After leading the world economy for a century, the United States faces the first real challenge to its supremacy in the rise of China. Is economic (or broader) conflict, well beyond the trade war that has already erupted, inevitable between the world’s two superpowers? Will their clash produce a new economic leadership vacuum akin to the 1930s when Great Britain abandoned its leadership role and a rising United States was unwilling to step in to save the global order? In this sweeping and authoritative analysis of the competition for global economic leadership between China and the United States, C. Fred Bergsten warns of the disastrous consequences of hostile confrontation between these two superpowers. He paints a frightening picture of a world economy adopting Chinese characteristics in which the United States, after Trump abdicated much of its role, engages in a self-defeating attempt to “decouple” from its rival. Drawing on more than 50 years of active participation as a policymaker and close observation as a scholar, Bergsten calls on China to exercise constructive global leadership and on the United States to reject a policy of containment, avoid a new Cold War and instead pursue “conditional competitive cooperation” to work with its allies and China to lead, rather than destroy, the world economy.
What are the key foreign economic policy issues facing the United States in the second half of this decade? How can the administration and Congress meet the economic challenges that lie ahead? This new book analyzes the dramatic importance of the world economy to both the domestic prosperity and overall foreign policy of the United States, describes the new global environment (e.g., the rise of China as a global economic superpower and the completion of European unification) in which US policy must operate, and proposes major US initiatives on a wide range of international economic issues, including correction of the huge current account deficit, new trade negotiations, and energy. Individual chapters by senior staff of the Institute on each of the key topics are included.
Conflicts over currency valuations are a recurrent feature of the modern global economy. To strengthen their international competitiveness, many countries resort to buying foreign currencies to make their exports cheaper and their imports more expensive. In the first decade of the 21st century, for example, China’s currency manipulation practices were so flagrant that they produced a backlash in the United States and other trading partners, prompting threats of retaliation and reactions against trade agreements and globalization more broadly. This book by C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon—two leading experts on trade, investment, and the effects of currency manipulation—is an indispensable guide to a complex and serious problem and what might be done to solve it.
China's emergence as a major international power is perhaps the most important development in world affairs of the 21st century. Now, this book provides an indispensable survey of that country, the world's largest-- a vast land with 1.4 billion people and the world's most dynamic economy. Over the past year, Dr. Bates Gill, C. Fred Bergsten, Nicholas R. Lardy, and Derek Mitchell have led four task forces through a rigorous exercise of investigation and intelligence, compiling and analyzing the authoritative data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy, and national security. Now that material has been shaped into an accessible narrative filled with facts, but written for the general reader. The expert judgements presented in China: The Balance Sheet will inform policymakers in Washintgon, scholars and the business community for years to come.
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