The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sovereigns, and a GVAR model to combine the banking, the sovereign, and the macro sphere. The CCA indicators capture the nonlinearity of changes in bank assets, equity capital, credit spreads, and default probabilities. They capture the expected losses, spreads and default probability for sovereigns. Key to the framework is that sovereign credit spreads, banking system credit risk, corporate sector credit risk, economic growth, and credit variables are combined in a fully endogenous setting. Upon estimation and calibration of the global model, we simulate various negative and positive shock scenarios, particularly to bank and sovereign risk. The goal is to use this framework to analyze the impact and spillover of shocks and to help identify policies that would mitigate banking system, sovereign credit risk and recession risk—policies including bank capital increases, purchase of sovereign debt, and guarantees.
What makes the difference between a winner and a wannabe? Winning coach and pastor Tom Mullins sums it up in one word: confidence. Taking lessons learned on the playing field and wisdom learned from the Word of God, Mullins shows how to create a life worth living, even in the toughest times. This thoughtful guide helps you find the courage to face the challenges of life and then shows you how to overcome them. Packed with insight and inspiration, The Confidence Factor empowers you to develop the winning edge in the game of life. "Tom Mullins greatly impressed me when I met him in person, and I pray that his devotional book will be a blessing to you." - Dr. Billy Graham "Helping people feel more confident is a tremendous gift that few leaders pass on to others. Tom Mullins has that ability. Every day I watch him uplift people. Now it's your turn. Read this book and give your confidence a boost." - Dr. John C. Maxwell
In "How May I Love You Today?" author Duchess Dale takes the reader on a whirlwind two-year journey that finds her jetting across North America, joyfully walking the halls of the U.S. Congress, confidently speaking before crowds in several cities, and conversely weeping in her solitary apartment. She invites us into some of her most public and private thoughts; how she got her name, her devotion to her animals, the loss of her church, the death of her mother, her new found love, her wedding, and at last her triumphant return to the pulpit.
Do you have an upcoming presentation at your workplace or school? Do you have stage fright and you are looking for some great tips and advices on public speaking? This edition is your answer on honing your conversational skills, confidence and ability to persuade people in everyday life. Millions of people have benefitted from these greatest motivational works on public speaking and we have combined them into one single edition for you. Now it's your turn to get inspired! Contents: Public Speaking: The Manual How To Speak In Public - Wit and Methods of Great Orators and Lecturers Self-Improvement Through Public Speaking The Art of Public Speaking - Acquiring Confidence Before An Audience & Methods in Achieving Efficiency and Speech Fluency Dale Carnegie was an American writer and lecturer and the developer of famous courses in self-improvement, salesmanship, corporate training, public speaking, and interpersonal skills. Henry Dickson was founder and principal of Dickson School of Memory. He was also the instructor in public speaking at Chicago University of Notre Dame. Dr. Orison Swett Marden was an American inspirational author who wrote about achieving success in life and founded SUCCESS magazine in 1897. He is often considered as the father of the modern-day inspirational talks and writings and his words make sense even to this day.
Presidential Performance in the Progressive Era: Leadership Stylefrom McKinley to Wilson continues Fred I. Greenstein’s multivolume Presidential Difference Project. It follows Greenstein’s matrix for evaluating presidential leadership: (1) public communication; (2) organizational capacity; (3) political skill and the extent to which it is harnessed to a (4) policy vision; (5) cognitive style; and (6) emotional intelligence. Here, these criteria are applied to the leadership styles of the four presidents of the Progressive Era: William McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, William H. Taft, and Woodrow Wilson. The book begins by outlining Greenstein’s matrix to assess presidential leadership style and providing an overview of the profound changes of and political challenges posed by the Progressive Era. Greenstein and coauthor Dale Anderson then examine each of the four presidents, first considering their lives and careers prior to the presidency to suggest influences on their character and leadership style. Next is a review of their performance as chief executive, highlighting key issues and policy decisions, and the discussion concludes with an analysis of their leadership according to the matrix. In the final chapter, the authors compare and contrast the four presidents as to each of the six criteria in the matrix.
This edition of Gateway to the West has been excerpted from the original numbers, consolidated, and reprinted in two volumes, with added Publisher's Note, Tables of Contents, and indexes, by Genealogical Publishing Co., SInc., Baltimore, MD.
