Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate's Books

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.

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ISBN 10

0309105706

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9780309105705

Strategic Guidance for the National Science Foundation's Support of the Atmospheric Sciences

An Interim Report

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF's Support of the Atmospheric Sciences

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Strategic Guidance for the National Science Foundation's Support of the Atmospheric Sciences

An Interim Report

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF's Support of the Atmospheric Sciences

The National Science Foundation's Division of Atmospheric Sciences (ATM) supports research to develop new understanding of the Earth's atmosphere and how the Sun impacts it. Strategic Guidance for the National Science Foundation's Support of the Atmospheric Sciences: An Interim Report provides preliminary guidance to ATM on its strategy for achieving its goals in the atmospheric sciences, including cutting-edge research, education, and workforce development; service to society; computational and observational objectives; and data management. The book reviews how the atmospheric sciences have evolved over the past several decades and analyzes the strengths and limitations of the various modes of support employed by ATM, such as principal investigator grants, small and large centers, and cooperative agreements to support observing or computational facilities. Based on this preliminary analysis, the book concludes that the current support reflects the current needs of the community. Given the changing research environment for the atmospheric sciences, the book recommends that ATM engage the community in the development of a strategic plan to enable determination of the appropriate balance of activities and modes of support into the future. A strategic planning process will also help ATM plan for large or long-term investments; facilitate appropriate allocation of resources to cross-disciplinary, interagency, and international research efforts; ensure that the United States will continue to be a leader in atmospheric research; and enhance the transparency of the rationale behind ATM decisions.

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104

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309181623

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9780309181624

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product on Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Climate Research Committee,Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product on Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere

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Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product on Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), established in 2002 to coordinate climate and global change research conducted in the United States and to support decision-making on climate-related issues, is producing twenty-one synthesis and assessment reports that address its research, observation, and decision-support needs. The first report, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in coordination with other agencies, focuses on understanding reported differences between independently produced data sets of temperature trends for the surface through the lower stratosphere and comparing these data sets to model simulations. To ensure credibility and quality, NOAA asked the National Research Council to conduct an independent review of the report. The committee concluded that the report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Understanding and Reconciling Differences is a good first draft that covers an appropriate range of issues, but that it could be strengthened in a number of ways.

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030909674X

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9780309096744

The Atmospheric Sciences

Entering the Twenty-First Century

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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The Atmospheric Sciences

Entering the Twenty-First Century

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisionsâ€"what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplinesâ€"physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate changeâ€"and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.

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382

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309174295

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9780309174299

Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice

Challenges and Strategies

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Polar Research Board,Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal Prediction

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Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice

Challenges and Strategies

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Polar Research Board,Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal Prediction

Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.

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0309265266

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9780309265263

A Review of the Environmental Protection Agency's Science to Achieve Results Research Program

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on the Review of Environmental Protection Agency's Science to Achieve Results Research Grants Program

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A Review of the Environmental Protection Agency's Science to Achieve Results Research Program

Environmental research has driven landmark improvements that led to the protection of human and ecosystem health. Recognizing the value of knowledge generated by environmental research and the ingenuity within academic and nonprofit institutions, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) created a program known as Science to Achieve Results, or STAR, in 1995. STAR is EPA's primary competitive extramural grants program. A Review of the Environmental Protection Agency's Science to Achieve Results Research Program assesses the program's scientific merit, public benefits, and overall contributions in the context of other relevant research and recommends ways to enhance those aspects of the program. This report also considers the conclusions and recommendations of a prior National Research Council review of the STAR program (2003), the STAR program's research priorities in light of the nation's environmental challenges, and the effects of recent STAR funding trends on obtaining scientific information needed to protect public health and the environment.

