The state remains as important to Russia's prospects as ever. This is so not only because, as in any society, an effectively functioning state administration is necessary to the proper functioning of a complex economy and legal system, but also because, in Russian circumstances, factors of economic geography tend to increase costs of production compared to the rest of the world. These mutually reinforcing factors include: the extreme severity of the climate, the immense distances to be covered, the dislocation between (European) population centers and (Siberian) natural resource centers, and the inevitable predominance of relatively costly land transportation over sea-borne transportation. As a result, it is questionable whether Russia can exist as a world civilization under predominantly liberal economic circumstances: in a unified liberal global capital market, large-scale private direct capital investment will not be directed to massive, outdoor infrastructure projects typical of state investment in the Soviet period.
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There are two typical views of energy security and oil crisis, with distinct analytical approaches and policy recommendations, either politics or economics. The geopolitical approach links imports to vulnerability or at least influence, and maintains that reduced oil imports improve security. One of its major weaknesses is the focus on petroleum trade balances among regions and countries as the critical variable, ignoring the fact that oil is a fungible commodity. If necessary, almost any amount of crude oil an be replaced fairly quickly in the event of a single-nation embargo. Economics often directly contradict the geopolitical view, presuming that all trade is done for money, and that specific trade disruptions are irrelevant because oil is a fungible commodity and any disruptions will be resolved through markets. Energy security, according to this view, need only concern itself with the ability of the market to allocate supply efficiently during a disruption. Although consumers often treat short-term price fluctuations as crises, they really represent normal cyclical behavior for a cartelized commodity. Oil crisis are political events, but the primary damage is economic, through the mechanism of oil price chance. Even when supply and consumption are relatively balanced, hoarding can create or exacerbate price increases. A major element that causes hoarding (and price changes in a more general sense) is uncertainty about supply, which is typically worse due to political interference in the market, whether international (as in 1973) or an exogenous event (as in 1979). Future oil crises, while far milder than 1979, can be expected to exceed the experience of 1990 in terms of price increase and related economic damage. Hoarding appears to be the most likely danger, but other elements, including policy mistakes, remain a concern. The passage of time reduces the number of policymakers with experience of oil crises, and raises the likelihood of poor policy choices during future supply disruptions. However, the primary current energy security threat is that of hoarding, give the significant probability of supply disruptions which are just large enough to cause price spikes, and which would be greatly worsened by the wrong inventory behavior. This is pertinent to policy-makers because hoarding is rational behavior during a period of supply uncertainty. Since the political element of supply disruptions creates or magnifies uncertainly about supply and encourages this trend, political intervention to reduce it seems particularly appropriate.
China's Futures cuts through the sometimes confounding and unfounded speculation of international pundits and commentators to provide readers with an important yet overlooked set of complex views concerning China's future: views originating within China itself. Daniel Lynch seeks to answer the simple but rarely asked question: how do China's own leaders and other elite figures assess their country's future? Many Western social scientists, business leaders, journalists, technocrats, analysts, and policymakers convey confident predictions about the future of China's rise. Every day, the business, political, and even entertainment news is filled with stories and commentary not only on what is happening in China now, but also what Western experts confidently think will happen in the future. Typically missing from these accounts is how people of power and influence in China itself imagine their country's developmental course. Yet the assessments of elites in a still super-authoritarian country like China should make a critical difference in what the national trajectory eventually becomes. In China's Futures, Lynch traces the varying possible national trajectories based on how China's own specialists are evaluating their country's current course, and his book is the first to assess the strengths and weaknesses of "predictioneering" in Western social science as applied to China. It does so by examining Chinese debates in five critical issue-areas concerning China's trajectory: the economy, domestic political processes and institutions, communication and the Internet (arrival of the "network society"), foreign policy strategy, and international soft-power (cultural) competition.
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Is the earth's oil supply starting to run out, or is there far more oil than some experts believe? This book points out flaws in the research used to warn of an oil shortfall and predicts that large new reserves of oil are soon to be tapped. In the last decade, oil experts, geologists, and policy makers alike have warned that a peak in oil production around the world was about to be reached and that global economic distress would result when this occurred. But it didn't happen. The "Peak Oil" Scare and the Coming Oil Flood refutes the recent claims that world oil production is nearing a peak and threatening economic disaster by analyzing the methods used by the theory's proponents. Author Michael C. Lynch, former researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), debunks the "Peak Oil" crisis prediction and describes how the next few years will instead see large amounts of new supply that will bring oil prices down and boost the global economy. This book will be invaluable to those involved in the energy industry, including among those fields that are competing with oil, as well as financial institutions for which the price of oil is of critical importance. Lynch uncovers the facts behind the misleading news stories and media coverage on oil production as well as the analytic process that reveals the truth about the global oil supply. General readers will be dismayed to learn how governments have frequently been led astray by seeming logical theories that prove to have no sound basis and will come away with a healthy sense of skepticism about popular economics.
The British horn player Dennis Brain (1921-1957) is commonly described by such statements as "the greatest horn player of the 20th Century," "a genius," and "a legend." He was both a prodigy and popularizer, famously performing a concerto on a garden hose in perfect pitch. On his usual concert instrument his tone was of unsurpassed beauty and clarity, complemented by a flawless technique. The recordings he made with Herbert von Karajan of Mozart's horn concerti are considered the definitive interpretations. Brain enlisted in the English armed forces during World War II for seven years, joining the National Symphony Orchestra in wartime in 1942. After the war he filled the principal horn positions in both the Philharmonia and Royal Philharmonic Orchestras. He later formed his own wind quintet and began conducting. Composers including Benjamin Britten and Paul Hindemith lined up to write music for him. Even fifty years after his tragic death at the age of 36 in an auto accident in 1957, Peter Maxwell Davies was commissioned to write a piece in his honor. Stephen Gamble and William Lynch have conducted numerous interviews with family, friends, and colleagues and uncovered information in the BBC archives and other lesser known sources about recordings that were previously unknown. This volume describes Brain's life and analyzes in depth his musical career. Its appendices of information on performances will appeal to music historians, and its details on Brain's instruments and equipment will be useful to horn players.
This Coloring and Activity Book is a great inspiration for little girls and a reminder that black girls have the ability to achieve and succeed in whatever their hearts desire. These Coloring and Activity Books for African American Children feature Bold images and Creative captions designed to capture the imagination of black kids, as well as, nurture your child's creative abilities through the use of colors and activities. Black Children's Coloring and Activity Books are one of the best opportunities for quality engagement between parent and child
A chronicle of the true-life adventures of highway vigilante Tex Brown covers his numerous gun battles with outlaws, his horseback raid on drug smugglers in Big Bend National Park, and much more. Original.
Cyber Ireland explores, for the first time, the presence and significance of cyberculture in Irish literature. Bringing together such varied themes as Celtic mythology in video games, Joycean hypertexts and virtual reality Irish tourism, the book introduces a new strand of Irish studies for the twenty-first century.
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