Despite widespread skepticism on the matter, a significant number of people today have stories of religious experience—moments of inexplicable terror or rapturous joy, visions, near-death experiences of the afterlife, encounters with angels, heavenly voices, and premonitions. How should rationally minded people respond? What would your reaction be if someone told you that, one night while sitting alone, she saw through the window a brilliant light descend from the sky until it was so large that it filled the room—and that it radiated a feeling of “pure love”? And what would you say if a friend confided that one night he woke up and could not move, felt he was being suffocated, and sensed an evil spirit in the room? By default in the secular age we are skeptical about anything mysterious or supernatural. More likely than not, most people would respond to the stories above with embarrassment and concern about the person’s grasp of reality, or they would attempt to explain them away through rational or scientific means. But the truth is that religious experiences like these are not as uncommon as they seem—although talking about such experiences often is. This is the case even in a faith tradition such as Christianity, despite the Bible’s numerous accounts of miraculous and mysterious happenings. In Encountering Mystery, noted biblical scholar Dale Allison makes the argument that stories of religious experience are meaningful and not to be marginalized—and that we have a moral prerogative to lovingly engage with such stories regardless of whether we have had similar experiences. Through a close look at phenomena such as moments of inexplicable terror or rapturous joy, visions, near-death experiences of the afterlife, encounters with angels, heavenly voices, and premonitions, Allison shows how ordinary practices of faith need not be at odds with individual religious experiences. Above all, he enjoins us to be honest about the persistence of religious experience in a secular age and to make space for those who encounter mystery in their lives.
On the February 2, 1960, episode of The Danny Thomas Show, entertainer Danny Williams (Danny Thomas) is arrested for a traffic violation by a small-town sheriff named Andy Taylor, played by a good-natured Southern actor named Andy Griffith. Thus was born one of the most popular television shows of the 1960s--The Andy Griffith Show. From the time it officially debuted in October 1960, The Andy Griffith Show was a perennial favorite on CBS, finishing its eight-year run as the top-rated show on television. It also produced some of the most remembered characters (Andy, Opie, Aunt Bee, and Barney Fife) of the era. Each of the show's 249 episodes is fully detailed here, including air dates, cast and production personnel, guest stars, and a bevy of facts about that particular episode. The 1986 television movie Return to Mayberry is covered in detail. Brief biographies of the show's major stars, producers, directors and writers are also provided.
Hailed by corporate, philanthropic, and governmental organizations as a metaphor for democratic interaction and business dynamics, contemporary jazz culture has a story to tell about the relationship between political economy and social practice in the era of neoliberal capitalism. The Jazz Bubble approaches the emergence of the neoclassical jazz aesthetic since the 1980s as a powerful, if unexpected, point of departure for a wide-ranging investigation of important social trends during this period, extending from the effects of financialization in the music industry to the structural upheaval created by urban redevelopment in major American cities. Dale Chapman draws from political and critical theory, oral history, and the public and trade press, making this a persuasive and compelling work for scholars across music, industry, and cultural studies.
This paper builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. The main question to be answered with the integrated model is whether or not the central bank should include explicitly the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function. It is found in general, that including distance-to-default (dtd) of the banking system in the central bank reaction function reduces both inflation and output volatility. Moreover, the results are robust to different model calibrations: whenever exchange-rate pass-through is higher; financial vulnerability has a larger impact on the exchange rate, as well as on GDP (or the reverse, there is more effect of GDP on bank's equity - i.e., what we call endogeneity), it is more efficient to include dtd in the reaction function.
The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Over the forty-plus years of his adult vocation as an Episcopal priest, Dale Coleman has wanted to write about his journey from the Salvation Army to the Episcopal Church. He wished to be in a Christian church with "elbow room" that would allow questions, true spiritual growth, and "faith seeking understanding." Dale is fearless in looking at the Episcopal Church, and especially his seminary days at a "smells and bells" traditional Anglican Seminary. He writes boldly and freely about the boy he was and the man he has become, placing his first allegiance in the Lord Jesus Christ. Christians need to be honest and clear about their faith in the growing toxicity of our culture. His first questions from his youth were "Where did the Bible come from, and how is it to be read and interpreted?" These and many other questions about the Christian church, its faith and life are addressed in this book. If you've ever wondered about such matters, this is the book for you!
This book is a practical guide for preachers, both ordained and layleaders alike. Sermons That Illuminate explores the various genres of Scripture and examines methods and models of preaching from “the greats.” It also looks inward to consider the importance of wellness and self-care, with some suggestions for moving toward healthy preaching. Whether you’re a veteran preacher or preaching your first sermon, you’ll be invigorated as you explore the art of preaching.
The earliest traditions around the narrative of Jesus' resurrection are considered in this landmark work by Dale C. Allison, Jr, drawing together the fruits of his decades of research into this issue at the very core of Christian identity. Allison returns to the ancient sources and earliest traditions, charting them alongside the development of faith in the resurrection in the early church and throughout Christian history. Beginning with historical-critical methodology that examines the empty tomb narratives and early confessions, Allison moves on to consider the resurrection in parallel with other traditions and stories, including Tibetan accounts of saintly figures being assumed into the light, in the chapter “Rainbow Body”. Finally, Allison considers what might be said by way of results or conclusions on the topic of resurrection, offering perspectives from both apologetic and sceptical viewpoints. In his final section of “modest results” he considers scholarly approaches to the resurrection in light of human experience, adding fresh nuance to a debate that has often been characterised in overly simplistic terms of “it happened” or “it didn't”.