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114

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309458579

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9780309458573

For Greener Skies

Reducing Environmental Impacts of Aviation

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board,Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Environmental Compatibility

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For Greener Skies

Reducing Environmental Impacts of Aviation

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board,Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Environmental Compatibility

Each new generation of commercial aircraft produces less noise and fewer emissions per passenger-kilometer (or ton-kilometer of cargo) than the previous generation. However, the demand for air transportation services grows so quickly that total aircraft noise and emissions continue to increase. Meanwhile, federal, state, and local noise and air quality standards in the United States and overseas have become more stringent. It is becoming more difficult to reconcile public demand for inexpensive, easily accessible air transportation services with concurrent desires to reduce noise, improve local air quality, and protect the global environment against climate change and depletion of stratospheric ozone. This situation calls for federal leadership and strong action from industry and government. U.S. government, industry, and universities conduct research and develop technology that could help reduce aircraft noise and emissions-but only if the results are used to improve operational systems or standards. For example, the (now terminated) Advanced Subsonic Technology Program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) generally brought new technology only to the point where a system, subsystem model, or prototype was demonstrated or could be validated in a relevant environment. Completing the maturation process-by fielding affordable, proven, commercially available systems for installation on new or modified aircraft-was left to industry and generally took place only if industry had an economic or regulatory incentive to make the necessary investment. In response to this situation, the Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, and the Environmental Protection Agency, asked the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Research Council to recommend research strategies and approaches that would further efforts to mitigate the environmental effects (i.e., noise and emissions) of aviation. The statement of task required the Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Environmental Compatibility to assess whether existing research policies and programs are likely to foster the technological improvements needed to ensure that environmental constraints do not become a significant barrier to growth of the aviation sector.

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0309169631

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9780309169639

Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration

A Research Agenda

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources,Board on Energy and Environmental Systems,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a Research Agenda for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration

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Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration

A Research Agenda

To achieve goals for climate and economic growth, "negative emissions technologies" (NETs) that remove and sequester carbon dioxide from the air will need to play a significant role in mitigating climate change. Unlike carbon capture and storage technologies that remove carbon dioxide emissions directly from large point sources such as coal power plants, NETs remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or enhance natural carbon sinks. Storing the carbon dioxide from NETs has the same impact on the atmosphere and climate as simultaneously preventing an equal amount of carbon dioxide from being emitted. Recent analyses found that deploying NETs may be less expensive and less disruptive than reducing some emissions, such as a substantial portion of agricultural and land-use emissions and some transportation emissions. In 2015, the National Academies published Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, which described and initially assessed NETs and sequestration technologies. This report acknowledged the relative paucity of research on NETs and recommended development of a research agenda that covers all aspects of NETs from fundamental science to full-scale deployment. To address this need, Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda assesses the benefits, risks, and "sustainable scale potential" for NETs and sequestration. This report also defines the essential components of a research and development program, including its estimated costs and potential impact.

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511

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309484529

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9780309484527

Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington

Past, Present, and Future

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Sea Level Rise in California, Oregon, and Washington

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Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington

Past, Present, and Future

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Sea Level Rise in California, Oregon, and Washington

Tide gauges show that global sea level has risen about 7 inches during the 20th century, and recent satellite data show that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating. As Earth warms, sea levels are rising mainly because ocean water expands as it warms; and water from melting glaciers and ice sheets is flowing into the ocean. Sea-level rise poses enormous risks to the valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands that line much of the 1,600 mile shoreline of California, Oregon, and Washington. As those states seek to incorporate projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning, they asked the National Research Council to make independent projections of sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account regional factors that affect sea level. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future explains that sea level along the U.S. west coast is affected by a number of factors. These include: climate patterns such as the El Niño, effects from the melting of modern and ancient ice sheets, and geologic processes, such as plate tectonics. Regional projections for California, Oregon, and Washington show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections. However, projections are lower north of Cape Mendocino because the land is being pushed upward as the ocean plate moves under the continental plate along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. However, an earthquake magnitude 8 or larger, which occurs in the region every few hundred to 1,000 years, would cause the land to drop and sea level to suddenly rise.

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274

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309255945

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9780309255943

The United States Antarctic Research Report to the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)

Number 32 - 1990

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Polar Research Board

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The United States Antarctic Research Report to the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)

Number 32 - 1990

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Polar Research Board

Many nations conduct research and engage in other scientific activities on our frozen continentâ€"Antarctica. Each year the U.S. National Committee for the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) compiles a book that includes these nations' reports of scientific pursuits undertaken by their citizens in Antarctica during the previous austral summer and of planned activities for the next season. This book details the activities that occurred in 1990 and is of particular value to policymakers and scientists throughout the world who are planning Antarctic programs.

