In 2001, the U.S. Global Change Research Program produced the report A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle. This report was designed to represent a research strategy and scientific plan for investigating the global water cycle, and its interactions with climate and for developing an enhanced understanding of the fundamental processes that govern the availability and biogeochemistry of water resources. The USGCRP managers are currently considering how to move forward with implementation of this ambitious, broad, and potentially very fruitful plan on an interagency basis, and it requested that the National Research Council (NRC) advise them in this regard. This report, Review of USGCRP Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle, provides comments on the water cycle science plan as related to its recommended scientific initiatives and goals, and it provides comments on the usefulness of the water cycle science plan to the USGCRP agencies in developing a coordinated global water cycle implementation plan.
In 2001, the U.S. Global Change Research Program produced the report A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle. This report was designed to represent a research strategy and scientific plan for investigating the global water cycle, and its interactions with climate and for developing an enhanced understanding of the fundamental processes that govern the availability and biogeochemistry of water resources. The USGCRP managers are currently considering how to move forward with implementation of this ambitious, broad, and potentially very fruitful plan on an interagency basis, and it requested that the National Research Council (NRC) advise them in this regard. This report, Review of USGCRP Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle, provides comments on the water cycle science plan as related to its recommended scientific initiatives and goals, and it provides comments on the usefulness of the water cycle science plan to the USGCRP agencies in developing a coordinated global water cycle implementation plan.
Water managers rely on predicting changes in the hydrologic cycle on seasonal-to-interannual time frames to prepare for water resource needs. Seasonal to interannual predictability of the hydrologic cycle is related to local and remote influences involving land processes and ocean processes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Although advances in understanding land-surface processes show promise in improving climate prediction, incorporating this information into water management decision processes remains a challenge since current models provide only limited information for predictions on seasonal and longer time scales. To address these needs, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) was established in 2001 to improve how changes in water resources are predicted on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales for the continental United States. The GAPP program has developed a science and implementation plan to guide its science activities, which describes strategies for improving prediction and decision support in the hydrologic sciences. This report by the National Research Council provides a review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan, outlining suggestions to strengthen the plan and the GAPP program overall.
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) coordinates the efforts of 13 federal agencies to understand why climate is changing, to improve predictions about how it will change in the future, and to use that information to assess impacts on human systems and ecosystems and to better support decision making. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program is the first review of the CCSP's progress since the program was established in 2002. It lays out a method for evaluating the CCSP, and uses that method to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the entire program and to identify areas where progress has not met expectations. The committee found that the program has made good progress in documenting and understanding temperature trends and related environmental changes on a global scale, as well as in understanding the influence of human activities on these observed changes. The ability to predict future climate changes also has improved, but efforts to understand the impacts of such changes on society and analyze mitigation and adaptation strategies are still relatively immature. The program also has not met expectations in supporting decision making, studying regional impacts, and communicating with a wider group of stakeholders.
Ocean research offers countless benefits, from improving fisheries management to discovering new drugs to enabling early detection of tsunamis and hurricanes. At the request of the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (JSOST), the National Research Council convened a committee to review the draft and final versions of the Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy described in Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States: Research Priorities for the Next Decade, which represents the first coordinated national ocean research planning effort involving all federal agencies that support ocean science. The plan presents an ambitious vision for ocean research that will be of great benefit to the ocean sciences community and the nation. This book contains both sets of findings (i.e., the committee's review of the JSOST's draft plan [A Review of the Draft Ocean Research Priorities Plan: Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States] and the review of the final plan). This book recommends that JSOST employ a variety of outreach mechanisms to continue to engage nonfederal partners in ocean research planning efforts, such as establishing external committees to provide scientific and technical advice and to review progress on implementation of the research plan.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is an interagency program, established by the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990, mandated by Congress to "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change". Since the USGCRP began, scientific understanding of global change has increased and the information needs of the nation have changed dramatically. A better understanding of what is changing and why can help decision makers in the public and private sectors cope with ongoing change. Accomplishments of the U.S. Global Change Research Program highlights the growth of global change science in the quarter century that the USGCRP has been in existence, and documents some of its contributions to that growth through its primary functions of interagency planning and coordination, and of synthesis of research and practice to inform decision making.
Water is essential to life for humans and their food crops, and for ecosystems. Effective water management requires tracking the inflow, outflow, quantity and quality of ground-water and surface water, much like balancing a bank account. Currently, networks of ground-based instruments measure these in individual locations, while airborne and satellite sensors measure them over larger areas. Recent technological innovations offer unprecedented possibilities to integrate space, air, and land observations to advance water science and guide management decisions. This book concludes that in order to realize the potential of integrated data, agencies, universities, and the private sector must work together to develop new kinds of sensors, test them in field studies, and help users to apply this information to real problems.
