Since 1975, The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction has introduced legions of statistics students and researchers to the theory and practice of time series analysis. With each successive edition, best-selling author Chris Chatfield has honed and refined his presentation, updated the material to reflect advances in the field, and presented interesting new data sets.The sixth edition is no exception. It provides an accessible, comprehensive introduction to the theory and practice of time series analysis. The treatment covers a wide range of topics, including ARIMA probability models, forecasting methods, spectral analysis, linear systems, state-space models, and the Kalman filter. It also addresses nonlinear, multivariate, and long-memory models. The author has carefully updated each chapter, added new discussions, incorporated new datasets, and made those datasets available for download from www crcpress.com/e products/downloads/.; H ighlights of the Sixth Edition: A new section on Handling Real Data New discussion on prediction intervals A completely revised and restructured chapter on more advanced topics, with new material on the aggregation of time series, analyzing time series in finance, and discrete-valued time series A new chapter of Examples and Practical Advice Thorough updates and revisions throughout the text that reflect recent developments and dramatic changes in computing practices over the last few yearsThe analysis of time series can be a difficult topic, but as this book has demonstrated for two-and-a-half decades, it does not have to be daunting. The accessibility, polished presentation, and broad coverage of The Analysis of Time Series make it simply the best introduction to the subject available.
One of the most popular introductory texts in its field, Statistics for Technology: A Course in Applied Studies presents the range of statistical methods commonly used in science, social science, and engineering. The mathematics are simple and straightforward; statistical concepts are explained carefully; and real-life (rather than contrived) examples are used throughout the chapters. Divided into three parts, the Introduction describes some simple methods of summarizing data. Theory examines the basic concepts and theory of statistics. Applications covers the planning and procedures of experiments, quality control, and life testing. Revised throughout, this Third Edition places a higher priority on the role of computers in analysis, and many new references have been incorporated. A new appendix describes general methods of tackling statistical problems, including guidance on literature searching and report writing.
Time-series analysis is an area of statistics which is of particular interest at the present time. Time series arise in many different areas, ranging from marketing to oceanography, and the analysis of such series raises many problems of both a theoretical and practical nature. I first became interested in the subject as a postgraduate student at Imperial College, when I attended a stimulating course of lectures on time-series given by Dr. (now Professor) G. M. Jenkins. The subject has fascinated me ever since. Several books have been written on theoretical aspects of time-series analysis. The aim of this book is to provide an introduction to the subject which bridges the gap between theory and practice. The book has also been written to make what is rather a difficult subject as understandable as possible. Enough theory is given to introduce the concepts of time-series analysis and to make the book mathematically interesting. In addition, practical problems are considered so as to help the reader tackle the analysis of real data. The book assumes a knowledge of basic probability theory and elementary statistical inference (see Appendix III). The book can be used as a text for an undergraduate or postgraduate course in time-series, or it can be used for self tuition by research workers. Throughout the book, references are usually given to recent readily accessible books and journals rather than to the original attributive references. Wold's (1965) bibliography contains many time series references published before 1959.
This new edition of this classic title, now in its seventh edition, presents a balanced and comprehensive introduction to the theory, implementation, and practice of time series analysis. The book covers a wide range of topics, including ARIMA models, forecasting methods, spectral analysis, linear systems, state-space models, the Kalman filters, nonlinear models, volatility models, and multivariate models. It also presents many examples and implementations of time series models and methods to reflect advances in the field. Highlights of the seventh edition: A new chapter on univariate volatility models A revised chapter on linear time series models A new section on multivariate volatility models A new section on regime switching models Many new worked examples, with R code integrated into the text The book can be used as a textbook for an undergraduate or a graduate level time series course in statistics. The book does not assume many prerequisites in probability and statistics, so it is also intended for students and data analysts in engineering, economics, and finance. witching models Many new worked examples, with R code integrated into the text The book can be used as a textbook for an undergraduate or a graduate level time series course in statistics. The book does not assume many prerequisites in probability and statistics, so it is also intended for students and data analysts in engineering, economics, and finance.
Spinglish—the devious dialect of English used by professional spin doctors—is all around us. And the fact is, until you’ve mastered it, politicians and corporations (not to mention your colleagues and friends) will continue putting things over on you, and generally getting the better of you, every minute of every day—without your even knowing it. However, once you perfect the art of terminological inexactitude, you’ll be the one manipulating and one-upping everyone else! And here’s the beauty part: Henry Beard and Christopher Cerf, authors of the New York Times semi-bestseller The Official Politically Correct Dictionary and Handbook, have compiled this handy yet astonishingly comprehensive lexicon and translation guide—a fictionary, if you will—to help you do just that. If you want to succeed in business (or politics, sports, the arts, or life in general) without really lying, this is the book for you! (Your results may vary.) Spinglish includes these nifty bits of spurious verbiage and over a thousand more: aesthetic procedure – face-lift dairy nutrients – cow manure enhanced interrogation techniques – torture “For your convenience.” – “For our convenience.” hands-on mentoring – sexual relations with a junior employee incomplete success – failure rightsizing – firing people zero-tasking – doing nothing With each and every entry sourced from some of the greatest real-life language benders in the world today, you’re virtually guaranteed to have the perfectly chosen tried-and-untrue term right at the tip of your forked tongue. Wish you could nimbly sidestep a question without batting an eye? Not sure how to apologize while also . . . not apologizing? Spinglish has you covered. Simply consult this convenient, shoot-from-the-lip glossary, and before you know it, you’ll be telling it like it isn’t, it wasn’t, and it couldn’t ever have been.