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104

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309046262

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9780309046268

Assessment of Mission Size Trade-offs for NASA's Earth and Space Science Missions

By: National Research Council,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Space Studies Board,Ad Hoc Committee on the Assessment of Mission Size Trade-offs for Earth and Space Science Missions

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Assessment of Mission Size Trade-offs for NASA's Earth and Space Science Missions

Assessment of Mission Size Trade-offs for NASA's Earth and Space Science Missions addresses fundamental issues of mission architecture in the nation's scientific space program and responds to the FY99 Senate conference report, which requested that NASA commission a study to assess the strengths and weaknesses of small, medium, and large missions. This report evaluates the general strengths and weaknesses of small, medium, and large missions in terms of their potential scientific productivity, responsiveness to evolving opportunities, ability to take advantage of technological progress, and other factors that may be identified during the study; identifies which elements of the SSB and NASA science strategies will require medium or large missions to accomplish high-priority science objectives; and recommends general principles or criteria for evaluating the mix of mission sizes in Earth and space science programs. Assessment of Mission Size Trade-offs for NASA's Earth and Space Science Missions considers not only scientific, technological, and cost trade-offs, but also institutional and structural issues pertaining to the vigor of the research community, government-industry university partnerships, graduate student training, and the like.

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103

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ISBN 10

0309069769

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9780309069762

Thriving on Our Changing Planet

A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on the Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space

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Thriving on Our Changing Planet

A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.

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717

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309467578

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9780309467575

Global Environmental Change

Research Pathways for the Next Decade

By: National Research Council,Policy Division,Board on Sustainable Development,Committee on Global Change Research

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Global Environmental Change

Research Pathways for the Next Decade

By: National Research Council,Policy Division,Board on Sustainable Development,Committee on Global Change Research

How can we understand and rise to the environmental challenges of global change? One clear answer is to understand the science of global change, not solely in terms of the processes that control changes in climate and the composition of the atmosphere, but in how ecosystems and human society interact with these changes. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a number of such research effortsâ€"supported by computer and satellite technologyâ€"have been launched. Yet many opportunities for integration remain unexploited, and many fundamental questions remain about the earth's capacity to support a growing human population. This volume encourages a renewed commitment to understanding global change and sets a direction for research in the decade ahead. Through case studies the book explores what can be learned from the lessons of the past 20 years and what are the outstanding scientific questions. Highlights include: Research imperatives and strategies for investigators in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate, ecosystem studies, and human dimensions of global change. The context of climate change, including lessons to be gleaned from paleoclimatology. Human responses toâ€"and forcing ofâ€"projected global change. This book offers a comprehensive overview of global change research to date and provides a framework for answering urgent questions.

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621

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309174325

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9780309174329

Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Water Science and Technology Board,Committee on Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences

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Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences

Hydrologyâ€"the science of waterâ€"is central to our understanding of the global environment and its many problems. Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences explains how the science of water historically has played second fiddle to its applications and how we now must turn to the hydrologic sciences to solve some of the emerging problems. This first book of its kind presents a blueprint for establishing hydrologic science among the geosciences. Informative and well-illustrated chapters explore what we know about the forces that drive the global water system, highlighting promising research topics in hydrology's major subfields. The book offers specific recommendations for improving hydrologic education, from kindergarten through graduate school. In addition, a chapter on the basics of the science is interesting for the scientist and understandable to the lay reader. This readable volume is enhanced by a series of brief biographical sketches of past leaders in the field and fascinating vignettes on important applied problems, from the relevance of hydrology to radioactive waste disposal to the study of ancient water flows on Mars. The volume concludes with a report on current research funding and an outline of strategies for scientists and professional societies to advance the field. Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences is indispensable to policymakers in science and education, research managers in geoscience programs, researchers, educators, graduate students, and future hydrologists.