The 2001 National Research Council (NRC) report Basic Research Opportunities in Earth Science (BROES) described how basic research in the Earth sciences serves five national imperatives: (1) discovery, use, and conservation of natural resources; (2) characterization and mitigation of natural hazards; (3) geotechnical support of commercial and infrastructure development; (4) stewardship of the environment; and (5) terrestrial surveillance for global security and national defense. This perspective is even more pressing today, and will persist into the future, with ever-growing emphasis. Today's world-with headlines dominated by issues involving fossil fuel and water resources, earthquake and tsunami disasters claiming hundreds of thousands of lives and causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damages, profound environmental changes associated with the evolving climate system, and nuclear weapons proliferation and testing-has many urgent societal issues that need to be informed by sound understanding of the Earth sciences. A national strategy to sustain basic research and training of expertise across the full spectrum of the Earth sciences is motivated by these national imperatives. New Research Opportunities in the Earth Sciences identifies new and emerging research opportunities in the Earth sciences over the next decade, including surface and deep Earth processes and interdisciplinary research with fields such as ocean and atmospheric sciences, biology, engineering, computer science, and social and behavioral sciences. The report also identifies key instrumentation and facilities needed to support these new and emerging research opportunities. The report describes opportunities for increased cooperation in these new and emerging areas between EAR and other government agency programs, industry, and international programs, and suggests new ways that EAR can help train the next generation of Earth scientists, support young investigators, and increase the participation of underrepresented groups in the field.
Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems facing the world today. Policy decisions are already being made to limit or adapt to climate change and its impacts, but there is a need for greater integration between science and decision making. This book proposes six priorities for restructuring the United States' climate change research program to develop a more robust knowledge base and support informed responses: Reorganize the Program Around Integrated Scientific-Societal Issues Establish a U.S. Climate Observing System Support a New Generation of Coupled Earth System Models Strengthen Research on Adaptation, Mitigation, and Vulnerability Initiate a National Assessment of the Risks and Costs of Climate Change Impacts and Options to Respond Coordinate Federal Efforts to Provide Climate Information, Tools, and Forecasts Routinely to Decision Makers
The tension between wildlife protection under the Endangered Species Act and water management in the Platte River Basin has existed for more than 25 years. The Platte River provides important habitat for migratory and breeding birds, including three endangered or threatened species: the whooping crane, the northern Great Plains population of the piping plover, and the interior least tern. The leading factors attributed to the decline of the cranes are historical overhunting and widespread habitat destruction and, for the plovers and terns, human interference during nesting and the loss of riverine nesting sites in open sandy areas that have been replaced with woodlands, sand and gravel mines, housing, and roadways. Extensive damming has disrupted passage of the endangered pallid sturgeon and resulted in less suitable habitat conditions such as cooler stream flows, less turbid waters, and inconsistent flow regimes. Commercial harvesting, now illegal, also contributed to the decline of the sturgeon. Endangered and Threatened Species of the Platte River addresses the habitat requirements for these federally protected species. The book further examines the scientific aspects of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's instream-flow recommendations and habitat suitability guidelines and assesses the science concerning the connections among the physical systems of the river as they relate to species' habitats.
Estimates of groundwater recharge and discharge rates are needed at many different scales for many different purposes. These include such tasks as evaluating landslide risks, managing groundwater resources, locating nuclear waste repositories, and estimating global budgets of water and greenhouse gasses. Groundwater Fluxes Across Interfaces focuses on scientific challenges in (1) the spatial and temporal variability of recharge and discharge, (2) how information at one scale can be used at another, and (3) the effects of groundwater on climate and vice versa.
The report reviews a draft strategic plan from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, a program formed in 2002 to coordinate and direct U.S. efforts in climate change and global change research. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program incorporates the decade-old Global Change Research Program and adds a new component -the Climate Change Research Initiative-whose primary goal is to "measurably improve the integration of scientific knowledge, including measures of uncertainty, into effective decision support systems and resources.
Floods are by far the most devastating of all weather-related hazards in the United States. The National Weather Service (NWS) is charged by Congress to provide river and flood forecasts and warnings to the public to protect life and property and to promote the nation's economic and environmental well-being (such as through support for water resources management). As part of a modernization of its technologies and organizational structure, the NWS is undertaking a thorough updating of its hydrologic products and services and the activities that produce them. The National Weather Service Modernization Committee of the National Research Council undertook a comprehensive assessment of the NWS' plans and progress for the modernization of hydrologic and hydrometeorological operations and services. The committee's conclusions and recommendations and their related analysis and rationale are presented in this report.
