The macroeconomic development of most major industrial economies is characterised by boom-bust cycles. Normally such boom-bust cycles are driven by specific sectors of the economy. In the financial meltdown of the years 2007–9 it was the credit sector and the real-estate sector that were the main driving forces. This book takes on the challenge of interpreting and modelling this meltdown. In doing so it revives the traditional Keynesian approach to the financial-real economy interaction and the business cycle, extending it in several important ways. In particular, it adopts the Keynesian view of a hierarchy of markets and introduces a detailed financial sector into the traditional Keynesian framework. The approach of the book goes beyond the currently dominant paradigm based on the representative agent, market clearing and rational economic agents. Instead it proposes an economy populated with heterogeneous, rationally bounded agents attempting to cope with disequilibria in various markets.
The early exercise opportunity of an American option makes it challenging to price and an array of approaches have been proposed in the vast literature on this topic. In The Numerical Solution of the American Option Pricing Problem, Carl Chiarella, Boda Kang and Gunter Meyer focus on two numerical approaches that have proved useful for finding all prices, hedge ratios and early exercise boundaries of an American option. One is a finite difference approach which is based on the numerical solution of the partial differential equations with the free boundary problem arising in American option pricing, including the method of lines, the component wise splitting and the finite difference with PSOR. The other approach is the integral transform approach which includes Fourier or Fourier Cosine transforms. Written in a concise and systematic manner, Chiarella, Kang and Meyer explain and demonstrate the advantages and limitations of each of them based on their and their co-workers' experiences with these approaches over the years.
This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically-oriented economists explores one of the dominant paradigms in financial economics: the ‘intertemporal general equilibrium approach’.
The essays in this special volume survey some of the most recent advances in the global analysis of dynamic models for economics, finance and the social sciences. They deal in particular with a range of topics from mathematical methods as well as numerous applications including recent developments on asset pricing, heterogeneous beliefs, global bifurcations in complementarity games, international subsidy games and issues in economic geography. A number of stochastic dynamic models are also analysed. The book is a collection of essays in honour of the 60th birthday of Laura Gardini.
In this book on disequilibrium, growth and labor market dynamics we take predominantly a macroeconomic perspective. We present a working model that can easily be varied in different directions in order to subsume innovations in the literature on macroeconomics, old and new, and to contribute to important currently discussed macroeconomic issues. Our working model is set up in a way that there is a close relationship between our presented dynamic models and modern macro econometric models with disequilibrium both in the labor and the goods markets. One of our objectives is, therefore, to narrow the gap between theoretical and applied structural macrodynamic model building. We hope that the book will be a useful reference for all researchers, academic teachers and practitioners of macroeconomic and macro econometric model building who are interested in economic dynamics, independently of whether they use equilibrium or disequilibrium methods in their own research. We base this hope on the fact that our approach contains a number of unique features. The emphasis on the identification and analysis of the basic feedback mechanisms at work in modern macro economies. A detailed study of the partial as well as integrated dynamic interaction between these feedback mechanisms that consti tute the interdependence of markets and sectors of the modern macro economy. The rela tionship between the macroeconomic framework of our working model and the Walrasian, Non-Walrasian and New-Keynesian reformulations of macroeconomics.
This book examines sustainable wealth formation and dynamic decision-making. The global economy experienced a veritable meltdown of asset markets in the years 2007-9, where many funds were overexposed to risky returns and suffered considerable losses. On the other hand, the long-term upswing in the stock market since 2010 has led to asset price booms and some new, but also uneven, wealth formation. In this book a broader set of constraints and guidelines for asset management and wealth accumulation is developed. The authors investigate how wealth formation and the proper management of financial funds can help to adequately buffer income risk and obtain sufficient risk-free income at a later stage of life, while also being socially and environmentally sustainable. The book explores behavioral and institutional rules for decision-making that reflect such constraints and guidelines, without necessarily being optimal in the narrow sense. The authors explain the need for such a dynamic decision-making and dynamic re-balancing of portfolios, by putting forward dynamic programming as an approach to dynamic decision-making that can allow sustainable wealth accumulation and dynamic asset allocation to be successfully integrated. This book provides a clear and comprehensive treatment of asset accumulation and dynamic portfolio models with an emphasis on long term and sustainable wealth formation. An important concern in public debate is the sustainability of our economy and this book employs cutting edge quantitative techniques and models to highlight important facts that cannot be disputed under any reasonable assumptions. It has the potential to become a standard reference for both academic researchers and quantitatively trained practitioners. Eckhard Platen, Professor of Quantitative Finance, University of Technology Sydney, Australia This book should be read by both academics and practitioners alike. The former will find intellectually rigorous discussions and innovative solutions. The latter may find a few of the concepts a bit challenging. Yet, theory and technology are there to help simplify the work of those who worry about what time it is rather than how to make a watch--- but they do need a watch. Jean Brunel, Founder of Brunel Associates and Editor of The Journal of Wealth Management
The book presents applications of stochastic calculus to derivative security pricing and interest rate modelling. By focusing more on the financial intuition of the applications rather than the mathematical formalities, the book provides the essential knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts of stochastic finance, and how to implement them to develop pricing models for derivatives as well as to model spot and forward interest rates. Furthermore an extensive overview of the associated literature is presented and its relevance and applicability are discussed. Most of the key concepts are covered including Ito’s Lemma, martingales, Girsanov’s theorem, Brownian motion, jump processes, stochastic volatility, American feature and binomial trees. The book is beneficial to higher-degree research students, academics and practitioners as it provides the elementary theoretical tools to apply the techniques of stochastic finance in research or industrial problems in the field.
