Since the Scepter of Mercy was lost from Avornis, the kingdom has been at risk from its magic-using neighbors. King Lanius and King Grus retrieved the Scepter in a tale of great triumph and adventure. But the true story of their dual reign has never been told. Until now ...
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
In the decade after 1945, as the Cold War freeze set in, a new Europe slowly began to emerge from the ruins of the Second World War, based on a broad rejection of the fascist past that had so scarred the continent's recent history. In the East, this new consensus was enforced by Soviet-imposed Communist regimes. In the West, the process was less coercive, amounting more to a consensus of silence. On both sides, much was deliberately forgotten or obscured. The years which followed were in many ways golden years for western Europe. Democracy became embedded in Germany, and eventually triumphed over dictatorship in Spain, Portugal, and Greece. Britain and France faced up to the necessity of decolonization. The European Economic Community was founded and went from strength to strength, as the economies of western Europe bounced back from the devastation of the war. The countries of the East lagged far behind and seemed caught in a perpetual game of catch-up, but even there conditions had improved since the end of the war, albeit at a much slower rate. Above all, throughout this period the European world continued to be sustained by the broad anti-fascist consensus that had emerged in the years after 1945. However, as Dan Stone shows in this new history of the continent since the war, this fundamental consensus began to break down in the wake of the oil shocks of the 1970s, a process which has rapidly accelerated since the end of the Cold War. Globalization, deregulation, and the erosion of social-democratic welfare capitalism in the West, and the collapse of the purported Communist alternative in the East, have all fatally undermined the post-war anti-fascist value system that predominated across Europe in the first four decades after the end of the Second World War. Ominously, this has been accompanied by a rise in right-wing populism and a widespread revision of the anti-fascist narrative on which this value system was based. The danger of this shift is now evident: financial and social crisis, an increasing inability on the part of European populations to resist historical myth-making, and the re-emergence of fascist ideas. The result, as Dan Stone warns, is socially divisive, politically dangerous, and a genuine threat to the future of a civilized Europe.
An in-depth look at the decades-long effort to escalate hostilities with Russia and what it portends for the future. Since 1945, the US has justified numerous wars, interventions, and military build-ups based on the pretext of the Russian Red Menace, even after the Soviet Union collapsed at the end of 1991 and Russia stopped being Red. In fact, the two biggest post-war American conflicts, the Korean and Vietnam wars, were not, as has been frequently claimed, about stopping Soviet aggression or even influence, but about maintaining old colonial relationships. Similarly, many lesser interventions and conflicts, such as those in Latin America, were also based upon an alleged Soviet threat, which was greatly overblown or nonexistent. And now the specter of a Russian Menace has been raised again in the wake of Donald Trump’s election. The Plot to Scapegoat Russia examines the recent proliferation of stories, usually sourced from American state actors, blaming and manipulating the threat of Russia, and the long history of which this episode is but the latest chapter. It will show readers two key things: (1) the ways in which the United States has needlessly provoked Russia, especially after the collapse of the USSR, thereby squandering hopes for peace and cooperation; and (2) how Americans have lost out from this missed opportunity, and from decades of conflicts based upon false premises. These revelations, amongst other, make The Plot to Scapegoat Russia one of the timeliest reads of 2017.
Lost for more than five hundred years, the Scepter of Mercy lies beyond the reach of the kingdom of Avornis, in the lands corrupted by the Banished One. Cast from the heavens to an earthly exile, the Banished One seeks to use the scepter to reclaim his godhood. But the intertwined destiny of two men may interfere with his ascension… Lanius is the only son of King Mergus of Avornis. But he is the son of a seventh wife—and therefore illegitimate in the eyes of church and state. So after the king’s death, the nobles use young Lanius as their figurehead while they rule behind the scenes. Grus is a captain in the king’s navy, a man of common origins, as well as common sense. His is charged with guarding the border from Avornis’ enemies—including those who live in thrall of the Banished One. He’s watched his homeland weaken under incompetent rulers—and fears for the future as disturbing visions torment his dreams. Now, both Lanius and Grus must decide what’s best for the kingdom before the influence of the Banished One spreads to their people. And so begins the quest for the Scepter of Mercy…
A timely and provocative account of why the euro has failed and why, as a result, the Union will unravel Examining key economic indicators and assessing the situation across Europe, two British journalists assess why the euro has failed—and what will happen when the European Union completely unravels. “This book is a must-read for anyone who cares about the future of Europe and progressive politics. Larry Elliott and Dan Atkinson correctly predicted the euro would prove a calamity. They are right today that the euro crisis is far from over. Their demand for a radical change of approach must be taken seriously—by policy makers and politicians alike.”—Ed Balls, UK Shadow Chancellor from 2011 to 2015 “[The book] offers useful insight into why so many people thought the euro was a good idea in the first place.”—Harvard Business Review
Europe's center-left is rapidly falling out of love with the European single currency. Fifteen years after its creation, British journalists Larry Elliott and Dan Atkinson assess its performance to show why. Looking at a range of key indicators the authors show how the euro has failed to deliver on its promise of more jobs, more growth and greater equality. Instead it has undermined the European Union. Elliott and Atkinson compare the European Central Bank to the Federal Reserve, arguing that the architects of the euro subjugated economic measures to political considerations. Consequently, countries that didn’t meet the economic convergence criteria were still allowed entry. The end result is a dysfunctional currency union that is unable to cope with difficult economic circumstances. Assessing the situations in Greece, Germany, Italy, France, Ireland, and Iceland, as well as Britain, they show that the current policy of kicking the can down the road and hoping that something will turn up is proving increasingly unpopular with the currency's one-time fans in progressive politics. This engaging and accessibly written volume will be widely read by economists, pundits, and policymakers as Britian considers its future relationship with Europe.
