Bayesian Networks “This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation.” Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science Second Edition Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates diffculties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.
The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass Interpretation Fibres Interpretation Bayes’ Nets The title presents comprehensive coverage of the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It is written with the assumption of a modest mathematical background and is illustrated throughout with up-to-date examples from a forensic science background. The clarity of exposition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, lawyers and other professionals in related fields interested in the quantitative assessment and evaluation of evidence. 'There can be no doubt that the appreciation of some evidence in a court of law has been greatly enhanced by the sound use of statistical ideas and one can be confident that the next decade will see further developments, during which time this book will admirably serve those who have cause to use statistics in forensic science.' D.V. Lindley
This is the first text to examine the use of statistical methods in forensic science and bayesian statistics in combination. The book is split into two parts: Part One concentrates on the philosophies of statistical inference. Chapter One examines the differences between the frequentist, the likelihood and the Bayesian perspectives, before Chapter Two explores the Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective further, and looks at the benefits it carries. Part Two then introduces the reader to the practical aspects involved: the application, interpretation, summary and presentation of data analyses are all examined from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. A wide range of statistical methods, essential in the analysis of forensic scientific data is explored. These include the comparison of allele proportions in populations, the comparison of means, the choice of sampling size, and the discrimination of items of evidence of unknown origin into predefined populations. Throughout this practical appraisal there are a wide variety of examples taken from the routine work of forensic scientists. These applications are demonstrated in the ever-more popular R language. The reader is taken through these applied examples in a step-by-step approach, discussing the methods at each stage.
A practical guide for determining the evidential value of physicochemical data Microtraces of various materials (e.g. glass, paint, fibres, and petroleum products) are routinely subjected to physicochemical examination by forensic experts, whose role is to evaluate such physicochemical data in the context of the prosecution and defence propositions. Such examinations return various kinds of information, including quantitative data. From the forensic point of view, the most suitable way to evaluate evidence is the likelihood ratio. This book provides a collection of recent approaches to the determination of likelihood ratios and describes suitable software, with documentation and examples of their use in practice. The statistical computing and graphics software environment R, pre-computed Bayesian networks using Hugin Researcher and a new package, calcuLatoR, for the computation of likelihood ratios are all explored. Statistical Analysis in Forensic Science will provide an invaluable practical guide for forensic experts and practitioners, forensic statisticians, analytical chemists, and chemometricians. Key features include: Description of the physicochemical analysis of forensic trace evidence. Detailed description of likelihood ratio models for determining the evidential value of multivariate physicochemical data. Detailed description of methods, such as empirical cross-entropy plots, for assessing the performance of likelihood ratio-based methods for evidence evaluation. Routines written using the open-source R software, as well as Hugin Researcher and calcuLatoR. Practical examples and recommendations for the use of all these methods in practice.
Turning Information into Knowledge Science of Synthesis: Houben-Weyl Methods of Molecular Transformations is the entirely new edition of the acclaimed reference series, Houben-Weyl, the standard synthetic chemistry resource since 1909. This new edition is published in English and will comprise of 48 volumes published between the years 2000 and 2008. Science of Synthesis is a quality reference work developed by a highly esteemed editorial board to provide a comprehensive and critical selection of reliable organic and organometallic synthetic methods. Science of Synthesis is designed to be the first point of reference when searching for a synthesis strategy. This volume covers the synthesis of five-membered heterocyclic compounds with an oxygen-, sulfur-, nitrogen-, selenium-, tellurium-, or phosphorus-containing heterocycle fused to one or two benzenoid rings. Volume 10 presents selected procedures for the synthesis of benzoannulated five-membered hetarenes. It covers the synthesis of heterocyclic compounds with widely differing stabilities and chemical and physical properties ranging from unstable hetarenes, such as benzo[c]furans, to very stable dibenzohetarenes, such as dibenzothiophene. For full information on the Science of Synthesis series, visit the Science of Synthesis Homepage. Series Editors: D. Bellus, S. V. Ley, R. Noyori, M. Regitz, E. Schaumann, I. Shinkai, E. J. Thomas, B. M. Trost, P. J. Reider.
What makes a good scandal? Money, politics and power, and a huge dose of media interest. Scandal reigns in the world of politics, celebrity, business, religion, royalty and art, and this book covers it all - from Watergate to Michael Jackson, Diana to Oscar Wilde. Distinguished writer Colin Wilson delves into the murky intrigues of British and American life to bring the most scandalous secrets to light. Containing brand new chapters on Michael Jackson, ENRON, the death of David Kelly, the Catholic Church sex scandals and the cash-for-honours scandal, and an updated chapter on OJ Simpson, here are the embarrassing true stories the rich and famous tried but failed to hide.
What makes a good scandal? Money, politics and power, and a huge dose of media interest. Scandal reigns in the world of politics, celebrity, business, religion, royalty and art, and this book covers it all - from Watergate to Michael Jackson, Diana to Oscar Wilde. Distinguished writer Colin Wilson delves into the murky intrigues of British and American life to bring the most scandalous secrets to light. Containing brand new chapters on Michael Jackson, ENRON, the death of David Kelly, the Catholic Church sex scandals and the cash-for-honours scandal, and an updated chapter on OJ Simpson, here are the embarrassing true stories the rich and famous tried but failed to hide.
