Committee on Mathematical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification's Books

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on Mathematical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

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Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.

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144

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309256348

ISBN 13

9780309256346

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

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Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

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144

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309256348

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9780309256346

The Mathematical Sciences in 2025

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on the Mathematical Sciences in 2025

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The Mathematical Sciences in 2025

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on the Mathematical Sciences in 2025

The mathematical sciences are part of nearly all aspects of everyday life-the discipline has underpinned such beneficial modern capabilities as Internet search, medical imaging, computer animation, numerical weather predictions, and all types of digital communications. The Mathematical Sciences in 2025 examines the current state of the mathematical sciences and explores the changes needed for the discipline to be in a strong position and able to maximize its contribution to the nation in 2025. It finds the vitality of the discipline excellent and that it contributes in expanding ways to most areas of science and engineering, as well as to the nation as a whole, and recommends that training for future generations of mathematical scientists should be re-assessed in light of the increasingly cross-disciplinary nature of the mathematical sciences. In addition, because of the valuable interplay between ideas and people from all parts of the mathematical sciences, the report emphasizes that universities and the government need to continue to invest in the full spectrum of the mathematical sciences in order for the whole enterprise to continue to flourish long-term.

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223

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309284570

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9780309284578

From Maps to Models

Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Mapping Science Committee,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Models of the World for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

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From Maps to Models

Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities

The United States faces numerous, varied, and evolving threats to national security, including terrorism, scarcity and disruption of food and water supplies, extreme weather events, and regional conflicts around the world. Effectively managing these threats requires intelligence that not only assesses what is happening now, but that also anticipates potential future threats. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is responsible for providing geospatial intelligence on other countriesâ€"assessing where exactly something is, what it is, and why it is importantâ€"in support of national security, disaster response, and humanitarian assistance. NGA's approach today relies heavily on imagery analysis and mapping, which provide an assessment of current and past conditions. However, augmenting that approach with a strong modeling capability would enable NGA to also anticipate and explore future outcomes. A model is a simplified representation of a real-world system that is used to extract explainable insights about the system, predict future outcomes, or explore what might happen under plausible what-if scenarios. Such models use data and/or theory to specify inputs (e.g., initial conditions, boundary conditions, and model parameters) to produce an output. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities describes the types of models and analytical methods used to understand real-world systems, discusses what would be required to make these models and methods useful for geospatial intelligence, and identifies supporting research and development for NGA. This report provides examples of models that have been used to help answer the sorts of questions NGA might ask, describes how to go about a model-based investigation, and discusses models and methods that are relevant to NGA's mission.

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135

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309449944

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9780309449946

Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space

A Value Framework

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on a Framework for Analyzing the Needs for Continuity of NASA-Sustained Remote Sensing Observations of the Earth from Space

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Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space

A Value Framework

NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) conducts a wide range of satellite and suborbital missions to observe Earth's land surface and interior, biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and oceans as part of a program to improve understanding of Earth as an integrated system. Earth observations provide the foundation for critical scientific advances and environmental data products derived from these observations are used in resource management and for an extraordinary range of societal applications including weather forecasts, climate projections, sea level change, water management, disease early warning, agricultural production, and the response to natural disasters. As the complexity of societal infrastructure and its vulnerability to environmental disruption increases, the demands for deeper scientific insights and more actionable information continue to rise. To serve these demands, NASA's ESD is challenged with optimizing the partitioning of its finite resources among measurements intended for exploring new science frontiers, carefully characterizing long-term changes in the Earth system, and supporting ongoing societal applications. This challenge is most acute in the decisions the Division makes between supporting measurement continuity of data streams that are critical components of Earth science research programs and the development of new measurement capabilities. This report seeks to establish a more quantitative understanding of the need for measurement continuity and the consequences of measurement gaps. Continuity of NASA's Earth's Observations presents a framework to assist NASA's ESD in their determinations of when a measurement or dataset should be collected for durations longer than the typical lifetimes of single satellite missions.

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176

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309377463

ISBN 13

9780309377461

Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation

By: Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on the Assessment of Agent-Based Models to Inform Tobacco Product Regulation

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Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation

By: Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on the Assessment of Agent-Based Models to Inform Tobacco Product Regulation

Tobacco consumption continues to be the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of tobacco products - specifically cigarettes, cigarette tobacco, roll-your-own tobacco, and smokeless tobacco - to protect public health and reduce tobacco use in the United States. Given the strong social component inherent to tobacco use onset, cessation, and relapse, and given the heterogeneity of those social interactions, agent-based models have the potential to be an essential tool in assessing the effects of policies to control tobacco. Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation describes the complex tobacco environment; discusses the usefulness of agent-based models to inform tobacco policy and regulation; presents an evaluation framework for policy-relevant agent-based models; examines the role and type of data needed to develop agent-based models for tobacco regulation; provides an assessment of the agent-based model developed for FDA; and offers strategies for using agent-based models to inform decision making in the future.

