To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.
Easy-to-read and comprehensive, this book shows how the SAS System performs multivariate time series analysis and features the advanced SAS procedures STATSPACE, ARIMA, and SPECTRA. The interrelationship of SAS/ETS procedures is demonstrated with an accompanying discussion of how the choice of a procedure depends on the data to be analysed and the reults desired. Other topics covered include detecting sinusoidal components in time series models and performing bivariate corr-spectral analysis and comparing the results with the standard transfer function methodology. The authors? unique approach to integrating students in a variety of disciplines and industries. Emphasis is on correct interpretation of output to draw meaningful conclusions. The volume, co-pubished by SAS and JWS, features both theory and practicality, and accompanies a soon-to-be extensive library of SAS hands-on manuals in a multitude of statistical areas. The book can be used with a number of hardware-specific computing machines including CMS, Mac, MVS, Opem VMS Alpha, Opmen VMS VAX, OS/390, OS/2, UNIX, and Windows.
The only comprehensive bibliography on Reconstruction, this book provides the definitive guide to literature published from 1877 to 1998. In over 2,900 entries, the work covers a broad range of topics including politics, agriculture, labor, religion, education, race relations, law, family, gender studies, and local history. It encompasses the years of the Civil War through the conclusion of the 1876 election and the end of the federal government's official role in reforming the postwar South and protecting the rights of Black citizens. In detailed annotations, the book covers a range of literature from scholarly and popular studies to published memoirs, letters and documents, as well as reference sources and teaching tools. The issues of Reconstruction—civil rights, states' rights and federal-state relations, racism, nationalism, government aid to individuals—continue to be relevant today, and the literature on Reconstruction is large. This book provides a systematic and comprehensive bibliographic guide to that literature. It is organized by topics and geographical regions and states, thereby emphasizing the local diversity in the South. In addition to a variety of literature, it covers the relevant Supreme Court cases through 1883, provides full citations to federal acts and cases cited, and includes the texts of the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the Constitution. The book will be useful to scholars and students researching a wide range of topics in Southern history, constitutional history, and national politics in post Civil War United States.
The relationship between dogs and humans has been represented and contemplated since the beginning of human culture. Lasting expressions of this interest can be found in art, philosophy, literature, and science. With the rise of biological and social sciences in the nineteenth century, disciplinary frames of analysis have increasingly been brought to bear on this topic. These include, among others, evolutionism, biology, genetics, psychology, ethology, anthropology and sociology, with a more recent trend toward interdisciplinary treatments. At present, there is a large body of scientific literature about the relationship between humans and dogs based upon primarily biological, genetic and psychological approaches. It is only within the past decade that sociologists have shown a concerted interest in the social organization of dog-human interaction, and Playing with My Dog Katie is an example of this movement. This unique contribution to the literature - an in-depth case study of a single dog and her guardian (the author) at play uses an ethnomethodological approach, an important aspect of the research is providing the reader with various kinds of data - in written, photographic and video formats - in order to display the phenomenon of play as ordinary, mundane practice. Based upon these data, various theoretical, methodological and empirical issues regarding our understanding of dog-human play are explored. Some of these include: anthropomorphism and anthropomorphic language, the social organization of different 'kinds' (guardian, guide-dog, working dog) of dog-human relationships, the conceptualization of play as an interspecies activity, and intersubjectivity (loosely meaning mutual understanding) between dogs and humans.
Least squares estimation, when used appropriately, is a powerful research tool. A deeper understanding of the regression concepts is essential for achieving optimal benefits from a least squares analysis. This book builds on the fundamentals of statistical methods and provides appropriate concepts that will allow a scientist to use least squares as an effective research tool. Applied Regression Analysis is aimed at the scientist who wishes to gain a working knowledge of regression analysis. The basic purpose of this book is to develop an understanding of least squares and related statistical methods without becoming excessively mathematical. It is the outgrowth of more than 30 years of consulting experience with scientists and many years of teaching an applied regression course to graduate students. Applied Regression Analysis serves as an excellent text for a service course on regression for non-statisticians and as a reference for researchers. It also provides a bridge between a two-semester introduction to statistical methods and a thoeretical linear models course. Applied Regression Analysis emphasizes the concepts and the analysis of data sets. It provides a review of the key concepts in simple linear regression, matrix operations, and multiple regression. Methods and criteria for selecting regression variables and geometric interpretations are discussed. Polynomial, trigonometric, analysis of variance, nonlinear, time series, logistic, random effects, and mixed effects models are also discussed. Detailed case studies and exercises based on real data sets are used to reinforce the concepts. The data sets used in the book are available on the Internet.
This new edition provides a state-of-the-art introduction to psychology that merges the rigor of science with a broad human perspective. All the Myers’ hallmarks are here—the vivid presentation, intense attention to detail and currency in the field, research-based study aids and media learning tools, and above all, the inviting, authorial voice of David Myers that speaks to the life experiences of all kinds of students. DSM 5 Updates Available for Fall 2014 classes, this update version features new content from David Myers in response to the release of the DSM-5. This new content is integrated into the text without changing pagination or the structure of the chapters. A special DSM 5 Supplement by the David Myers is available for Fall 2013 and Spring and Summer 2014 courses. View the Page-Referenced Guide to the DSM-5 updates for Exploring Psychology.
DSM 5 Updates Available for Fall 2014 classes, this update version features new content from David Myers in response to the release of the DSM-5. This new content is integrated into the text without changing pagination or the structure of the chapters. A special DSM 5 Supplement by the David Myers is available for Fall 2013 and Spring and Summer 2014 courses.View the Page-Referenced Guide to the DSM-5 updates for Exploring Psychology in Modules.
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