Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Office's Books

Review of the U.S. CLIVAR Project Office

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Office

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Review of the U.S. CLIVAR Project Office

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Office

A growing appreciation for how variations in climate affect society and the environment has increased the demand for fast and accurate predictions of climate variability. The Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, established internationally in 1995 and expanded to include a U.S. component in 1998, focuses on improving understanding and skill in predicting climate variability on seasonal to centennial time scales. This report evaluates the performance of the U.S. CLIVAR Project Office (PO) in fulfilling its charge from supporting agencies. The report concludes that the project office is vital for coordinating US CLIVAR activities and is effective despite limited resources. It also provides suggestions for enhancing the communications from and visibility of US CLIVAR activities and for developing strategic directions for the future.

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309095018

ISBN 13

9780309095013

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

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192

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

030915183X

ISBN 13

9780309151832

Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

Water managers rely on predicting changes in the hydrologic cycle on seasonal-to-interannual time frames to prepare for water resource needs. Seasonal to interannual predictability of the hydrologic cycle is related to local and remote influences involving land processes and ocean processes, such as the El NiÃ±o Southern Oscillation. Although advances in understanding land-surface processes show promise in improving climate prediction, incorporating this information into water management decision processes remains a challenge since current models provide only limited information for predictions on seasonal and longer time scales. To address these needs, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) was established in 2001 to improve how changes in water resources are predicted on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales for the continental United States. The GAPP program has developed a science and implementation plan to guide its science activities, which describes strategies for improving prediction and decision support in the hydrologic sciences. This report by the National Research Council provides a review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan, outlining suggestions to strengthen the plan and the GAPP program overall.

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142

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309096782

ISBN 13

9780309096782

Investigating the oceans

tenth report of session 2006-07, Vol. 2: Oral and written evidence

By: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Science and Technology Committee,Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Select Committee on Science and Technology

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Investigating the oceans

tenth report of session 2006-07, Vol. 2: Oral and written evidence

By: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Science and Technology Committee,Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Select Committee on Science and Technology

Investigating the Oceans : Tenth report of session 2006-07, Vol. 2: Oral and written Evidence

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286

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

021503659X

ISBN 13

9780215036599

Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the Draft Climate Science Special Report

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Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the Draft Climate Science Special Report

The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is moving towards a sustained assessment process that allows for more fluid and consistent integration of scientific knowledge into the mandated quadrennial National Climate Assessment. As part of this process, the USGCRP is developing the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), a technical report that details the current state-of-science relating to climate change and its physical impacts. The CSSR is intended to focus on climate change in the United States and to inform future USGCRP products. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report assesses whether the draft CSSR accurately presents the scientific literature in an understandable, transparent and traceable way; whether the CSSR authors handled the data, analyses, and statistical approaches in an appropriate manner; and the effectiveness of the report in conveying the information clearly for the intended audience. This report provides recommendations for how the draft CSSR could be strengthened.

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133

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309456649

ISBN 13

9780309456647

Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities

By: Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,Climate Research Committee,National Research Council

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Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities

The purpose of this letter report is to state the findings and recommendations of the Climate Research Committee's (CRC) brief review of the U.S. contributions to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The primary objectives of the review were to: (1) assess the coordination (national-international and project-to-project) of the U.S. scientific contributions to the WCRP; (2) identify potential science gaps and/or redundancies in the U.S. contributions to the WCRP, and; (3) identify existing or emerging issues and needs that might require more in-depth attention. Due to the limited time available for this review, the CRC focused on the first of these objectives.

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309183367

ISBN 13

9780309183369

International policies and activities of the research councils

ninth report of session 2006-07, Vol. 2: Oral and written evidence

By: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Science and Technology Committee

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International policies and activities of the research councils

ninth report of session 2006-07, Vol. 2: Oral and written evidence

By: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Science and Technology Committee

International policies and activities of the research Councils : Ninth report of session 2006-07, Vol. 2: Oral and written Evidence

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180

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

0215035739

ISBN 13

9780215035738

Ocean Acidification

A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on the Development of an Integrated Science Strategy for Ocean Acidification Monitoring

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Ocean Acidification

A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on the Development of an Integrated Science Strategy for Ocean Acidification Monitoring

The ocean has absorbed a significant portion of all human-made carbon dioxide emissions. This benefits human society by moderating the rate of climate change, but also causes unprecedented changes to ocean chemistry. Carbon dioxide taken up by the ocean decreases the pH of the water and leads to a suite of chemical changes collectively known as ocean acidification. The long term consequences of ocean acidification are not known, but are expected to result in changes to many ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean reviews the current state of knowledge, explores gaps in understanding, and identifies several key findings. Like climate change, ocean acidification is a growing global problem that will intensify with continued CO2 emissions and has the potential to change marine ecosystems and affect benefits to society. The federal government has taken positive initial steps by developing a national ocean acidification program, but more information is needed to fully understand and address the threat that ocean acidification may pose to marine ecosystems and the services they provide. In addition, a global observation network of chemical and biological sensors is needed to monitor changes in ocean conditions attributable to acidification.

