Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews's Books

Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews

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Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews

The global spread of science and technology expertise and the growing commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military application are creating potentially serious threats to the technological superiority underpinning U.S. military strength. Key to dealing with this situation is the ability of the U.S. intelligence community to be able to provide adequate and effective warning of evolving, critical technologies. To assist in performing this task, the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study examining technology warning issues. This report provides the first part of that study. It presents an assessment of critical, evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt these technologies; and provides indicators for the intelligence community to determine if such methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship with the technology warning community to support the examination of technology warning issues.

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138

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309096057

ISBN 13

9780309096058

Review of the National Defense Intelligence College's Master's Degree in Science and Technology Intelligence

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee for the Review of the Master's Degree Program for Science and Technology Intelligence Professionals

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Review of the National Defense Intelligence College's Master's Degree in Science and Technology Intelligence

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee for the Review of the Master's Degree Program for Science and Technology Intelligence Professionals

The National Research Council (NRC) was asked by the National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) to convene a committee to review the curriculum and syllabi for their proposed master of science degree in science and technology intelligence. The NRC was asked to review the material provided by the NDIC and offer advice and recommendations regarding the program's structure and goals of the Master of Science and Technology Intelligence (MS&TI) program. The Committee for the Review of the Master's Degree Program for Science and Technology Professionals convened in May 2011, received extensive briefings and material from the NDIC faculty and administrators, and commenced a detailed review of the material. This letter report contains the findings and recommendations of the committee. Review of the National Defense Intelligence College's Master's Degree in Science and Technology Intelligence centers on two general areas. First, the committee found that the biological sciences and systems engineering were underrepresented in the existing program structure. Secondly, the committee recommends that the NDIC faculty restructure the program and course learning objectives to focus more specifically on science and technology, with particular emphasis on the empirical measurement of student achievement. Given the dynamic and ever-changing nature of science and technology, the syllabi should continue to evolve as change occurs.

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309220548

ISBN 13

9780309220545

Overcoming Challenges to Develop Countermeasures Against Aerosolized Bioterrorism Agents

Appropriate Use of Animal Models

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Institute for Laboratory Animal Research,Board on Life Sciences,Committee on Animal Models for Testing Interventions Against Aerosolized Bioterrorism Agents

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Overcoming Challenges to Develop Countermeasures Against Aerosolized Bioterrorism Agents

Appropriate Use of Animal Models

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) gives the highest priority to developing countermeasures against bioterrorism agents that are highly infective when dispersed in aerosol form. Developing drugs to prevent or treat illnesses caused by bioterrorism agents requires testing their effectiveness in animals since human clinical trials would be unethical. At the request of NIAID, the National Academies conducted a study to examine how such testing could be improved. Overcoming Challenges to Develop Countermeasures Against Aerosolized Bioterrorism Agents provides recommendations to researchers on selecting the kinds of animal models, aerosol generators, and bioterrorism agent doses that would produce conditions that most closely mimic the disease process in humans. It also urges researchers to fully document experimental parameters in the literature so that studies can be reproduced and compared. The book recommends that all unclassified data on bioterrorism agent studies-including unclassified, unpublished data from U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID)-be published in the open literature. The book also calls on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to improve the process by which bioterrorism countermeasures are approved based on the results of animal studies.

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309180902

ISBN 13

9780309180900

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies

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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies

Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.

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137

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309150337

ISBN 13

9780309150330

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies

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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies

The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

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341

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309157455

ISBN 13

9780309157452

Critical Technology Accessibility

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Critical Technology Accessibility

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Critical Technology Accessibility

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee on Critical Technology Accessibility

In 2003, the Defense Intelligence Agency asked the NRC to form a standing committee to help develop study topics about technology warning. One issue that was identified was the growing dependence on foreign suppliers of critical technology as a result of the increase in globalization of economic activity. Two important questions emerged for study: what is the risk of denial of critical products from foreign sources and what must the United States do to assure access to future critical products and technologies? This report presents an assessment addressing those two questions. It also provides an analysis of a strategic approach to manage the consequences of this trend towards increased globalization. Finally, the report offers a set of recommendations to implement this strategy and to increase assurance of access to critical technologies.

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309101468

ISBN 13

9780309101462

Big Data

A Workshop Report

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee for Science and Technology Challenges to U.S. National Security Interests

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Big Data

A Workshop Report

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Committee for Science and Technology Challenges to U.S. National Security Interests

In 2012, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) approached the National Research Council's TIGER standing committee and asked it to develop a list of workshop topics to explore the impact of emerging science and technology. From the list of topics given to DIA, three were chosen to be developed by the Committee for Science and Technology Challenges to U.S. National Security Interests. The first in a series of three workshops was held on April 23-24, 2012. This report summarizes that first workshop which explored the phenomenon known as big data. The objective for the first workshop is given in the statement of task, which explains that that workshop will review emerging capabilities in large computational data to include speed, data fusion, use, and commodification of data used in decision making. The workshop will also review the subsequent increase in vulnerabilities over the capabilities gained and the significance to national security. The committee devised an agenda that helped the committee, sponsors, and workshop attendees probe issues of national security related to so-called big data, as well as gain understanding of potential related vulnerabilities. The workshop was used to gather data that is described in this report, which presents views expressed by individual workshop participants. Big Data: A Workshop Report is the first in a series of three workshops, held in early 2012 to further the ongoing engagement among the National Research Council's (NRC's) Technology Insight-Gauge, Evaluate, and Review (TIGER) Standing Committee, the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community, and the consumers of S&TI products.

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309266882

ISBN 13

9780309266888

Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter

A Symposium Report

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Standing Committee on Technology Insight-Gauge, Evaluate & Review,Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter

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Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter

A Symposium Report

On April 29, 2009 the National Research Council held a 1-day symposium titled, 'Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter.' This volume, a report of the symposium, highlights key challenges confronting the scientific and technical intelligence (S & TI) community and explores potential solutions that might enable the S & TI community to overcome those challenges. The symposium captured comments and observations from representatives from combatant commands and supporting governmental organizations, together with those of symposium participants, in order to elucidate concepts and trends, knowledge of which could be used to improve the Department of Defense's technology warning capability. Topics addressed included issues stemming from globalization of science and technology, challenges to U.S. warfighters that could result from technology surprise, examples of past technological surprise, and the strengths and weaknesses of current S & TI analysis.

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ISBN 10

0309142288

ISBN 13

9780309142281

Emerging Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies

By: National Research Council,Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Standing Committee for Technology Insight--Gauge, Evaluate, and Review,Committee on Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades

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Emerging Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies

Emerging Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies, from the National Research Council, identifies and explores several specific research areas that have implications for U.S. national security, and should therefore be monitored consistently by the intelligence community. These areas include: neurophysiological advances in detecting and measuring indicators of psychological states and intentions of individuals the development of drugs or technologies that can alter human physical or cognitive abilities advances in real-time brain imaging breakthroughs in high-performance computing and neuronal modeling that could allow researchers to develop systems which mimic functions of the human brain, particularly the ability to organize disparate forms of data. As these fields continue to grow, it will be imperative that the intelligence community be able to identify scientific advances relevant to national security when they occur. To do so will require adequate funding, intelligence analysts with advanced training in science and technology, and increased collaboration with the scientific community, particularly academia. A key tool for the intelligence community, this book will also be a useful resource for the health industry, the military, and others with a vested interest in technologies such as brain imaging and cognitive or physical enhancers.

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