This book tells the story of how a group of far-sighted, academic researchers came to the aid of an overwhelmed local government. It details the history of the Washington State Census Board, which began in 1943 as part of an emergency measure during a massive wartime in-migration. The narrative also shows the demographic legacy of the Board and, ultimately, provides an unforgettable look into the creation and evolution of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover how Washington State struggled to keep up with the unexpected needs for housing, transportation, schools, and public utilities for the hundreds of thousands of migrants who came to work in industries that practically developed overnight with the mobilization for World War II. The author recounts how Professor Calvin F. Schmid, who led the Washington State Census Board, and his team developed methods of population estimation that are still in use today. In the process, the narrative reveals how population figures were gathered, compared, and projected at a time when the hand calculator was considered cutting-edge technology. The book also details how methods were refined and improved over time as well as how those involved developed new ways to obtain and, more importantly, utilize the information. With the aid of archived materials, personal interviews, and rich personal accounts, this book will inform and inspir e practicing and academic demographers as well as planners, policy-makers, historians, and interested readers.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
In provocative terms that push the envelope of technical, administrative, and legal capabilities, Swanson and Walashek propose a re-vamped US census based neither on the current system, self-enumeration, nor its predecessor, door-to-door canvassing. Instead, they propose that it be built on a combination of four elements: (1) administrative records; (2) the continuously updated Master Address File; (3) survey data; and (4) modeling and imputation techniques. They use “Census-Enhanced Master Address File (CEMAF) as a descriptive term for their proposal, which is based on four principles and includes a proposal for an independent Census Bureau. They argue that evidence suggests that the methods used to conduct traditional census counts may be at the end of their useful working lives, as evidenced by increasing costs and declining response rates. Some of their ideas will seem farfetched. However, Swanson and Walashek believe this is the time to discuss radical proposals as governments re-examine the utility of traditional census counts and consider reductions, as is the case in Canada and England. This SpringerBriefs should be on the reading list of staff in statistical agencies grappling with rising costs and declining response rates, as well as census stakeholders concerned about costs, accuracy, and census utility.
Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between differing types of estimation from both the demographic and sample-survey traditions and is a self-contained primer that combines academic rigor with a wealth of real-world examples that are useful models for demographers. Between censuses, which are expensive, administratively complex, and thus infrequent, demographers and government officials must estimate population using either demographic modeling techniques or statistical surveys that sample a fraction of residents. These estimates play a central role in vital decisions that range from funding allocations and rate-setting to education, health and housing provision. They also provide important data to companies undertaking market research. However, mastering small-area and sub-national population estimation is complicated by scattered, incomplete and outdated academic sources—an issue this volume tackles head-on. Rapidly increasing population mobility is making inter-census estimation ever more important to strategic planners. This book will make the theory and techniques involved more accessible to anyone with an interest in developing or using population estimates.
This brief represents a comprehensive review of methods for estimating characteristics of the foreign-born population in the United States, specifically oriented toward characteristics by legal status. A variety of methods have been proffered over the past many decades, in a large variety of venues; this work brings them together, attempts to impart some order on the definition of “legal status,” and describes strengths and deficiencies both in methods and in data. The authors have a combined 50 years of experience in both demographic and statistical methodology.
This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and total population. The book contains more traditional applications such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory. Real world empirical examples are provided for every application; along with excel files containing data and program code, which are accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement for other courses including applied demography, business and economic forecasting and market research.
In the Politics, Aristotle sets out to discover what is the best form that the state can take. Similar to his mentor Plato, Aristotle considers the form that will produce justice and cultivate the highest human potential; however Aristotle takes a more empirical approach, examining the constitution of existing states and drawing on specific case-studies. In doing so he lays the foundations of modern political science.
This accessibly written book introduces readers to DNA—one of the most important technologies for the manipulation of all forms of life, from simple bacteria to plants and animals. It also addresses the most important social, ethical, political, economic, and other issues raised by this form of technology. The great strides made in our understanding of the structure and function of DNA in recent decades have led to applying this invaluable knowledge to use in serving humanity. For example, recent discoveries in the field of genetic editing have created the potential for the creation of life forms de novo, a possibility that results in profound ethical issues for the human race that are just beginning to be discussed. What other positive—and potentially negative—developments are coming our way with continuing advancements in DNA research? DNA Technology: A Reference Handbook provides an up-to-date historical overview and general technical background to the topic as well as a broad introduction to current issues related to the development of DNA technology, such as genetically modified organisms, the use of DNA technology in the forensic sciences, and genetic testing and genetic therapy. Written by David E. Newton, an author and former teacher who has dedicated a lifetime to authoring educational texts on science and technology, this book examines the history of DNA technology from its discovery in the 1950s to the present day and covers recent advances, such as new methods for gene editing, including CRISP-Cas9 technology. Readers need to have little or no background knowledge of the technology of genetic engineering to improve their understanding of DNA-based technologies and how DNA research influences many current issues and debates in agriculture, food science, forensics, public health, and other fields. The single-volume work is particularly well-suited to students and young adults because of the range of references included that serve further study, such as a glossary of terms, a chronology, and an extensive annotated bibliography.