Colditz Castle was Nazi Germany’s infamous ‘escape-proof’ wartime prison, where hundreds of the most determined and resourceful Allied prisoners were sent. Despite having more guards than inmates, Australian Lieutenant Jack Champ and other prisoners tirelessly carried out their campaign to escape from the massive floodlit stronghold, by any means necessary. In this riveting account – by turns humorous, heartfelt and tragic – historian Colin Burgess and Lieutenant Jack Champ, from the point of view of the prisoners themselves, tell the story of the twenty Australians who made this castle their ‘home’, and the plans they made that were so crazy that some even achieved the seemingly impossible – escape! ‘A stirring testimony of mateship . . . We are often on tenterhooks, always impressed by their determination, industry and courage’ Australian Book Review
It was the " American Menace" according to the Scottish and English newspapers of the 1920s. The best players in the Scottish leagues were being drawn to American companies that offered good jobs in return for playing on the company soccer team. The resulting squads, many of them ethnic, beat the best teams in the world at that time. This period from 1921 to 1931 were the "Golden Years of American Soccer." With the skyrocketing economic prosperity of the United States and its corollary flood of new immigrants to America's shores, came interest in soccer as a new form of sports entertainment. It grew rapidly around Northeastern industrial towns like Fall River, Massachusetts, and Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. As with the popular North American Soccer League of the 1970s and 80s and its imported stars like Pele, the American Soccer League of the 1920s bid for the best soccer players in the world, creating a competitive, fertile environment for the growth of soccer. Unfortunately, few detailed records remain about these great teams and players. League records were lost after W.W. II and newspaper coverage was concentrated in smaller cities. Many of the League's heretofore unknown players possess no first name in print, and the unfortunate losers of matches and league championship games often went unreported altogether. During the later, tougher years of the Depression, many of the foreign players hunkered down in jobs or returned to their native countries. The disbanded American Soccer League was revived under the same name but very different circumstances in 1933, but never reached the same level of skill as during the 1920s. American Soccer League 1921-1931 is the result of Colin Jose's tireless determination to provide accurate history of soccer's evolution in the United States. Soccer was one of the most popular sports in the United States during the 1920s, often drawing huge crowds in relatively small towns to see the world's best players compete. Documented through thousands of newspaper clipp
The amazing life of Pieter Krueler (1885-1986) provides a window into a full century of conflict such as one man rarely experiences. Four-War Boer traces KruelerÍs highly colorful life from the Second Boer War, where he first served as a 14-year-old scout, through his service in World War I with the German army in East Africa, to the Spanish Civil War to World War II, this time with the Allies, and on into the latter part of the 20th century, when he served as a mercenary during the 1960s Congo Crisis. Later, by this time in his eighties, he became a civilian trainer for the original Selous Scouts of Rhodesia, and later still a trainer for South African commandos. This biography of a most remarkable man and warrior is based on six years of historical research through hard-to-find secondary and published primary sources as well as extensive interviews with Krueler himself. Interviews with German officers and others who knew and worked with Krueler amply document the biography, adding first-person testimony and giving the work the immediacy of a memoir. Following the Boer defeat by the British, Krueler sided with the Germans during the East African Campaign. He also operated in the Belgian Congo where he led native African soldiers on extremely dangerous missions. After WWI, KruelerÍs distrust of both the rising Fascist and Communist movements in Europe led him to volunteer as a mercenary during the Spanish Civil War, where he worked with the Pyrenees Basque movement. In World War II, he worked as a reserve officer instructor, and later as a coast watcher to guard the coast of South Africa from German incursion. Krueler later served as a mercenary with Michael Hoare during the 1960s Congo Crisis, before serving South Africa to train commandos. A chapter of this book is devoted to the formation of RhodesiaÍs highly elite Selous Scouts, along with highlights of several previously classified missions. This material includes a wealth of fascinating new information, and breaks the great secrecy surrounding Rhodesian and South African special operations, as unveiled through the experience of a man who was a founding father of counterinsurgency in Africa.
This book looks at the ways in which prime ministers manage and fail to manage their public communication. A timely examination of the ways in which prime ministers manage and fail to manage their public communication. Original in scope, covering political rumours, political cartoons and capital cities, in addition to more familiar topics. Sets contemporary analysis of Downing Street press secretaries, media barons and press conferences in fuller historical context than usual. Draws on public records, private papers and interviews by the author dating back to the 1960s.
The harrowing story of the Allied airmen who experienced the true horrors of Nazism firsthand. It was the summer of 1944 as liberating Allied forces surged towards Paris following the D-Day landings. For a large group of downed airmen being held in that city’s infamous Fresnes Prison, they were about to face evacuation into the blackest, bloody heart of Germany and experience the most acute evil of the war. Amid great secrecy, those 168 airmen – including several from Australia and New Zealand – were transported on a filthy, overcrowded nightmare train journey which ended at the notorious Buchenwald concentration camp, accompanied by orders for their execution. At Buchenwald they witnessed extreme depravity that would haunt them to the end of their days. Yet, on returning home, they were confronted by decades of denials from their own governments that they had ever been held in one of Hitler’s most vile concentration camps. In conducting his original deep research for this book – now completely expanded and updated – Colin Burgess personally interviewed or corresponded with dozens of the surviving airmen from a number of nations, including their valorous leader, New Zealand Squadron Leader Phil Lamason. Destination Buchenwald tells a compelling story of extraordinary bravery, comradeship and endurance, when a group of otherwise ordinary servicemen were thrust into an unimaginable Nazi hell. 'This was the first book to provide an insight into our experiences as a group of captured allied airmen, betrayed to the Gestapo, tortured and deported to Buchenwald concentration camp. I consider it to be one of the best interpretations of the events as it reflects the voices of the survivors and their challenges to stay alive in such dehumanising circumstances.' Sqn Ldr Stanley Booker, RAF (Rtd.), MBE, Légion D'Honneur: Last surviving member of the Buchenwald airmen
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