Winner of the 2013 DeGroot Prize. A state-of-the-art presentation of spatio-temporal processes, bridging classic ideas with modern hierarchical statistical modeling concepts and the latest computational methods Noel Cressie and Christopher K. Wikle, are also winners of the 2011 PROSE Award in the Mathematics category, for the book “Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data” (2011), published by John Wiley and Sons. (The PROSE awards, for Professional and Scholarly Excellence, are given by the Association of American Publishers, the national trade association of the US book publishing industry.) Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data has now been reprinted with small corrections to the text and the bibliography. The overall content and pagination of the new printing remains the same; the difference comes in the form of corrections to typographical errors, editing of incomplete and missing references, and some updated spatio-temporal interpretations. From understanding environmental processes and climate trends to developing new technologies for mapping public-health data and the spread of invasive-species, there is a high demand for statistical analyses of data that take spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal information into account. Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data presents a systematic approach to key quantitative techniques that incorporate the latest advances in statistical computing as well as hierarchical, particularly Bayesian, statistical modeling, with an emphasis on dynamical spatio-temporal models. Cressie and Wikle supply a unique presentation that incorporates ideas from the areas of time series and spatial statistics as well as stochastic processes. Beginning with separate treatments of temporal data and spatial data, the book combines these concepts to discuss spatio-temporal statistical methods for understanding complex processes. Topics of coverage include: Exploratory methods for spatio-temporal data, including visualization, spectral analysis, empirical orthogonal function analysis, and LISAs Spatio-temporal covariance functions, spatio-temporal kriging, and time series of spatial processes Development of hierarchical dynamical spatio-temporal models (DSTMs), with discussion of linear and nonlinear DSTMs and computational algorithms for their implementation Quantifying and exploring spatio-temporal variability in scientific applications, including case studies based on real-world environmental data Throughout the book, interesting applications demonstrate the relevance of the presented concepts. Vivid, full-color graphics emphasize the visual nature of the topic, and a related FTP site contains supplementary material. Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data is an excellent book for a graduate-level course on spatio-temporal statistics. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of applied mathematics, engineering, and the environmental and health sciences.
Examines the leader's record as a naval strategist and his impact on naval power, seeking to debunk misconceptions about his failed campaigns and devasting losses during both World Wars.
This entrancing book looks at [the clash of class and caste within the black community] . . . . An important reexamination of African American history." —Choice The 1893 World's Columbian Exposition in Chicago showed the world that America had come of age. Dreaming that they could participate fully as citizens, African Americans flocked to the fair by the thousands. "All the World Is Here!" examines why they came and the ways in which they took part in the Exposition. Their expectations varied. Well-educated, highly assimilated African Americans sought not just representation but also membership at the highest level of decision making and planning. They wanted to participate fully in all intellectual and cultural events. Instead, they were given only token roles and used as window dressing. Their stories of pathos and joy, disappointment and hope, are part of the lost history of "White City." Frederick Douglass, who embodied the dream that inclusion within the American mainstream was possible, would never forget America's World's Fair snub.
An original study of British foreign policymaking at the highest level, this book will be widely read by international relations specialists while historians will welcome the close-textured account of key episodes of the period 1938-41. It will also reinvigorate debates among political scientists on the nature of Cabinet government.
This first volume in the seminal series on World War II aerial combat, pilots, and tactics that “reads like an encyclopedia on the subject” (Portland Book Review). In the early days of World War II, both Allied and Axis powers extended the theater of war to North Africa, where hard-fought battles were conducted in the harsh desert. But before anyone could claim victory on the ground, they had to hold dominion in the air. Here, historian Christopher Shores has combined his books Fighters over the Desert and Fighters over Tunisia into one volume, as well as adding updated information about the deadly fighter aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft, and maritime units active in the Mediterranean. Full of in-depth research and featuring essential maps, this is “an intimate introspection by these men of their experiences and the respect that they shared not only for each other but also their adversaries” (The Military Reviewer).
