This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can be learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject to sharp disagreements. Building on the foundation laid in the author's Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (Harvard, 1995), the book's fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population. Part III studies prediction of choice behavior. Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of probability theory.
Adapted to a major motion picture by director Martin Scorsese, The Aviator stars Leonardo DiCaprio as Howard Hughes! His wealth was legendary. His passions were bizarre. Charles Higham's biography tells the truth about the money, the madness, and the man behind the enigma. Howard Hughes is one of the best known and least understood men of our times--famed for his wealth, his daring, and his descent into madness. Bestselling biographer Higham goes beyond the enigma to reveal the incredible private life of Howard Hughes: * his romances with the great stars of Hollywood--Katharine Hepburn, Bette Davis, Cary Grant, Tyrone Power, and numerous others * his forays into sadomasochism * his involvement with Richard Nixon and Watergate * his bizarre final years This is a compelling portrait of a unique American figure--in a story as revealing as it is unforgettable.
Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics A modern perspective on mixed models The availability of powerful computing methods in recent decades has thrust linear and nonlinear mixed models into the mainstream of statistical application. This volume offers a modern perspective on generalized, linear, and mixed models, presenting a unified and accessible treatment of the newest statistical methods for analyzing correlated, nonnormally distributed data. As a follow-up to Searle's classic, Linear Models, and Variance Components by Searle, Casella, and McCulloch, this new work progresses from the basic one-way classification to generalized linear mixed models. A variety of statistical methods are explained and illustrated, with an emphasis on maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood. An invaluable resource for applied statisticians and industrial practitioners, as well as students interested in the latest results, Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models features: * A review of the basics of linear models and linear mixed models * Descriptions of models for nonnormal data, including generalized linear and nonlinear models * Analysis and illustration of techniques for a variety of real data sets * Information on the accommodation of longitudinal data using these models * Coverage of the prediction of realized values of random effects * A discussion of the impact of computing issues on mixed models
Statisticians and researchers will find this book, newly updated for SAS/STAT 12.1, to be a useful discussion of categorical data analysis techniques as well as an invaluable aid in applying these methods with SAS.
Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.
In the sound of the 1960s and 1970s, nothing symbolized the rift between black and white America better than the seemingly divided genres of country and soul. Yet the music emerged from the same songwriters, musicians, and producers in the recording studios of Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee, and Muscle Shoals, Alabama--what Charles L. Hughes calls the "country-soul triangle." In legendary studios like Stax and FAME, integrated groups of musicians like Booker T. and the MGs and the Muscle Shoals Rhythm Section produced music that both challenged and reconfirmed racial divisions in the United States. Working with artists from Aretha Franklin to Willie Nelson, these musicians became crucial contributors to the era's popular music and internationally recognized symbols of American racial politics in the turbulent years of civil rights protests, Black Power, and white backlash. Hughes offers a provocative reinterpretation of this key moment in American popular music and challenges the conventional wisdom about the racial politics of southern studios and the music that emerged from them. Drawing on interviews and rarely used archives, Hughes brings to life the daily world of session musicians, producers, and songwriters at the heart of the country and soul scenes. In doing so, he shows how the country-soul triangle gave birth to new ways of thinking about music, race, labor, and the South in this pivotal period.
Rossinow revisits the period between the 1880s and the 1940s, when reformers and radicals worked together along a middle path between the revolutionary left and establishment liberalism. He takes the story up to the present, showing how the progressive connection was lost and explaining the consequences that followed.
A comprehensive introduction to a wide variety of statistical methods for the analysis of repeated measurements. It is designed to be both a useful reference for practitioners and a textbook for a graduate-level course focused on methods for the analysis of repeated measurements. The important features of this book include a comprehensive coverage of classical and recent methods for continuous and categorical outcome variables; numerous homework problems at the end of each chapter; and the extensive use of real data sets in examples and homework problems.
Popular American essayist, novelist, and journalist CHARLES DUDLEY WARNER (1829-1900) was renowned for the warmth and intimacy of his writing, which encompassed travelogue, biography and autobiography, fiction, and more, and influenced entire generations of his fellow writers. Here, the prolific writer turned editor for his final grand work, a splendid survey of global literature, classic and modern, and it's not too much to suggest that if his friend and colleague Mark Twain-who stole Warner's quip about how "everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it"-had assembled this set, it would still be hailed today as one of the great achievements of the book world. Highlights from Volume 3 include: . selections from Emile Augier's The Adventuress . selections from Saint Augustine's Confessions . writings of Jane Austen . essays and letters of Francis Bacon . literary and political criticism by Walter Bagehot . the ballads of Robin Hood, Childe Maurice, and others . selections from the works of Honor de Balzac . and much, much more.
In his eye-opening book Why?, world-renowned social scientist Charles Tilly exposed some startling truths about the excuses people make and the reasons they give. Now he's back with further explorations into the complexities of human relationships, this time examining what's really going on when we assign credit or cast blame. Everybody does it, but few understand the hidden motivations behind it. With his customary wit and dazzling insight, Tilly takes a lively and thought-provoking look at the ways people fault and applaud each other and themselves. The stories he gathers in Credit and Blame range from the everyday to the altogether unexpected, from the revealingly personal to the insightfully humorous--whether it's the gushing acceptance speech of an Academy Award winner or testimony before a congressional panel, accusations hurled in a lover's quarrel or those traded by nations in a post-9/11 crisis, or a job promotion or the Nobel Prize. Drawing examples from literature, history, pop culture, and much more, Tilly argues that people seek not only understanding through credit and blame, but also justice. The punishment must fit the crime, accomplishments should be rewarded, and the guilty parties must always get their just deserts. Brilliantly conceived and masterfully written, Credit and Blame is a book that revolutionizes our understanding of the compliments we pay and the accusations we make.
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