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269

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309317258

ISBN 13

9780309317252

A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Life Sciences,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Interventions to Increase the Resilience of Coral Reefs

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A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs

Coral reefs are critical to ocean and human life because they provide food, living area, storm protection, tourism income, and more. However, human-induced stressors, such as overfishing, sediment, pollution, and habitat destruction have threatened ocean ecosystems globally for decades. In the face of climate change, these ecosystems now face an array of unfamiliar challenges due to destructive rises in ocean temperature, acidity and sea level. These factors lead to an increased frequency of bleaching events, hindered growth, and a decreasing rate of calcification. Research on interventions to combat these relatively new stressors and a reevaluation of longstanding interventions is necessary to understand and protect coral reefs in this changing climate. Previous research on these methods prompts further questions regarding the decision making process for site-specific interventions. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs builds upon a previous report that reviews the state of research on methods that have been used, tested, or proposed to increase the resilience of coral reefs. This new report aims to help coral managers evaluate the specific needs of their site and navigate the 23 different interventions described in the previous report. A case study of the Caribbean, a region with low coral population plagued by disease, serves as an example for coral intervention decision making. This report provides complex coral management decision making tools, identifies gaps in coral biology and conservation research, and provides examples to help individuals and communities tailor a decision strategy to a local area.

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213

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309491878

ISBN 13

9780309491877

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

By: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies

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A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

By: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies

As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.

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252

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309259789

ISBN 13

9780309259781

Opportunities in Protection Materials Science and Technology for Future Army Applications

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Army Science and Technology,National Materials Advisory Board,Committee on Opportunities in Protection Materials Science and Technology for Future Army Applications

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Opportunities in Protection Materials Science and Technology for Future Army Applications

Armor plays a significant role in the protection of warriors. During the course of history, the introduction of new materials and improvements in the materials already used to construct armor has led to better protection and a reduction in the weight of the armor. But even with such advances in materials, the weight of the armor required to manage threats of ever-increasing destructive capability presents a huge challenge. Opportunities in Protection Materials Science and Technology for Future Army Applications explores the current theoretical and experimental understanding of the key issues surrounding protection materials, identifies the major challenges and technical gaps for developing the future generation of lightweight protection materials, and recommends a path forward for their development. It examines multiscale shockwave energy transfer mechanisms and experimental approaches for their characterization over short timescales, as well as multiscale modeling techniques to predict mechanisms for dissipating energy. The report also considers exemplary threats and design philosophy for the three key applications of armor systems: (1) personnel protection, including body armor and helmets, (2) vehicle armor, and (3) transparent armor. Opportunities in Protection Materials Science and Technology for Future Army Applications recommends that the Department of Defense (DoD) establish a defense initiative for protection materials by design (PMD), with associated funding lines for basic and applied research. The PMD initiative should include a combination of computational, experimental, and materials testing, characterization, and processing research conducted by government, industry, and academia.

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176

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

030921288X

ISBN 13

9780309212885

Mathematical Sciences Research Challenges for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

Summary of a Workshop

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on Analytical Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

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Mathematical Sciences Research Challenges for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

Summary of a Workshop

If the United States is to sustain its economic prosperity, quality of life, and global competitiveness, it must continue to have an abundance of secure, reliable, and affordable energy resources. There have been many improvements in the technology and capability of the electric grid over the past several decades. Many of these advances to the grid depend on complex mathematical algorithms and techniques, and as the complexity of the grid has increased, the analytical demands have also increased. The workshop summarized in this report was developed as part of an ongoing study of the Committee on Analytical Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Mathematical Sciences Research Challenges for the Next-Generation Electric Grid summarizes the presentations and discussions from this workshop. This report identifies critical areas of mathematical and computational research that must be addressed for the next-generation electric transmission and distribution system and to identify future needs and ways that current research efforts in these areas could be adjusted or augmented.

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102

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309378591

ISBN 13

9780309378598

Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

Summary of a Workshop

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Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

Summary of a Workshop

Questions about the reproducibility of scientific research have been raised in numerous settings and have gained visibility through several high-profile journal and popular press articles. Quantitative issues contributing to reproducibility challenges have been considered (including improper data measurement and analysis, inadequate statistical expertise, and incomplete data, among others), but there is no clear consensus on how best to approach or to minimize these problems. A lack of reproducibility of scientific results has created some distrust in scientific findings among the general public, scientists, funding agencies, and industries. While studies fail for a variety of reasons, many factors contribute to the lack of perfect reproducibility, including insufficient training in experimental design, misaligned incentives for publication and the implications for university tenure, intentional manipulation, poor data management and analysis, and inadequate instances of statistical inference. The workshop summarized in this report was designed not to address the social and experimental challenges but instead to focus on the latter issues of improper data management and analysis, inadequate statistical expertise, incomplete data, and difficulties applying sound statistic inference to the available data. Many efforts have emerged over recent years to draw attention to and improve reproducibility of scientific work. This report uniquely focuses on the statistical perspective of three issues: the extent of reproducibility, the causes of reproducibility failures, and the potential remedies for these failures.

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133

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309392055

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9780309392051

Book's by Committee on Mathematical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

The Mathematical Sciences in 2025

The Mathematical Sciences in 2025

From Maps to Models

From Maps to Models

Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space

Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space

Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation

Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation

A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs

A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

Opportunities in Protection Materials Science and Technology for Future Army Applications

Opportunities in Protection Materials Science and Technology for Future Army Applications

Mathematical Sciences Research Challenges for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

Mathematical Sciences Research Challenges for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

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