The U.S. government supports a large, diverse suite of activities that can be broadly characterized as "global change research." Such research offers a wide array of benefits to the nation, in terms of protecting public health and safety, enhancing economic strength and competitiveness, and protecting the natural systems upon which life depends. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which coordinates the efforts of numerous agencies and departments across the federal government, was officially established in 1990 through the U.S. Global Change Research Act (GCRA). In the subsequent years, the scope, structure, and priorities of the Program have evolved, (for example, it was referred to as the Climate Change Science Program [CCSP] for the years 2002-2008), but throughout, the Program has played an important role in shaping and coordinating our nation's global change research enterprise. This research enterprise, in turn, has played a crucial role in advancing understanding of our changing global environment and the countless ways in which human society affects and is affected by such changes. In mid-2011, a new NRC Committee to Advise the USGCRP was formed and charged to provide a centralized source of ongoing whole-program advice to the USGCRP. The first major task of this committee was to provide a review of the USGCRP draft Strategic Plan 2012-2021 (referred to herein as "the Plan"), which was made available for public comment on September 30, 2011. A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Strategic Plan addresses an array of suggestions for improving the Plan, ranging from relatively small edits to large questions about the Program's scope, goals, and capacity to meet those goals. The draft Plan proposes a significant broadening of the Program's scope from the form it took as the CCSP. Outlined in this report, issues of key importance are the need to identify initial steps the Program will take to actually achieve the proposed broadening of its scope, to develop critical science capacity that is now lacking, and to link the production of knowledge to its use; and the need to establish an overall governance structure that will allow the Program to move in the planned new directions.
The Klamath River basin, which spans parts of southern Oregon and northern California, has been the focus of a prominent conflict over competing uses for water. Management actions to protect threatened and endangered fish species in the basin have left less water available for irrigation in dry years and heightened tensions among farmers and other stakeholders including commercial fishermen, Native Americans, conservationists, hunters, anglers, and hydropower producers. This National Research Council book assesses two recent studies that evaluate various aspects of flows in the Klamath basin: (1) the Instream Flow Phase II study (IFS), conducted by Utah State University, and (2) the Natural Flow of the Upper Klamath Basin study (NFS), conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). The book concludes that both studies offer important new information but do not provide enough information for detailed management of flows in the Klamath River, and it offers many suggestions for improving the studies. The report recommends that a comprehensive analysis of the many individual studies of the Klamath river basin be conducted so that a big picture perspective of the entire basin and research and management needs can emerge.
The Update to the Strategic Plan (USP) is a supplement to the Ten-Year Strategic Plan of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) completed in 2012. The Strategic Plan sets out a research program guiding thirteen federal agencies in accord with the Global Change Research Act of 1990. This report reviews whether USGCRP's efforts to achieve its goals and objectives, as documented in the USP, are adequate and responsive to the Nation's needs, whether the priorities for continued or increased emphasis are appropriate, and if the written document communicates effectively, all within a context of the history and trajectory of the Program.
Global change assessments inform decision makers about the scientific underpinnings of a range of environmental issues, such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and loss of biodiversity. Dozens of assessments have been conducted to date by various U.S. and international groups, many of them influencing public policies, technology development, and research directions. This report analyzes strengths and weaknesses of eight past assessments to inform future efforts. Common elements of effective assessments include strong leadership, extensive engagement with interested and affected parties, a transparent science-policy interface, and well defined communication strategies. The report identifies 11 essential elements of effective assessments and recommends that future assessments include decision support tools that make use of information at the regional and local level where decisions are made.
The purpose of this letter report is to state the findings and recommendations of the Climate Research Committee's (CRC) brief review of the U.S. contributions to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The primary objectives of the review were to: (1) assess the coordination (national-international and project-to-project) of the U.S. scientific contributions to the WCRP; (2) identify potential science gaps and/or redundancies in the U.S. contributions to the WCRP, and; (3) identify existing or emerging issues and needs that might require more in-depth attention. Due to the limited time available for this review, the CRC focused on the first of these objectives.
NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD) ties together diverse researchers, sponsors, and resources to develop the science community's understanding of the universe. Within scientific organizations like NASA, it is important to establish clear strategies and goals to guide research and foster new discoveries across varying missions. SMD created a draft for their 2019 Science Plan, and a review of this draft is necessary to ensure that the plan establishes clear, attainable, relevant, and ambitious goals. Review of the Draft 2019 Science Mission Directorate Science Plan provides comments on and recommendations for SMD's draft. Comments in this report focus on the level of ambition of the specified strategies in light of current and emerging opportunities to advance Earth and space science over the next 5 years, the ability of SMD to meet the science objectives in the most recent decadal surveys through implementation of specified strategies, additional strategies for SMD's considerations, and the general readability and clarity of the draft. Recommendations in this report identify important improvements for the 2019 Science Plan.
Rivers provide about 60 percent of the nation's drinking water and irrigation water and 10 percent of the nation's electric power needs. The multiple and sometimes incompatible services demanded of rivers often lead to policy and management conflicts that require the integration of science-based information. This report advises the U.S. Geological Survey on how it can best address river science challenges by effectively using its resources and coordinating its activities with other agencies. The report identifies the highest priority river science issues for the USGS, including environmental flows and river restoration, sediment transport and geomorphology, and groundwater surface-water interactions. It also recommends two cross-cutting science activities including surveying and mapping the nation's river systems according to key physical and landscape features, and expanding work on predictive models, especially those that simulate interactions between physical-biological processes. The report identifies key variables to be monitored and data-managed. It proposes enhancements in streamflow, biological, and sediment monitoring; these include establishing multidisciplinary, integrated reach-scale monitoring sites and developing a comprehensive national sediment monitoring program. Finally, it encourages the USGS to be at the forefront of new technology application, including airborne lidar and embedded, networked, wireless sensors.
To better understand our climate system, it is important that we have climate data records (CDRs)-time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change-that possess the accuracy, longevity, and stability to facilitate credible climate monitoring. In 2004, the National Research Council (NRC) published Climate Data Records from Environmental Satellites to provide the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with initial guidelines on how to develop and implement an effective CDR program. NOAA used this book to draft a plan for a new Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) program, and then asked NRC to review it. The new program will be responsible for processing, archiving, and distributing observations from satellite and supporting ground-based platforms for monitoring, diagnosing, understanding, predicting, modeling, and assessing climate variation and change. The NRC review outlines several ways in which to improve NOAA's draft plan, most importantly by clarifying advisory mechanisms, providing more detail about how NOAA will coordinate with important partners in generating CDRs, articulating how the program will prioritize its activities, and developing ways to realistically project future costs. However, the draft plan is sound overall and NOAA should immediately begin implementing the SDS program while revising the plan as recommended in the book.
An increase in global access to goods and knowledge is transforming world-class science and technology (S&T) by bringing it within the capability of an unprecedented number of global parties who must compete for resources, markets, and talent. In particular, globalization has facilitated the success of formal S&T plans in many developing countries, where traditional limitations can now be overcome through the accumulation and global trade of a wide variety of goods, skills, and knowledge. As a result, centers for technological research and development (R&D) are now globally dispersed, setting the stage for greater uncertainty in the political, economic, and security arenas. These changes will have a potentially enormous impact for the U.S. national security policy, which for the past half century was premised on U.S. economic and technological dominance. As the U.S. monopoly on talent and innovation wanes, arms export regulations and restrictions on visas for foreign S&T workers are becoming less useful as security strategies. The acute level of S&T competition among leading countries in the world today suggests that countries that fail to exploit new technologies or that lose the capability for proprietary use of their own new technologies will find their existing industries uncompetitive or obsolete. The increased access to information has transformed the 1950s' paradigm of "control and isolation" of information for innovation control into the current one of "engagement and partnerships" between innovators for innovation creation. Current and future strategies for S&T development need to be considered in light of these new realities. This book analyzes the S&T strategies of Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Singapore (JBRICS), six countries that have either undergone or are undergoing remarkable growth in their S&T capabilities for the purpose of identifying unique national features and how they are utilized in the evolving global S&T environment.
The radio frequency spectrum is a limited resource with ever increasing demand from an expansive range of applicationsâ€"all the way from commercial, such as mobile phones, to scientific, such as hurricane monitoring from space. Since radio waves do not stop at national borders, international regulation is necessary to ensure effective use of the radio spectrum for all parties. Every 2 to 5 years, the International Telecommunication Union convenes a World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) to review and revise the international radio regulations. This report provides guidance to U.S. spectrum managers and policymakers as they prepare for the WRC in 2019. While the resulting document is targeted primarily at U.S. agencies dealing with radio spectrum issues, other Administrations and foreign scientific users may find its recommendations useful in their own WRC planning.
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