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367

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309042445

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9780309042444

Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space

A Value Framework

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on a Framework for Analyzing the Needs for Continuity of NASA-Sustained Remote Sensing Observations of the Earth from Space

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Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space

A Value Framework

NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) conducts a wide range of satellite and suborbital missions to observe Earth's land surface and interior, biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and oceans as part of a program to improve understanding of Earth as an integrated system. Earth observations provide the foundation for critical scientific advances and environmental data products derived from these observations are used in resource management and for an extraordinary range of societal applications including weather forecasts, climate projections, sea level change, water management, disease early warning, agricultural production, and the response to natural disasters. As the complexity of societal infrastructure and its vulnerability to environmental disruption increases, the demands for deeper scientific insights and more actionable information continue to rise. To serve these demands, NASA's ESD is challenged with optimizing the partitioning of its finite resources among measurements intended for exploring new science frontiers, carefully characterizing long-term changes in the Earth system, and supporting ongoing societal applications. This challenge is most acute in the decisions the Division makes between supporting measurement continuity of data streams that are critical components of Earth science research programs and the development of new measurement capabilities. This report seeks to establish a more quantitative understanding of the need for measurement continuity and the consequences of measurement gaps. Continuity of NASA's Earth's Observations presents a framework to assist NASA's ESD in their determinations of when a measurement or dataset should be collected for durations longer than the typical lifetimes of single satellite missions.

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176

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309377463

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9780309377461

Earth Science and Applications from Space

National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future

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Earth Science and Applications from Space

National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond

Natural and human-induced changes in Earth's interior, land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans affect all aspects of life. Understanding these changes requires a range of observations acquired from land-, sea-, air-, and space-based platforms. To assist NASA, NOAA, and USGS in developing these tools, the NRC was asked to carry out a "decadal strategy" survey of Earth science and applications from space that would develop the key scientific questions on which to focus Earth and environmental observations in the period 2005-2015 and beyond, and present a prioritized list of space programs, missions, and supporting activities to address these questions. This report presents a vision for the Earth science program; an analysis of the existing Earth Observing System and recommendations to help restore its capabilities; an assessment of and recommendations for new observations and missions for the next decade; an examination of and recommendations for effective application of those observations; and an analysis of how best to sustain that observation and applications system.

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460

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309103878

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9780309103879

A Framework for K-12 Science Education

Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Science Education,Committee on a Conceptual Framework for New K-12 Science Education Standards

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A Framework for K-12 Science Education

Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Science Education,Committee on a Conceptual Framework for New K-12 Science Education Standards

Science, engineering, and technology permeate nearly every facet of modern life and hold the key to solving many of humanity's most pressing current and future challenges. The United States' position in the global economy is declining, in part because U.S. workers lack fundamental knowledge in these fields. To address the critical issues of U.S. competitiveness and to better prepare the workforce, A Framework for K-12 Science Education proposes a new approach to K-12 science education that will capture students' interest and provide them with the necessary foundational knowledge in the field. A Framework for K-12 Science Education outlines a broad set of expectations for students in science and engineering in grades K-12. These expectations will inform the development of new standards for K-12 science education and, subsequently, revisions to curriculum, instruction, assessment, and professional development for educators. This book identifies three dimensions that convey the core ideas and practices around which science and engineering education in these grades should be built. These three dimensions are: crosscutting concepts that unify the study of science through their common application across science and engineering; scientific and engineering practices; and disciplinary core ideas in the physical sciences, life sciences, and earth and space sciences and for engineering, technology, and the applications of science. The overarching goal is for all high school graduates to have sufficient knowledge of science and engineering to engage in public discussions on science-related issues, be careful consumers of scientific and technical information, and enter the careers of their choice. A Framework for K-12 Science Education is the first step in a process that can inform state-level decisions and achieve a research-grounded basis for improving science instruction and learning across the country. The book will guide standards developers, teachers, curriculum designers, assessment developers, state and district science administrators, and educators who teach science in informal environments.

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400

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309217423

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9780309217422

Extending the Effective Lifetimes of Earth Observing Research Missions

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on Extending the Effective Lifetimes of Earth Observing Research Missions

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Extending the Effective Lifetimes of Earth Observing Research Missions

By: National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Space Studies Board,Committee on Extending the Effective Lifetimes of Earth Observing Research Missions

While NASA Earth Science missions are planned on the basis of a specified lifetime, often they are able to function beyond the end of that period. Until recently NASA had no formal mechanism for determining whether those missions should be extended or whether the resources necessary for the extension should be applied to new missions. In August 2004, when NASA merged Earth and space sciences, the agency began using the Science Review process to make those extension determinations. NASA had asked the NRC to assess extension review processes, and after the merger, this study focused on the Science Review process. This report presents an assessment of that process and provides recommendations for adapting it to Earth Science missions.

