Committee on Abrupt Climate Change's Books

Abrupt Climate Change

Inevitable Surprises

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Polar Research Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Abrupt Climate Change

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Abrupt Climate Change

Inevitable Surprises

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Polar Research Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Abrupt Climate Change

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

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Page Count

252

Publisher

National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309133041

ISBN 13

9780309133043

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change

Anticipating Surprises

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts

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Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change

Anticipating Surprises

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts

Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

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Page Count

281

Publisher

National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309287766

ISBN 13

9780309287760

Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

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Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems facing the world today. Policy decisions are already being made to limit or adapt to climate change and its impacts, but there is a need for greater integration between science and decision making. This book proposes six priorities for restructuring the United States' climate change research program to develop a more robust knowledge base and support informed responses: Reorganize the Program Around Integrated Scientific-Societal Issues Establish a U.S. Climate Observing System Support a New Generation of Coupled Earth System Models Strengthen Research on Adaptation, Mitigation, and Vulnerability Initiate a National Assessment of the Risks and Costs of Climate Change Impacts and Options to Respond Coordinate Federal Efforts to Provide Climate Information, Tools, and Forecasts Routinely to Decision Makers

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Page Count

266

Publisher

National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309131731

ISBN 13

9780309131735

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Climate Research Committee,Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate

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Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Climate Research Committee,Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate

Changes in climate are driven by natural and human-induced perturbations of the Earth's energy balance. These climate drivers or "forcings" include variations in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun. Although climate throughout Earth's history has varied from "snowball" conditions with global ice cover to "hothouse" conditions when glaciers all but disappeared, the climate over the past 10,000 years has been remarkably stable and favorable to human civilization. Increasing evidence points to a large human impact on global climate over the past century. The report reviews current knowledge of climate forcings and recommends critical research needed to improve understanding. Whereas emphasis to date has been on how these climate forcings affect global mean temperature, the report finds that regional variation and climate impacts other than temperature deserve increased attention.

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Page Count

222

Publisher

National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309133505

ISBN 13

9780309133500

Book's by Committee on Abrupt Climate Change

Abrupt Climate Change

Abrupt Climate Change

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change

Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

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