With so many superb trails in the New York City area, planning a hike can be a frustrating endeavor. Which one for an all-day outing? Where can I take my dog? Which are suitable for young children? With this newly revised and updated edition of 60 Hikes Within 60 Miles: New York City all of those questions will be answered. From secluded woods and sun-struck seashores, to lowland swamps and rock-strewn mountain tops, these hikes showcase Paleolithic rock shelters, ruins from the Revolutionary and Civil War periods, a bat cave, ghostly ruins, and much, much more. Unbounded by state lines, the trails awaiting hikers in the updated edition of 60 Hikes Within 60 Miles: New York City include a meandering ascent of Jenny Jump Mountain in Hope, New Jersey, a deep exploration of Trout Brook Valley near Weston, and a scenic section of the Appalachian Trail that runs by Fitzgerald Falls in New York. Packed with valuable tips and humorous observations, the guide prepares both novices and veterans for the outdoors and includes all the information hikers need to get the most out of the trails, including: • Driving directions and GPS coordinates for all 60 trailheads to take the guesswork out of the trip • At-a-glance data on length, hiking time, difficulty, scenery, traffic and accessibility • Specifics on good hikes for kids, dogs, rock scramblers, bird watching, and much more • Plus, the authors offer a wide range of suggestions for outdoor recreation and nearby attractions including 20 additional hiking options With rock-scrambling ascents to bald summits and peaceful rambles to hidden lakes, from swamp streams to roaring waterfalls, 60 Hikes Within 60 Miles: New York City is an indispensable guide for hikers (and walkers) looking for a few hours escape from the modern world.
In a time of great need for Britain, a small coterie of influential businessmen gained access to secret information on industrial mobilisation as advisers to the Principal Supply Officers Committee. They provided the state with priceless advice, but, as insiders utilised their access to information to build a business empire at a fraction of the normal costs. Outsiders, in contrast, lacked influence and were forced together into a defensive ring - or cartel - which effectively fixed prices for British warships. By the 1930s, the cartel grew into one of the most sophisticated profiteering groups of its day. This book examines the relationship between the private naval armaments industry, businessmen, and the British government defence planners between the wars. It reassesses the concept of the military-industrial complex through the impact of disarmament upon private industry, the role of leading industrialists in supply and procurement policy, and the successes and failings of government organisation. It blends together political, naval, and business history in new ways, and, by situating the business activities of industrialists alongside their work as government advisors, sheds new light on the operation of the British state. This is the story of how these men profited while effectively saving the National Government from itself.
Practical Social Investigation provides, within a single text, an introduction to a wide range of both long-standing and newer social research methods. Its balanced and integrated coverage of qualitative and quantitative approaches demonstrates that they can be complementary. While research practice is emphasised, readers are encouraged to reflect on methodological issues as well as being provided with tools for their own research.This coherent, accessibly written book draws upon the authors' extensive experience of conducting research and teaching research methods. Numerous examples, based on real research studies, illustrate key issues in a way that acknowledges both the messiness and the creativity of social research.
Arms control diplomacy as a central factor in superpower relations is not a new phenomenon. In this book, Christopher Hall traces the rise and fall of a previous arms limitation effort, the naval treaties of the interwar years, which successfully controlled competition in the strategic weapons of that era - the battleships and other vessels of the British, American and other 'great power' navies. He shows the problems and their solutions - many of relevance today - which made the treaties possible, and their major role in the peaceful transfer of leadership of the west from the British Empire to the United States.
When the Smithsonian Institution's first Hall of Physical Anthropology opened in 1965, the first thing visitors saw were 160 Andean skulls fixed to the wall like a mushroom cloud. Empires of the Dead explains that Skull Wall's origins, and this introduction establishes its scope: a history from 1532 to the present of how the collection of Inca mummies, Andean crania, and a pre-Hispanic surgery named trepanation made "ancient Peruvians" the single largest population in the Smithsonian and many other museums in Peru, the Americas, and the world. This introduction argues that the Hall of Physical Anthropology displayed these collections while hiding their foundation on Indigenous, Andean, and Peruvian cultures of healing and science. These "Peruvian ancestors" of American anthropology reveal the importance of Indigenous and Latin American science and empire to global history, and their relevance to debates over museums and Indigenous human remains today"--
The Chicago NAACP was one of the first branches created in an effort to attain first-class citizenship for African Americans. Through the first six decades of white resistance, black indifference, and internal group struggle, the branch endured the effects of two world wars, national depression, the Cold War, and growing class differentiation among blacks. Ida B. Wells-Barnett, Jane Addams, Dr. Charles E. Bentley, and Earl B. Dickerson were some early reformers who influenced the development of the Chicago NAACP during these earliest days.
This catalogue celebrates the recently installed collection of twentieth-century sculpture donated to the J. Paul Getty Trust by the Fran and Ray Stark Trust in 2005. The book takes the reader on a visual tour of the J. Paul Getty Museum's new sculpture gardens and installations, which features twenty-eight works by artists such as Alexander Calder, Alberto Giacometti, Ferdinand Leger, Roy Lichtenstein, Rene Magritte, Aristide Maillol, Joan Miro, Henry Moore, and Isamu Noguchi. The book offers essays on the curatorial decisions involved in establishing harmonious groupings; a history of European and American sculpture within built outdoor environments and gardens; and catalogue entries that discuss individual pieces within their broader art-historical contexts.
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