Since the 1950s,the International Joint Commission (IJC) of Canada and the United States has issued water regulation and management plans for Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. Changes in recreational, environmental, navigational and other uses of the water system have prompted the IJC to consider replacing the current water regulation plan in operation for more than 40 years. IJC's goals for a replacement plan include sound scientific foundations, public participation, transparency in plan development and evaluation, and inclusion of environmental considerations. To help develop and select the new plan, the IJC supported a 5-year, $20 million Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study (LOSLR Study). The LOSLR Study uses models to compile and integrate data gathered from a series of commissioned studies of wetlands, species at risk, recreational boating, fisheries, coastal erosion and flooding, commercial navigation, hydropower, industrial, municipal and domestic water intakes, public information and education, and hydrologic modeling. This report reviews a portion of the study that focused on wetlands and species at risk and three of the models that were used. The report finds that the overall breadth of the LOSLR study is impressive, and commends the scale and inclusiveness of the studies and models. In terms of informing decision making, however, the reviewed studies and models show deficiencies when evaluated against ten evaluation criteria, including treatment of uncertainty, quality control/quality assurance, thorough documentation, and empirical foundations. Among the report's recommendations is a need for more thorough documentation of study methods and findings, stronger and more consistent quality control, and more attention to how uncertainty should be addressed to better inform decision making. This NRC study was conducted in collaboration with the Royal Society of Canada.
The St. Johns River Water Management District is responsible for managing water resources in the St. Johns River basin, which comprises 23 percent of Florida. Approximately 4.73 million people (one-quarter of Florida's population) live in the area served by the District, which contains the growing cities of Jacksonville, Orlando, and Gainesville. In order to meet the increasing water supply needs of the District's residents and other water users, the District is considering supplementing its historical supply of groundwater with water from the St. Johns and Ocklawaha Rivers. To better understand the potential ecological impacts of such withdrawals, in 2008 the District began a large scientific study called the Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS). In late 2008, the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) of the National Academies was asked to review the progress of the WSIS, including such scientific aspects as hydrologic and water quality modeling and how river withdrawals will affect wetlands, biogeochemical processes, plankton, benthos, the littoral zone, fish, and wetlands wildlife in the basin. For two and a half years, the WSTB Committee has followed the activities of eight District workgroups as they modeled the relevant river basins, determined the criteria to evaluate the environmental impacts of water withdrawals, evaluated the extent of those impacts, and coordinated with other ongoing projects. The first report of the Committee reviewed the Phase 1 hydrologic and environmental assessment tools and relevant data, and made recommendations regarding proposed work for the second phase of the WSIS. The Committee's second report focused on how the District was responding to the recommendations in its first report. The third Committee report primarily evaluated the hydrologic and hydrodynamic work being performed by the District. Review of the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study, the fourth and final product of the Committee focuses on the ecological impact analyses conducted by the environmental workgroups, presents final thoughts about the hydrologic and hydrodynamic studies, and provides some overall perspectives on the WSIS.
Since the 1950s,the International Joint Commission (IJC) of Canada and the United States has issued water regulation and management plans for Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. Changes in recreational, environmental, navigational and other uses of the water system have prompted the IJC to consider replacing the current water regulation plan in operation for more than 40 years. IJC's goals for a replacement plan include sound scientific foundations, public participation, transparency in plan development and evaluation, and inclusion of environmental considerations. To help develop and select the new plan, the IJC supported a 5-year, $20 million Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study (LOSLR Study). The LOSLR Study uses models to compile and integrate data gathered from a series of commissioned studies of wetlands, species at risk, recreational boating, fisheries, coastal erosion and flooding, commercial navigation, hydropower, industrial, municipal and domestic water intakes, public information and education, and hydrologic modeling. This report reviews a portion of the study that focused on wetlands and species at risk and three of the models that were used. The report finds that the overall breadth of the LOSLR study is impressive, and commends the scale and inclusiveness of the studies and models. In terms of informing decision making, however, the reviewed studies and models show deficiencies when evaluated against ten evaluation criteria, including treatment of uncertainty, quality control/quality assurance, thorough documentation, and empirical foundations. Among the report's recommendations is a need for more thorough documentation of study methods and findings, stronger and more consistent quality control, and more attention to how uncertainty should be addressed to better inform decision making. This NRC study was conducted in collaboration with the Royal Society of Canada.
The St. Johns River is the longest river in Florida, containing extensive freshwater wetlands, numerous large lakes, a wide estuarine channel, and a correspondingly diverse array of native flora and fauna. Water resource management in the river's watershed is the responsibility of the St. Johns River Water Management District (the District). The District must provide water for the region's 4.4 million residents as well as numerous industrial and agricultural users, all while protecting natural systems within the river basin. With population growth in the watershed expected to surpass 7.2 million in 2030, the District, through its water resources planning process, has begun to identify alternative sources of water beyond its traditional groundwater sources, including the potential withdrawal of 262 million gallons per day from the St. Johns River. To more comprehensively evaluate the environmental impacts of withdrawing this water from the river, the District embarked on a two-year Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS), and requested the involvement of the National Research Council. The present volume reviews the Phase I work of the WSIS and provides recommendations for improving Phase II.
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