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163

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

030915359X

ISBN 13

9780309153591

Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program

An Initial Assessment

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Hydrologic Science

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Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program

An Initial Assessment

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Hydrologic Science

The availability of fresh water is potentially one of the most pervasive crises of the coming century. Water-related decisions will determine the future of major ecosystems, the health of regional economies, and the political stability of nations. A vigorous program of research in hydrologic sciences can provide the basis for sound water management at local, regional, national, and international levels. The Committee on Hydrologic Science was established by the National Research Council in 1999 to identify priorities for hydrologic science that will ensure its vitality as a scientific discipline in service of societal needs. This charge will be performed principally through a series of studies that provide scientific advice on the hydrologic aspects of national program and U.S. hydrologic contributions to international programs. This first report contains a preliminary assessment of the hydrologic science content of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Because this is a short and focused report, little effort is spent to reaffirm the established and successful elements of the USGCRP. In fact, the Committee generally endorses the findings of the National Research Council (NRC) report Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1998a; the so-called Pathways report) in this respect. Instead the attention here is directed toward the most critical missing hydrologic science elements in the FY2000 USGCRP. This brings the focus to the terrestrial component of the water cycle. The integrative nature of terrestrial hydrology could significantly strengthen the USGCRP.

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309172691

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9780309172691

Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft

Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on a Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Sensor Descopes and Demanifests on the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft

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Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft

Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring

In 2000, the nation's next-generation National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program anticipated purchasing six satellites for $6.5 billion, with a first launch in 2008. By November 2005, however, it became apparent that NPOESS would overrun its cost estimates by at least 25 percent. In June 2006, the planned acquisition of six spacecraft was reduced to four, the launch of the first spacecraft was delayed until 2013, and several sensors were canceled or descoped in capability. Based on information gathered at a June 2007 workshop, "Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft," this book prioritizes capabilities, especially those related to climate research, that were lost or placed at risk following the 2006 changes. This book presents and recommends a prioritized, short-term strategy for recovery of crucial climate capabilities lost in the NPOESS and GOES-R program descopes. However, mitigation of these recent losses is only the first step in establishing a viable long-term climate strategy-one that builds on the lessons learned from the well-intentioned but poorly executed merger of the nation's weather and climate observation systems.

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190

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309121841

ISBN 13

9780309121842

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

By: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies

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A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

By: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies

As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.

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252

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309259789

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9780309259781

Thriving on Our Changing Planet

A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on the Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space

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Thriving on Our Changing Planet

A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.

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717

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309467578

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9780309467575

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

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Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

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351

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309388805

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9780309388801

Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities

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Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309074045

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9780309074049

Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Methods and Preliminary Results

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

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Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Methods and Preliminary Results

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) coordinates the efforts of 13 federal agencies to understand why climate is changing, to improve predictions about how it will change in the future, and to use that information to assess impacts on human systems and ecosystems and to better support decision making. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program is the first review of the CCSP's progress since the program was established in 2002. It lays out a method for evaluating the CCSP, and uses that method to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the entire program and to identify areas where progress has not met expectations. The committee found that the program has made good progress in documenting and understanding temperature trends and related environmental changes on a global scale, as well as in understanding the influence of human activities on these observed changes. The ability to predict future climate changes also has improved, but efforts to understand the impacts of such changes on society and analyze mitigation and adaptation strategies are still relatively immature. The program also has not met expectations in supporting decision making, studying regional impacts, and communicating with a wider group of stakeholders.

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178

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309108268

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9780309108263

Implementing Climate and Global Change Research

A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

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Implementing Climate and Global Change Research

A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

The report reviews a draft strategic plan from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, a program formed in 2002 to coordinate and direct U.S. efforts in climate change and global change research. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program incorporates the decade-old Global Change Research Program and adds a new component -the Climate Change Research Initiative-whose primary goal is to "measurably improve the integration of scientific knowledge, including measures of uncertainty, into effective decision support systems and resources.

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108

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309168384

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9780309168380

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.

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ISBN 10

0309179858

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9780309179850

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product on Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Climate Research Committee,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product on Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product on Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), established in 2002 to coordinate climate and global change research conducted in the United States and to support decision-making on climate-related issues, is producing twenty-one synthesis and assessment reports that address its research, observation, and decision-support needs. The first report, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in coordination with other agencies, focuses on understanding reported differences between independently produced data sets of temperature trends for the surface through the lower stratosphere and comparing these data sets to model simulations. To ensure credibility and quality, NOAA asked the National Research Council to conduct an independent review of the report. The committee concluded that the report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Understanding and Reconciling Differences is a good first draft that covers an appropriate range of issues, but that it could be strengthened in a number of ways.

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ISBN 10

0309181828

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9780309181822

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate"

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate"

This National Research Council (NRC) report reviews a draft of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, the 3rd in a series of 21 CCSP products addressing important topics related to climate change. The NRC report finds that the draft provides a good and thorough assessment of the important issues regarding extreme events over North America and how they may change in the context of a changing climate. The continuity and cohesion among the chapters could be improved by greater coordination among the chapter authorship teams, who should also ensure that the tone and scope of the chapters are consistent with the document's Abstract and Executive Summary. The authors should strive to consolidate the sections on tropical cyclones; however, the discussion of drought and ecological impacts could be expanded. Overall, the committee finds that the scope, content, and scientific rigor of the current draft provide a solid basis for the final version of Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3.

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ISBN 10

0309110041

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9780309110044

Book's by Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Office

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