This book presents the latest trends, methods and results in nonlinear dynamics with a special focus on oligopolies. It contains a number of technical appendices that summarize techniques of global dynamics not easily accessible elsewhere.
This book represents the second of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. In this second volume the authors present a detailed analysis and comparison of two competing types of approaches to Keynesian macroeconomics, one that integrates goods, labour and financial markets, and another from the perspective of a conventional type of LM-analysis or interest-rate policy of the central bank. The authors employ rigorous dynamic macro-models of a descriptive and applicable nature, which will be of interest to all macroeconomists who use formal model-building in their investigations. The research in this book with its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. The main conclusion of the work is that policy makers need to reconsider Keynesian ideas, but in the modern form in which they are expressed in this volume. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics will be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. This book will also engage central bankers and macroeconomic policy makers.
This book is a companion volume to «The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth. Macro Foundations» by Chiarella & Flaschel, CUP 2000. It describes the computer package, Simulating Nonlinear Dynamics, designed to simulate the various high order macrodynamic models of that book. The package is quite general and can be applied to any well-defined continuous and discrete time dynamical system. One feature of the package is a set of powerful interactive graphical facilities. The first part of the book outlines the philosophy and mode of use ot the package, the second part provides an extensive set of applications to the macrodynamic models referred to in the title. The package is downloadable from http: //www.business.uts.edu.au./finance/staff/carl.html.
In the first part of this book, we treat interacting and small open economies. We do this from an historical perspective, starting from the Classical model of the gold standard and the specie-flow mechanism and aim to show there that the Dornbusch IS-LM-PC approach, with or without rational expectations, can still be considered as a (if not the) core contribution to contemporaneous open economy macrodynamics, also on the level of structural macroeconometric model building. In the second part we then extend this analysis to the incorporation of more disequilibrium on the real markets, prominent further feedback channels of the macrodynamic literature and integrated macromodel building. We start from the closed economy, consider large open economies in a fixed exchange rate system, small open economies subject to high capital mobility, and finally two large interacting economies like the USA and Euroland. Our macrofounded approach extends and integrates non-market clearing traditions to macrodynamics and can be usefully compared with the New Keynesian approaches which are generally rigorously microfounded, but often much more limited in scope in capturing full market and agent interactions.
Building on The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth by Chiarella and Flaschel (2000), this book is a key contribution to business cycle theory, setting out a disequilibrium approach with gradual adjustments of the key macroeconomic variables. Its analytic study of a deterministic model of economic activity, inflation and income distribution integrates elements in the tradition of Keynes, Metzler and Goodwin (KMG). After a qualitative analysis of the basic feedback mechanisms, the authors calibrate the KMG model to the stylized facts of the business cycle in the U.S. economy, and then undertake a detailed numerical investigation of the local and global dynamics generated by the model. Finally, topical issues in monetary policy are studied in small macromodels as well as for the KMG model by incorporating an estimated Taylor-type interest rate reaction function. The stability features of this enhanced model are also compared to those of the original KMG model.
This book investigates the interaction of effective goods demand with the wage-price spiral, and the impact of monetary policy on financial and the real markets from a Keynesian perspective. Endogenous business fluctuations are studied in the context of long-run distributive cycles in an advanced, rigorously formulated and quantitative setup. The material is developed by way of self-contained chapters on three levels of generality, an advanced textbook level, a research-oriented applied level and on a third level that shows how the interaction of real with financial markets has to be modelled from a truly integrative Keynesian perspective. Monetary Macrodynamics shows that the balanced growth path of a capitalist economy is unlikely to be attracting and that the cumulative forces that surround it are controlled in the large by changes in the behavioural factors that drive the wage-price spiral and the financial markets. Such behavioural changes can in fact be observed in actual economies in the interaction of demand-driven business fluctuations with supply-driven wage and price dynamics as they originate from the conflict over income distribution between capital and labour. The book is a detailed critique of US mainstream macroeconomics and uses rigorous dynamic macro-models of a descriptive and applicable nature. It will be of particular relevance to postgraduate students and researchers interested in disequilibrium processes, real wage feedback channels, financial markets and portfolio choice, financial accelerator mechanisms and monetary policy.
This book represents the second of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and offers a detailed analysis and comparison of two competing types of approaches to Keynesian macroeconomics.
This book represents the first of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. It questions in a radical way the evolution of Keynesian macroeconomics after World War II and focuses on the limitations of the traditional Keynesian approach until it fell apart in the early 1970s, as well as the inadequacy of the new consensus in macroeconomics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. Professors Chiarella, Flaschel and Semmler investigate basic methodological issues, the pitfalls of the Rational Expectations School, important feedback channels in the tradition of Tobin’s work, and theories of the wage-price spiral and the evidences for them. The book uses primarily partial approaches, the integration of which will be the subject of subsequent volumes. With its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms, the research in this book provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics should be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism.
This book represents the third of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. This book offers a full treatment of the interlinkages between the real and the financial markets, including an analysis of banking, credit, and endogenous money and asset markets. It remains critical of quite frequently used conventional macro models that have dropped the tradition of studying the macroeconomic feedback channels, well-known in the history of macroeconomics. Those feedback mechanisms are known to have the potential for instabilities with respect to real markets, price dynamics and financial markets. In this volume a particular emphasis is given to the financial-real interaction. The research in this book with its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. The main conclusion of the work is that policy makers need to reconsider Keynesian ideas, but in the modern form in which they are expressed in this volume. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics will be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. This book will also engage central bankers and macroeconomic policy makers.
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