Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history Written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.
Neither southern nor northern, Baltimore has charted its own course through the American experience. The spires of the nation's first cathedral rose into its sky, and the first blood of the Civil War fell on its streets. Here, enslaved Frederick Douglass toiled before fleeing to freedom and Billie Holiday learned to sing. Baltimore's clippers plied the seven seas, while its pioneering railroads opened the prairie West. The city that birthed "The Star-Spangled Banner" also gave us Babe Ruth and the bottle cap. This guide navigates nearly three hundred years of colorful history--from Johns Hopkins's earnest philanthropy to the raucous camp of John Waters and from modest row houses to the marbled mansions of the Gilded Age. Let local authors Brennen Jensen and Tom Chalkley introduce you to Mencken's "ancient and solid" city--]cBack cover.
Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgements and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, wellquantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications. Key Features: This book demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. It examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. It combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. It provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history. It is written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.
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