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National Academies Press

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0309182085

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9780309182089

A Strategy for Active Remote Sensing Amid Increased Demand for Radio Spectrum

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Physics and Astronomy,Committee on a Survey of the Active Sensing Uses of the Radio Spectrum

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A Strategy for Active Remote Sensing Amid Increased Demand for Radio Spectrum

Active remote sensing is the principal tool used to study and to predict short- and long-term changes in the environment of Earth - the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surfaces - as well as the near space environment of Earth. All of these measurements are essential to understanding terrestrial weather, climate change, space weather hazards, and threats from asteroids. Active remote sensing measurements are of inestimable benefit to society, as we pursue the development of a technological civilization that is economically viable, and seek to maintain the quality of our life. A Strategy for Active Remote Sensing Amid Increased Demand for Spectrum describes the threats, both current and future, to the effective use of the electromagnetic spectrum required for active remote sensing. This report offers specific recommendations for protecting and making effective use of the spectrum required for active remote sensing.

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254

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309373085

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9780309373081

The Future of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observing, Understanding, and Modeling

Proceedings of a Workshop

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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The Future of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observing, Understanding, and Modeling

Proceedings of a Workshop

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Improved observations of the atmospheric boundary layer (BL) and its interactions with the ocean, land, and ice surfaces have great potential to advance science on a number of fronts, from improving forecasts of severe storms and air quality to constraining estimates of trace gas emissions and transport. Understanding the BL is a crucial component of model advancements, and increased societal demands for extended weather impact forecasts (from hours to months and beyond) highlight the need to advance Earth system modeling and prediction. New observing technologies and approaches (including in situ and ground-based, airborne, and satellite remote sensing) have the potential to radically increase the density of observations and allow new types of variables to be measured within the BL, which will have broad scientific and societal benefits. In October 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to explore the future of BL observations and their role in improving modeling and forecasting capabilities. Workshop participants discussed the science and applications drivers for BL observation, emerging technology to improve observation capabilities, and strategies for the future. This publication summarizes presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309477239

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9780309477239

Landscapes on the Edge

New Horizons for Research on Earth's Surface

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Challenges and Opportunities in Earth Surface Processes

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Landscapes on the Edge

New Horizons for Research on Earth's Surface

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Challenges and Opportunities in Earth Surface Processes

During geologic spans of time, Earth's shifting tectonic plates, atmosphere, freezing water, thawing ice, flowing rivers, and evolving life have shaped Earth's surface features. The resulting hills, mountains, valleys, and plains shelter ecosystems that interact with all life and provide a record of Earth surface processes that extend back through Earth's history. Despite rapidly growing scientific knowledge of Earth surface interactions, and the increasing availability of new monitoring technologies, there is still little understanding of how these processes generate and degrade landscapes. Landscapes on the Edge identifies nine grand challenges in this emerging field of study and proposes four high-priority research initiatives. The book poses questions about how our planet's past can tell us about its future, how landscapes record climate and tectonics, and how Earth surface science can contribute to developing a sustainable living surface for future generations.

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180

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309140242

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9780309140249

Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

By: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on Analytical Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

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Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society, and for the vast majority of people that electricity is obtained from large, interconnected power grids. However, the grid that was developed in the 20th century, and the incremental improvements made since then, including its underlying analytic foundations, is no longer adequate to completely meet the needs of the 21st century. The next-generation electric grid must be more flexible and resilient. While fossil fuels will have their place for decades to come, the grid of the future will need to accommodate a wider mix of more intermittent generating sources such as wind and distributed solar photovoltaics. Achieving this grid of the future will require effort on several fronts. There is a need for continued shorter-term engineering research and development, building on the existing analytic foundations for the grid. But there is also a need for more fundamental research to expand these analytic foundations. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid provide guidance on the longer-term critical areas for research in mathematical and computational sciences that is needed for the next-generation grid. It offers recommendations that are designed to help direct future research as the grid evolves and to give the nation's research and development infrastructure the tools it needs to effectively develop, test, and use this research.