The Rough Guide to Moscow is the definitive guide to one of Europe’s most fascinating and rewarding cities. The full-colour introduction covers the awe-inspiring Kremlin and The Red Square and includes the essential list of ‘what not to miss’. There are lively explorations of all the sights, from Moscow’s lavish palaces to world-class museums, as well as detailed accounts of Russian history and politics that have formed this intriguing city. You’ll find two full-colour sections that highlight the New Moscow Style – contemporary art, design, fashion, galleries, boutiques, bars and clubs – and the magnificent art-deco metro, famous for its arts, murals, mosaics and ornate chandeliers. With updated and easy-to-use maps, expanded listings of nightlife, restaurants and hotels in Moscow for all budgets, The Rough Guide to Moscow is the must-have item to this colourful and spirited city. Make the most of your time with The Rough Guide to Moscow.
Russia’s foreign policy is following the lead of the United States. As politicos and pundits wring their hands about alleged Russian collusion and meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections, Dan Kovalik reminds us that the US has been meddling in other countries’ elections and democratic processes for decades, and with terrible results. While the US holds itself out as a beacon of democracy and freedom in the world, the US’s actions stray quite far from this pretense. From Vietnam in the 1950s, when the US blocked elections which would have allowed the Vietnamese people to vote for a unified country and for their own president, to the overthrow of democratic governments in Iran and Guatemala and the consequent installation of brutal regimes which killed tens of thousands, the US has undermined democracies in ways which make the alleged Russian “meddling” (the sum total of which involve claims of social media posts and computer hacking) look like mere child’s play. The Plot to Control the World details these instances of US interference and other instances of meddling in other countries’ democratic processes, such as in Nicaragua, Haiti, Venezuela, Greece, the Congo, Honduras, and even in Russia in the very recent past. These examples put the current allegations against Vladimir Putin and Russia into historical context and challenge the reader to consider that, if the US does not want other countries to interfere in its elections, it may be high time for the US to stop its interference in other countries around the world.
A hideaway lake in the mountains above Los Angeles. A reclusive bachelor. A woman journalist on the run with a mystery boy... just a step ahead of a pair of hired killers. These are the initial ingredients of this full-throttle, nonstop chase thriller, which accelerates from the opening pages to its breathtaking finale. Eight-year-old Andrei ""Andy"" Morozov possesses a secret that could bring down the new Russian president, a media darling who conceals imperial ambitions. With geopolitical stakes this high, a secret directive is given--the boy must be hunted down and silenced forever. Thus, from the heart-pounding opening sequence, the thrilling helter-skelter race is on. Yet, as we see in vivid flashback, this is only the deadly home stretch of a six-months' pursuit that began explosively in Moscow and has careened across Europe and America to reach its lethal climax amid the neon dazzle of the Russian neighborhoods of West Hollywood.
In the summer of 2012, in the dead of night, three peace activists- a drifter, an 82-year-old nun, and a house painter- penetrated the exterior of Y-12 in Tennessee, supposedly one of the most secure nuclear-weapons facilities in the United States. What if they had been terrorists armed with explosives, intent on mass destruction? That nightmare scenario underlies the government’s response to the intrusion. THE PROPHETS OF OAK RIDGE is the story of two competing worldviews, of conscience vs. court, of fantasy vs. reality, of history vs. the future.
St. Petersburg is the linchpin for travel to and around Russia, and this guidebook covers it all in this detailed city-guide format. From the historic Peter and Paul fortress to the remarkable art collection at the Hermitage, "The Rough Guide to St. Petersburg" brings this extraordinary European city fully up-to-date and makes it the most timely guide available. Four pages of color maps. 35 maps and plan.
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