Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability's Books

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

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Page Count

192

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

030915183X

ISBN 13

9780309151832

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

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192

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

030915183X

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9780309151832

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

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Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

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351

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309388805

ISBN 13

9780309388801

Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Document

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the NSF AGS Draft Science Goals and Objectives

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Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Document

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the NSF AGS Draft Science Goals and Objectives

Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Documents is a letter report by an ad hoc committee reviewing the AGS draft goals and objectives. It addresses the following questions: Are the goals and objectives clear and appropriate? Are there any content areas missing from the draft that should be present if AGS is to achieve its overall vision and mission? Are there adequate mechanisms for coordinating and integrating issues that involve multiple disciplines and multiple divisions within NSF and other agencies within the atmospheric and geospace sciences enterprise?

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309310512

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9780309310512

Thriving on Our Changing Planet

A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on the Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space

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Thriving on Our Changing Planet

A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.

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717

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309467578

ISBN 13

9780309467575

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

By: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies

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A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

By: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies

As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.

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252

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309259789

ISBN 13

9780309259781

Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

Water managers rely on predicting changes in the hydrologic cycle on seasonal-to-interannual time frames to prepare for water resource needs. Seasonal to interannual predictability of the hydrologic cycle is related to local and remote influences involving land processes and ocean processes, such as the El NiÃ±o Southern Oscillation. Although advances in understanding land-surface processes show promise in improving climate prediction, incorporating this information into water management decision processes remains a challenge since current models provide only limited information for predictions on seasonal and longer time scales. To address these needs, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) was established in 2001 to improve how changes in water resources are predicted on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales for the continental United States. The GAPP program has developed a science and implementation plan to guide its science activities, which describes strategies for improving prediction and decision support in the hydrologic sciences. This report by the National Research Council provides a review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan, outlining suggestions to strengthen the plan and the GAPP program overall.

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Page Count

142

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309096782

ISBN 13

9780309096782

Weather Services for the Nation

Becoming Second to None

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program

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Weather Services for the Nation

Becoming Second to None

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program

During the 1980s and 1990s, the National Weather Service (NWS) undertook a major program called the Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR). The MAR was officially completed in 2000. No comprehensive assessment of the execution of the MAR plan, or comparison of the promised benefits of the MAR to its actual impact, had ever been conducted. Therefore, Congress asked the National Academy of Sciences to conduct an end-to-end assessment. That report, The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment, concluded that the MAR was a success. Now, twelve years after the official completion of the MAR, the challenges faced by the NWS are no less important than those of the pre-MAR era. The three key challenges are: 1) Keeping Pace with accelerating scientific and technological advancement, 2) Meeting Expanding and Evolving User Needs in an increasingly information centric society, and 3) Partnering with an Increasingly Capable Enterprise that has grown considerably since the time of the MAR. Weather Services for the Nation presents three main recommendations for responding to these challenges. These recommendations will help the NWS address these challenges, making it more agile and effective. This will put it on a path to becoming second to none at integrating advances in science and technology into its operations and at meeting user needs, leading in some areas and keeping pace in others. It will have the highest quality core capabilities among national weather services. It will have a more agile organizational structure and workforce that allow it to directly or indirectly reach more end-users, save more lives, and help more businesses. And it will have leveraged these capabilities through the broader enterprise. This approach will make possible societal benefits beyond what the NWS budget alone allows.

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110

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

030925972X

ISBN 13

9780309259729

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.

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Published Date

ISBN 10

0309179858

ISBN 13

9780309179850

Book's by Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Document

Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Document

Thriving on Our Changing Planet

Thriving on Our Changing Planet

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

Weather Services for the Nation

Weather Services for the Nation

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

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