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162

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309392314

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9780309392310

Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information

A Workshop Summary

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information

A Workshop Summary

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

The report explores how best to communicate weather and climate information by presenting five case studies, selected to illustrate a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting climate change.

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136

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309168600

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9780309168601

The Role of Small Satellites in NASA and NOAA Earth Observation Programs

By: National Research Council,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Space Studies Board,Committee on Earth Studies

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The Role of Small Satellites in NASA and NOAA Earth Observation Programs

By: National Research Council,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Space Studies Board,Committee on Earth Studies

Remote observations of Earth from space serve an extraordinarily broad range of purposes, resulting in extraordinary demands on those at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and elsewhere who must decide how to execute them. In research, Earth observations promise large volumes of data to a variety of disciplines with differing needs for measurement type, simultaneity, continuity, and long-term instrument stability. Operational needs, such as weather forecasting, add a distinct set of requirements for continual and highly reliable monitoring of global conditions. The Role of Small Satellites in NASA and NOAA Earth Observation Programs confronts these diverse requirements and assesses how they might be met by small satellites. In the past, the preferred architecture for most NASA and NOAA missions was a single large spacecraft platform containing a sophisticated suite of instruments. But the recognition in other areas of space research that cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and robustness may be enhanced by using small spacecraft has raised questions about this philosophy of Earth observation. For example, NASA has already abandoned its original plan for a follow-on series of major platforms in its Earth Observing System. This study finds that small spacecraft can play an important role in Earth observation programs, providing to this field some of the expected benefits that are normally associated with such programs, such as rapid development and lower individual mission cost. It also identifies some of the programmatic and technical challenges associated with a mission composed of small spacecraft, as well as reasons why more traditional, larger platforms might still be preferred. The reasonable conclusion is that a systems-level examination is required to determine the optimum architecture for a given scientific and/or operational objective. The implied new challenge is for NASA and NOAA to find intra- and interagency planning mechanisms that can achieve the most appropriate and cost-effective balance among their various requirements.

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104

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309069823

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9780309069823

Critical Infrastructure for Ocean Research and Societal Needs in 2030

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on an Ocean Infrastructure Strategy for U.S. Ocean Research in 2030

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Critical Infrastructure for Ocean Research and Societal Needs in 2030

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on an Ocean Infrastructure Strategy for U.S. Ocean Research in 2030

The United States has jurisdiction over 3.4 million square miles of ocean in its exclusive economic zone, a size exceeding the combined land area of the 50 states. This expansive marine area represents a prime national domain for activities such as maritime transportation, national security, energy and mineral extraction, fisheries and aquaculture, and tourism and recreation. However, it also carries with it the threat of damaging and outbreaks of waterborne pathogens. The 2010 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami are vivid reminders that ocean activities and processes have direct human implications both nationally and worldwide, understanding of the ocean system is still incomplete, and ocean research infrastructure is needed to support both fundamental research and societal priorities. Given current struggles to maintain, operate, and upgrade major infrastructure elements while maintaining a robust research portfolio, a strategic plan is needed for future investments to ensure that new facilities provide the greatest value, least redundancy, and highest efficiency in terms of operation and flexibility to incorporate new technological advances. Critical Infrastructure for Ocean Research and Societal Needs in 2030 identifies major research questions anticipated to be at the forefront of ocean science in 2030 based on national and international assessments, input from the worldwide scientific community, and ongoing research planning activities. This report defines categories of infrastructure that should be included in planning for the nation's ocean research infrastructure of 2030 and that will be required to answer the major research questions of the future. Critical Infrastructure for Ocean Research and Societal Needs in 2030 provides advice on the criteria and processes that could be used to set priorities for the development of new ocean infrastructure or replacement of existing facilities. In addition, this report recommends ways in which the federal agencies can maximize the value of investments in ocean infrastructure.