This book tells the story of how a group of far-sighted, academic researchers came to the aid of an overwhelmed local government. It details the history of the Washington State Census Board, which began in 1943 as part of an emergency measure during a massive wartime in-migration. The narrative also shows the demographic legacy of the Board and, ultimately, provides an unforgettable look into the creation and evolution of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover how Washington State struggled to keep up with the unexpected needs for housing, transportation, schools, and public utilities for the hundreds of thousands of migrants who came to work in industries that practically developed overnight with the mobilization for World War II. The author recounts how Professor Calvin F. Schmid, who led the Washington State Census Board, and his team developed methods of population estimation that are still in use today. In the process, the narrative reveals how population figures were gathered, compared, and projected at a time when the hand calculator was considered cutting-edge technology. The book also details how methods were refined and improved over time as well as how those involved developed new ways to obtain and, more importantly, utilize the information. With the aid of archived materials, personal interviews, and rich personal accounts, this book will inform and inspir e practicing and academic demographers as well as planners, policy-makers, historians, and interested readers.
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
This book deals with macro and micro aspects of population change and their inter-face with socio-economic factors and impact. It examines theoretical notions and pursues their empirical manifestations and uses multidisciplinary approaches to population change and diversity. It investigates the organic nature of the relationships between socio-economic factors and population change and the feedback loops that affect socio-economic organisation and behaviour. The book brings together material often scattered in a number of sources and disciplines that helps to understand population change and their socio-economic aspects. In addition to dealing with the more conventional factors in population dynamics in the form of fertility, mortality and migration, the book examines socio-economic forces that influence them. It discusses population evolving attributes that affect population characteristics and social and behaviour and impact on the environment. Further, it deals with social organisation and pathways that lead to different social and economic development and standards of living of diverse populations.
The rapid increase in recent years in the number of children and adults accessing care for ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder), raises a number of questions. It is unclear whether the increase is due to an increased public and professional recognition and awareness of ADHD as a debilitating human condition or to an actual increase in the incidence of individuals suffering from ADHD. Depending on the reasons behind the increased burden on services, and whether more effective treatments can be found, the future costs to society could be enormous. The study presented in this book estimates the private and social costs of ADHD. The key focus of this book is to study the costs related to individuals with ADHD who have not been diagnosed and who have not received treatment. In this respect, the study makes a unique contribution to scientific knowledge by investigating the cost of untreated ADHD. The study investigates the extent to which individuals with undiagnosed ADHD in childhood fare differently compared to otherwise similar individuals without ADHD. A long list of important parameters in an individual's life, e.g. educational attainment, occupational status, income, family situation, criminal record, health is examined. The results of the study provide not just cost estimates of ADHD; per se, but also create a point of reference which will be highly relevant for the evaluation of any future treatment for ADHD. The clear picture emerging from this study is that ADHD is associated with considerable private and social costs, reflecting that Adults with ADHD exhibit weak performance across all applied measures. These findings remain even when adults with ADHD are compared to a control group of their own siblings Even though the study is performed for Denmark it is argued that generalizability of the established results beyond Denmark is valid.
More than a Game discusses how African American men and women sought to participate in sport and what that participation meant to them, the African American community, and the United States more generally. Recognizing the complicated history of race in America and how sport can both divide and bring people together, the book chronicles the ways in which African Americans overcame racial discrimination to achieve success in an institution often described as America's only true meritocracy. African Americans have often glorified sport, viewing it as one of the few ways they can achieve a better life. In reality, while some African Americans found fame and fortune in sport, most struggled just to participate – let alone succeed at the highest levels of sport. Thus, the book has two basic themes. It discusses the varied experiences of African Americans in sport and how their participation has both reflected and changed views of race.
Charles M. Schulz, the most widely syndicated and beloved cartoonist of all time, is also one of the least understood figures in American culture. Now, acclaimed biographer David Michaelis gives us the first full-length biography of the brilliant, unseen man behind Peanuts: at once a creation story, a portrait of a native genius, and a chronicle contrasting the private man with the central role he played in shaping the national imagination. Schulz and Peanuts is the definitive epic biography of an American icon and the unforgettable characters he created.
An astonishing tale of Wall Street and the explosion of new life-science technologies and other industries of the future as told by one of the most creative dealmakers of the past 60 years. When Fred Frank arrived on Wall Street in 1958, he became a key member of a small, whip-smart cadre of young financiers who began challenging the stodgy, risk-averse scions of old-world investment banking. He also became the first banker to specialize in biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and health care services. Frank’s perpetual search for the new—pioneering technologies and innovative business models—has transformed our world. A Philosopher on Wall Street is an intriguing tale of • a man who was a force of verve and ingenuity on Wall Street, who built and nurtured new industries that have impacted everyone; • Wall Street and its history since the late 1950s, the surprisingly fascinating story of how high technology in America was capitalized, and the formation and meteoric rise of the pharma and biotech industries; • the best and worst of Wall Street over the past sixty years, and thoughts about the future of how to fund innovation to benefit both people and the bottom line • colorful stories from top innovators, scientists, executives, and investors about deals, intrigue, genius, booms and busts. This is the story of one of the most creative dealmakers of the past sixty years, a master artist of finance whose erudition and grace helped shape our world, who has always believed that inspired science, entrepreneurship, and investing are the keys to a better future.
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