The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty affect water resources planning and management in the American West. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty examines the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change.
Aldo Leopold, father of the "land ethic," once said, "The time has come for science to busy itself with the earth itself. The first step is to reconstruct a sample of what we had to begin with." The concept he expressedâ€"restorationâ€"is defined in this comprehensive new volume that examines the prospects for repairing the damage society has done to the nation's aquatic resources: lakes, rivers and streams, and wetlands. Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems outlines a national strategy for aquatic restoration, with practical recommendations, and features case studies of aquatic restoration activities around the country. The committee examines: Key concepts and techniques used in restoration. Common factors in successful restoration efforts. Threats to the health of the nation's aquatic ecosystems. Approaches to evaluation before, during, and after a restoration project. The emerging specialties of restoration and landscape ecology.
The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty affect water resources planning and management in the American West. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty examines the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change.
Recent studies of past climate and streamflow conditions have broadened understanding of long-term water availability in the Colorado River, revealing many periods when streamflow was lower than at any time in the past 100 years of recorded flows. That information, along with two important trends-a rapid increase in urban populations in the West and significant climate warming in the region-will require that water managers prepare for possible reductions in water supplies that cannot be fully averted through traditional means. Colorado River Basin Water Management assesses existing scientific information, including temperature and streamflow records, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model projections, and how it relates to Colorado River water supplies and demands, water management, and drought preparedness. The book concludes that successful adjustments to new conditions will entail strong and sustained cooperation among the seven Colorado River basin states and recommends conducting a comprehensive basinwide study of urban water practices that can be used to help improve planning for future droughts and water shortages.
Scientific evidence shows that most glaciers in South Asia's Hindu Kush Himalayan region are retreating, but the consequences for the region's water supply are unclear, this report finds. The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is the location of several of Asia's great river systems, which provide water for drinking, irrigation, and other uses for about 1.5 billion people. Recent studies show that at lower elevations, glacial retreat is unlikely to cause significant changes in water availability over the next several decades, but other factors, including groundwater depletion and increasing human water use, could have a greater impact. Higher elevation areas could experience altered water flow in some river basins if current rates of glacial retreat continue, but shifts in the location, intensity, and variability of rain and snow due to climate change will likely have a greater impact on regional water supplies. Himalayan Glaciers: Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security makes recommendations and sets guidelines for the future of climate change and water security in the Himalayan Region. This report emphasizes that social changes, such as changing patterns of water use and water management decisions, are likely to have at least as much of an impact on water demand as environmental factors do on water supply. Water scarcity will likely affect the rural and urban poor most severely, as these groups have the least capacity to move to new locations as needed. It is predicted that the region will become increasingly urbanized as cities expand to absorb migrants in search of economic opportunities. As living standards and populations rise, water use will likely increase-for example, as more people have diets rich in meat, more water will be needed for agricultural use. The effects of future climate change could further exacerbate water stress. Himalayan Glaciers: Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security explains that changes in the availability of water resources could play an increasing role in political tensions, especially if existing water management institutions do not better account for the social, economic, and ecological complexities of the region. To effectively respond to the effects of climate change, water management systems will need to take into account the social, economic, and ecological complexities of the region. This means it will be important to expand research and monitoring programs to gather more detailed, consistent, and accurate data on demographics, water supply, demand, and scarcity.
In order to confront the increasingly severe water problems faced by all parts of the country, the United States needs to make a new commitment to research on water resources. A new mechanism is needed to coordinate water research currently fragmented among nearly 20 federal agencies. Given the competition for water among farmers, communities, aquatic ecosystems and other users-as well as emerging challenges such as climate change and the threat of waterborne diseases-Confronting the Nation's Water Problems concludes that an additional $70 million in federal funding should go annually to water research. Funding should go specifically to the areas of water demand and use, water supply augmentation, and other institutional research topics. The book notes that overall federal funding for water research has been stagnant in real terms for the past 30 years and that the portion dedicated to research on water use and social science topics has declined considerably.
The Committees report examines the actions that will be necessary to adapt to changes in flooding and water availability caused by climate change. There are a number of steps that the Government should take to reduce future flood risk, with a key consideration being the planning of new housing developments to avoid building on flood plains, where possible. Where this is necessary, developments should be designed to be as resilient as possible to flooding, utilising sustainable drainage systems and including areas such as parks in order to contain floodwater. Existing sewer systems will need upgrading and new systems must be built to cope with higher storm flows. Greater attention needs to be paid by the Government to the issue of water shortages due to drier summers, including considering alternative water pricing mechanisms to relate costs more directly to amount used, and ensuring building regulations pay greater attention to water efficiency. Water companies must also do more to reduce water leakages.
