Constance de Soyres's Books

Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

By: Constance de Soyres,Reina Kawai,Mengxue Wang

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Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

By: Constance de Soyres,Reina Kawai,Mengxue Wang

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400207082

Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

By: Constance de Soyres,Reina Kawai,Mengxue Wang

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Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

By: Constance de Soyres,Reina Kawai,Mengxue Wang

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400207082

Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

By: Constance de Soyres,Anna Rogantini Picco,MissRanda Sab

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Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

By: Constance de Soyres,Anna Rogantini Picco,MissRanda Sab

This paper focuses on the debt build-up that frontier low-income developing countries (LIDCs) have faced since 2012. First, it documents a 20-percentage point increase in the external and government debt-to-GDP ratios, a composition shift toward higher non-concessional debt, and a rise in interest rate payments. Second, using panel regressions, it shows that while both global and country-specific factors are correlated with debt-to-GDP ratios over 1998–2016, global factors dominate for the period 2012–16. Third, through a small open-economy model, it shows that the projected tightening in global financial conditions would reduce debt-to-GDP ratios by less than the increase associated with the expected rise in investment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484396243

ISBN 13

9781484396247

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

By: Mr.Henry Mooney,Constance de Soyres

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Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

By: Mr.Henry Mooney,Constance de Soyres

This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.

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148432479X

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9781484324790

Book's by Constance de Soyres

Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

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