Having been taught the strict Traditional View, the author studied the Scripture and concluded that this view is lacking both biblically and in practiceas are the Traditional Dissolution-Divorce, the Betrothal, and the Consanguinity views. Studying all the pertinent passages, the author adopted what he calls the More Liberal Dissolution-Divorce View. The two testaments teach the same view on divorce and remarriage with one exception. The New Testament passages of Jesus and the Apostle Paul are interpreted in harmony with Greek grammar and the meaning of words. The author concluded that the divorce teaching of Scripture is addressed only to believers, and that it is time to stop the hypocrisy (fostered by the other views) of professing a certain belief but not daring to implement that belief in practice. The author knows of no study in print that reaches these important conclusions.
Hopkinton, NY is a quiet little town in the northeast part of the state, settled by New Englanders and built in the New England style with a village green, white wood frame churches, and large Victorian houses. Life here has generally moved at a leisurely pace; yet Hopkinton's people have had their dramas - both comedy and tragic - and their stories have been remembered. In 1903, Carlton Sanford had a book published documenting the settling of the town from a wilderness in 1802 through its first hundred years of development and tracing the descendants of the first settlers. Now Dale Burnett has written a folk history of the second hundred years, chronicling the events in the lives of Hopkinton's people and the town itself through the 20th century. Mr. Burnett has researched each separate district of the township and spoken with at least one person from each area to get its history from someone who lived there. In addition to the facts one would expect - businesses, history of the fire department, town officers - he has taken almost every house along each road in the town and listed the residents through the years, along with any tales that may have been told about them. Based mainly on interviews with older Hopkinton folk, some of whom were alive when Sanford's book came out, the stories handed down have been preserved as the old people told them. Facts are supported by newspaper articles, deeds and other documents. Included are tales of Hopkinton's characters, its three or four murders, and its one kidnapping case with still unanswered questions. And, following Mr. Sanford's example, at the end of "The Second Hundred Years" are genealogies submitted by Hopkinton families, many of whom can still trace their ancestry to those early settlers.
Why do people avoid conflict? For an overwhelming majority of people, conflict is not a pleasant experience. Most people do not want to engage in anything that produces tension and disagreement. Many fear conflict because of past experiences. This subject can weigh heavy on the mental welfare of a person. The goal of this book is to address an uncomfortable subject from a biblical approach. However, there are some positive sides to conflict! There are several stories in the Old Testament from Adam and Eve to King David that teach lessons about how conflict can produce positive results. Conflict does not have to be destructive. It can be a tremendous teacher for those who are willing to learn from it.
This book is an introduction to public speaking by the master of the art, Dale Carnegie. It contains a wealth of information on the voice, delivery, distinctness and much more. This is a fascinating work and is thoroughly recommended for anyone interested in the skills of public speaking. Dale Breckenridge Carnegie was an American writer, lecturer, and the developer of famous courses in self-improvement, salesmanship, corporate training, public speaking, and interpersonal skills. Born into poverty on a farm in Missouri, he was the author of How to Win Friends and Influence People (1936), a massive bestseller that remains popular today. He also wrote How to Stop Worrying and Start Living (1948), Lincoln the Unknown (1932), and several other books. One of the core ideas in his books is that it is possible to change other peoples' behavior by changing one's behavior toward them.
A history of the erosion of democracy across the globe Democracy is being destroyed. This is a crisis that expresses itself in the rising authoritarianism visible in divisive and exclusionary politics, populist political parties and movements, increased distrust in fact-based information and news, and the withering accountability of state institutions. Over the last four decades, democracy has radically shifted to a market democracy in which all aspects of human, non-human and planetary life are commodified, with corporations becoming more powerful than states and their citizens. This is how neoliberal capitalism functions at a systemic level and if left unchecked, is the greatest threat to democracy and a sustainable planet. Volume six of the Democratic Marxism series focuses on how decades of neoliberal capitalism have eroded the global democratic project and how, in the process, authoritarian politics are gaining ground. Scholars and activists from the political left focus on four country cases – India, Brazil, South Africa and the United States of America – in which the COVID-19 pandemic has fuelled and highlighted the pre-existing crisis. They interrogate issues of politics, ecology, state security, media, access to information and political parties, and affirm the need to reclaim and re-build an expansive and inclusive democracy. Destroying Democracy is an invaluable resource for the general public, activists, scholars and students who are interested in understanding the threats to democracy and the rising tide of authoritarianism in the global south and the global north.
Based on the author’s research in Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and other urban areas in Vietnam, this study of contemporary Vietnamese popular music explores the ways globalization and free market economics have influenced the music and subcultures of Vietnamese youth, focusing on the conflict between the politics of remembering, nurtured by the Vietnamese Communist government, and the politics of forgetting driven by the capitalist interests of the music industry. Vietnamese youth at the end of the second and beginning of the third millennium are influenced by the challenges generated by a number of seemingly opposite ideologies and realities, such as "the past" versus "the present," socialism versus capitalism, and cultural traditionalism versus globalization. Vietnam has undergone a radical demographic shift with a very pronounced youth movement, and consequently, Vietnamese popular culture has been radically reshaped by a young population coming of age in the twenty-first century. As Olsen reveals, the way Vietnamese young people cope with these opposing and contrasting forces is often expressed in their active and passive music making.
This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.
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