The Everglades ecosystem is vast, stretching more than 200 miles from Orlando to Florida Bay, and Everglades National Park is but a part located at the southern end. During the 19th and 20th centuries, the historical Everglades has been reduced to half of its original size, and what remains is not the pristine ecosystem many image it to be, but one that has been highly engineered and otherwise heavily influenced, and is intensely managed by humans. Rather than slowly flowing southward in a broad river of grass, water moves through a maze of canals, levees, pump stations, and hydraulic control structures, and a substantial fraction is diverted from the natural system to meet water supply and flood control needs. The water that remains is polluted by phosphorus and other contaminants originating from agriculture and other human activities. Many components of the natural system are highly degraded and continue to degrade. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades is the sixth biennial review of progress made in meeting the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). This complex, multibillion-dollar project to protect and restore the remaining Everglades has a 30-40 year timeline. This report assesses progress made in the various separate project components and discusses specific scientific and engineering issues that may impact further progress. According to Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades, a dedicated source of funding could provide ongoing long-term system-wide monitoring and assessment that is critical to meeting restoration objectives. This report examines the implications of knowledge gained and changes in widely accepted scientific understanding regarding pre-drainage hydrology, climate change, and the feasibility of water storage since the CERP was developed.
This report finds that Europe is not doing enough to protect itself from the threats to water resources in large parts of the continent. Urgent action is required to safeguard water quality and availability in the UK and many areas of Europe which are already suffering from the effects of a significant lack of rain. The Government should bring forward the deadline for reforming the water abstraction regime, outlined in its Water White Paper ('Water for life', Cm. 8230, ISBN 9780101823029). More than 10% of rivers are abstracted to an extent that may damage water ecosystems, but the Government has set a target of the mid to late 2020s for reforming the regime, which fails to respond to the urgency of the situation. Other recommendations include: the EU must start planning immediately for a future in which water resources will be increasingly uncertain; the Government must allow the cost of water to increase where other measures to tackle water scarcity have failed; more must be done to promote the catchment level as an important level of governance, in the Blueprint for the future of the EU's water resources (due later this year); local stakeholders (for example, rivers trusts, amenity groups, anglers and farmers) should be allowed to play a much greater role in decisions on issues such as river catchments, in order to reconnect people with the value of water as a resource; and the EU should encourage all Member States to develop national water scarcity and drought management plans.
The Environmental Audit Committee states that the UK should only provide funding for multilateral institutions with strong environmental credentials. The current scale of the World Bank's lending to fossil fuel powered energy generation is unacceptable and the Committee urges the Government to be prepared to vote against new World Bank funding for high emissions coal-fired power stations. The profile of climate change has increased hugely but there is far less awareness of the importance of protecting biodiversity and ecosystems. The Committee believes that the Department for International Development (DFID) needs to publish a clear strategy on its approach to environmental issues to ensure that it gives them sufficient priority in its programmes and expenditure. Every effort must be made to help emerging economies leap-frog fossil fuels and fuel their growth with clean energy instead. High levels of consumption in the UK increases demand on production in poor countries which leads to degradation of their natural resources. The report calls on the UK Government to ensure that economic activity in Britain does not cancel out, or even reverse, the positive impact that UK aid is having overseas.
This report is intended to promote a dialogue between the scientific community and the government officials who will lead our nation in the coming years on global change research. The first section of the report is a brief description of the challenges and proposed responses needed from the highest levels of the government and the second provides more detailed discussion and is directed to agency-level issues and responses. The last section is a detailed bibliography that lists many of the specific reports on which the views outlined here are ultimately based.
Climate projections show that Britain can expect wetter winters, drier summers and a higher likelihood of flash-floods, heat waves and droughts. Yet adaptation to climate change has been given only a fraction of the attention that has gone into reducing greenhouse gases. The Government must build awareness and support for the wide-ranging and urgent programme of action that is needed to protect people, property and prosperity and safeguard the natural environment. Adapting infrastructure and homes will be expensive. To maintain current levels of flood protection for homes, real terms spending on flood defences will need to increase from its current level of around £600 million per annum to around £1 billion in 2035. Estimates in 2009 suggest that by the end of the century around £7 billion may be needed to improve the Thames flood barrier and tidal defences. New homes being built now must be designed to cope with the inevitable changes in climate over the next 50 - 80 years. The Government must make adaptation and mitigation more central to the planning system. New developments should only be permitted if they are suited to future climates. Existing homes will also need to be adapted so that they are comfortable during hotter summers and better protected against the risk of flooding. The Government must help to kick start an integrated retro-fitting programme that covers adaptation, water efficiency and energy efficiency. Green infrastructure - such as water storage, greater tree cover and more open green spaces - must also be promoted.
Global warming continues to gain importance on the international agenda and calls for action are heightening. Yet, there is still controversy over what must be done and what is needed to proceed. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming describes the information necessary to make decisions about global warming resulting from atmospheric releases of radiatively active trace gases. The conclusions and recommendations include some unexpected results. The distinguished authoring committee provides specific advice for U.S. policy and addresses the need for an international response to potential greenhouse warming. It offers a realistic view of gaps in the scientific understanding of greenhouse warming and how much effort and expense might be required to produce definitive answers. The book presents methods for assessing options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, offset emissions, and assist humans and unmanaged systems of plants and animals to adjust to the consequences of global warming.
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
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