capital” plays a role in the timing of reforms. These patterns are broad-based regarding the changes in tax base and rate, and for various types of taxes. We also find that the pre-election decrease in the likelihood of tax reform announcements is stronger in emerging markets, and weaker in the countries with relatively better institutional quality. Finally, our results indicate that neither fiscal rules nor IMF programs appear to have differential effects on electoral cycles in tax reforms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400223952

Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks

By: Mr. Antonio David,Can Sever

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Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks

By: Mr. Antonio David,Can Sever

Unanticipated changes in tax policy are likely to have different macroeconomic effects compared to anticipated changes due to several mechanisms, including fiscal foresight and policy uncertainty. It is therefore important to understand what drives such policy surprises. We explore the nature of unanticipated tax policy changes by focusing on a political economy determinant of those events, namely the timing of elections. Using monthly data for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets over the period 1990-2018, we show that implementation lags tend to be significantly longer for tax policy change announcements that are made during the pre-election periods, thereby leading to a lower likelihood of “tax news shocks”. We also find that implementation lags become much shorter for tax policy changes that are announced in the aftermath of elections, generating more frequent tax news shocks. This pattern remains similar for different tax measures or types of taxes. The findings are robust to a number of checks, including alternative definitions of tax news shocks, or to controlling for various economic and institutional factors.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400244919

Propaganda State in Crisis

Soviet Ideology, Indoctrination, and Terror under Stalin, 1927-1941

By: David Brandenberger

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Propaganda State in Crisis

Soviet Ideology, Indoctrination, and Terror under Stalin, 1927-1941

By: David Brandenberger

The USSR is often regarded as the world's first propaganda state. Particularly under Stalin, politically charged rhetoric and imagery dominated the press, schools, and cultural forums from literature and cinema to the fine arts. Yet party propagandists were repeatedly frustrated in their efforts to promote a coherent sense of "Soviet" identity during the interwar years. This book investigates this failure to mobilize society along communist lines by probing the secrets of the party's ideological establishment and indoctrinational system. An exposé of systemic failure within Stalin's ideological establishment, Propaganda State in Crisis ultimately rewrites the history of Soviet indoctrination and mass mobilization between 1927 and 1941.

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373

Publisher

Yale University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0300155379

ISBN 13

9780300155372

Funding the Future: Tax Revenue Mobilization in the Pacific Island Countries

By: Mouhamadou Sy,Mr. Andrew Beaumont,Enakshi Das,Mr. Georg Eysselein,Mr. David Kloeden,Katrina R Williams

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Funding the Future: Tax Revenue Mobilization in the Pacific Island Countries

By: Mouhamadou Sy,Mr. Andrew Beaumont,Enakshi Das,Mr. Georg Eysselein,Mr. David Kloeden,Katrina R Williams

Pacific Island Countries (PICs) face daunting spending needs related to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and adapting to the effects of climate change. Boosting tax revenues will need to be an essential pillar in creating the fiscal space to meet SDG and climate-adaptation spending needs. This paper assesses the additional tax revenue that PICs could potentially collect and discusses policy options to achieve such gains. The main objectives of the paper are to (1) review the critical medium-term development spending requirements and available financing options, (2) document the main stylized facts about tax revenues in the PICs and estimate the additional tax revenue that countries could raise, (3) highlight the main bottlenecks preventing the PICs from further increasing their tax revenue collection with an emphasis on weaknesses in VAT systems, (4) draw lessons from successful emerging and developing countries that have managed to substantially and durably increased their tax revenues, and (5) propose tax policy and revenue administration reform priorities for Pacific Island Countries to boost tax revenues. The paper’s main findings are (1) The current revenue mix is skewed toward non-tax revenues, (2) PICs could collect an additional 3 percent of tax revenue in the short to medium term, (3) Many bottlenecks are preventing the PICs from boosting their tax revenue collection, and (4) The potential offered by efficient VAT systems is not fully exploited. To increase tax revenue in the Pacific Islands, the paper proposes the following reforms: (1) unwinding recent fiscal relief measures, (2) strengthening or introducing a VAT system; (3) rationalizing tax exemptions, (4) closing loopholes in the tax system, (5) reforming tax administration, and (6) introducing a medium-term revenue strategy.

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