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National Academies Press

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030918603X

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9780309186032

Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World

An Assessment of U.S. Needs

By: National Research Council,Transportation Research Board,Marine Board,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Polar Research Board,Committee on the Assessment of U.S. Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Roles and Future Needs

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Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World

An Assessment of U.S. Needs

The United States has enduring national and strategic interests in the polar regions, including citizens living above the Arctic circle and three year-round scientific stations in the Antarctic. Polar icebreaking ships are needed to access both regions. Over the past several decades, the U.S. government has supported a fleet of four icebreakersâ€"three multi-mission U.S. Coast Guard ships (the POLAR SEA, POLAR STAR, and HEALY) and the National Science Foundation's PALMER, which is dedicated solely to scientific research. Today, the POLAR STAR and the POLAR SEA are at the end of their service lives, and a lack of funds and no plans for an extension of the program has put U.S. icebreaking capability at risk. This report concludes that the United States should continue to support its interests in the Arctic and Antarctic for multiple missions, including maintaining leadership in polar science. The report recommends that the United States immediately program, budget, design, and construct two new polar icebreakers to be operated by the U.S. Coast Guard. The POLAR SEA should remain mission capable and the POLAR STAR should remain available for reactivation until the new polar icebreakers enter service. The U.S. Coast Guard should be provided sufficient operations and maintenance budget to support an increased, regular, and influential presence in the Arctic, with support from other agencies. The report also calls for a Presidential Decision Directive to clearly align agency responsibilities and budgetary authorities.

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135

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309103215

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9780309103213

A Climate Services Vision

First Steps Toward the Future

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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A Climate Services Vision

First Steps Toward the Future

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

A Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future describes the types of products that should be provided through a climate service; outlines the roles of the public, private, and academic sectors in a climate service; describe fundamental principles that should be followed in the provision of climate services; and describes potential audiences and providers of climate services.

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0309082560

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9780309082563

When Weather Matters

Science and Services to Meet Critical Societal Needs

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Progress and Priorities of U.S. Weather Research and Research-to-Operations Activities

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When Weather Matters

Science and Services to Meet Critical Societal Needs

The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to realize its prediction potential; as a result, the nation is not mitigating weather impacts to the extent possible. This book represents a sense of the weather community as guided by the discussions of a Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate community workshop held in summer 2009. The book puts forth the committee's judgment on the most pressing high level, weather-focused research challenges and research to operations needs, and makes corresponding recommendations. The book addresses issues including observations, global non-hydrostatic coupled modeling, data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, and quantitative precipitation and hydrologic forecasting. The book also identifies three important, emerging issues-predictions of very high impact weather, urban meteorology, and renewable energy development-not recognized or emphasized in previous studies. Cutting across all of these challenges is a set of socioeconomic issues, whose importance and emphasis-while increasing-has been undervalued and underemphasized in the past and warrants greater recognition and priority today.

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199

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309177022

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9780309177023

Our Common Journey

A Transition Toward Sustainability

By: National Research Council,Policy and Global Affairs,Policy Division,Board on Sustainable Development

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Our Common Journey

A Transition Toward Sustainability

By: National Research Council,Policy and Global Affairs,Policy Division,Board on Sustainable Development

World human population is expected to reach upwards of 9 billion by 2050 and then level off over the next half-century. How can the transition to a stabilizing population also be a transition to sustainability? How can science and technology help to ensure that human needs are met while the planet's environment is nurtured and restored? Our Common Journey examines these momentous questions to draw strategic connections between scientific research, technological development, and societies' efforts to achieve environmentally sustainable improvements in human well being. The book argues that societies should approach sustainable development not as a destination but as an ongoing, adaptive learning process. Speaking to the next two generations, it proposes a strategy for using scientific and technical knowledge to better inform future action in the areas of fertility reduction, urban systems, agricultural production, energy and materials use, ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation, and suggests an approach for building a new research agenda for sustainability science. Our Common Journey documents large-scale historical currents of social and environmental change and reviews methods for "what if" analysis of possible future development pathways and their implications for sustainability. The book also identifies the greatest threats to sustainabilityâ€"in areas such as human settlements, agriculture, industry, and energyâ€"and explores the most promising opportunities for circumventing or mitigating these threats. It goes on to discuss what indicators of change, from children's birth-weights to atmosphere chemistry, will be most useful in monitoring a transition to sustainability.

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380

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309067839

ISBN 13

9780309067836

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