There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
After a crushing breakup, Katie Ross takes a summer job at a hotel in a small town in Colorado that recreates an early twentieth- century theme for its guests. There she falls into character and enjoys the romance of a bygone era. Soon, though, she discovers that the hotel—including the carriage house she lives in—is haunted by a mischievous ghost and threatened by the earth spirit that calls the valley home. Desperate to make things work, Katie forges ahead with her work and meets a wonderful cast of characters from around the hotel, including an enigmatic young man who seems pulled from another time. Their romance blossoms despite some strange occurrences, but soon Katie discovers that not everything is as it seems—or seemed—in the idyllic mountain town. She is forced to make a terrible decision, one whose effects could send ripples through time itself.
After a crushing breakup, Katie Ross takes a summer job at a hotel in a small town in Colorado that recreates an early twentieth- century theme for its guests. There she falls into character and enjoys the romance of a bygone era. Soon, though, she discovers that the hotel—including the carriage house she lives in—is haunted by a mischievous ghost and threatened by the earth spirit that calls the valley home. Desperate to make things work, Katie forges ahead with her work and meets a wonderful cast of characters from around the hotel, including an enigmatic young man who seems pulled from another time. Their romance blossoms despite some strange occurrences, but soon Katie discovers that not everything is as it seems—or seemed—in the idyllic mountain town. She is forced to make a terrible decision, one whose effects could send ripples through time itself.
In 1985, the Kairos Document emerged out of the anti-apartheid struggle as a devastating critique of apartheid and a challenge to the church in that society. This book is a call to discern new moments of crisis, discernment and kairos, and respond with prophetic resistance to global injustice.
After the civil rights and anti-apartheid struggles, are we truly living in post-racial, post-apartheid societies where the word struggle is now out of place? Do we now truly realize that, as President Obama said, the situation for the Palestinian people is "intolerable"? This book argues that this is not so, and asks, "What has Soweto to do with Ferguson, New York with Cape Town, Baltimore with Ramallah?" With South Africa, the United States, and Palestine as the most immediate points of reference, it seeks to explore the global wave of renewed struggles and nonviolent revolutions led largely by young people and the challenges these pose to prophetic theology and the church. It invites the reader to engage in a trans-Atlantic conversation on freedom, justice, peace, and dignity. These struggles for justice reflect the proposal the book discusses: there are pharaohs on both sides of the blood-red waters. Central to this conversation are the issues of faith and struggles for justice; the call for reconciliation--its possibilities and risks; the challenges of and from youth leadership; prophetic resistance; and the resilient, audacious hope without which no struggle has a future. The book argues that these revolutions will only succeed if they are claimed, embraced, and driven by the people.
The spreadsheet has become a ubiquitous engineering tool, and Microsoft Excel is the standard spreadsheet software package. Over the years, Excel has become such a complex program that most engineers understand and use only a tiny part of its power and features. This book is aimed at electronics engineers and technicians in particular, showing them how to best use Excel's features for computations, circuit modeling, graphing, and data analysis as applied to electronics design. Separate chapters cover lookup tables and file I/O, using macros, graphing, controls, using Analysis Toolpak for statistical analysis, databases, and linking into Excel from other sources, such as data from a serial port. The book is basically an engineering cookbook, with each chapter providing tutorial information along with several Excel "recipes" of interest to electronics engineers. The accompanying CD-ROM features ready-to-run, customizable Excel worksheets derived from the book examples, which will be useful tools to add to any electronics engineer's spreadsheet toolbox. Engineers are looking for any and all means to increase their efficiency and add to their "bag of design tricks." Just about every electronics engineer uses Excel but most feel that the program has many more features to offer, if they only knew what they were! The Excel documentation is voluminous and electronics engineers don't have the time to read it all and sift through looking for those features that are directly applicable to their jobs and figure out how to use them. This book does that task for them-pulls out those features that they need to know about and shows them how to make use of them in specific design examples that they can then tailor to their own design needs. *This is the ONLY book to deal with Excel specifically in the electronics field *Distills voluminous and time-consuming Excel documentation down to nitty-gritty explanations of those features that are directly applicable to the electronics engineer's daily job duties *The accompanying CD-ROM provides ready-to-use, fully-customizable worksheets from the book's examples
In this revised edition of their concise, readable, yet wide-ranging book, Greg Berman and Aubrey Fox tackle a question students and scholars of law, criminology, and political science constantly face: what mistakes have led to the problems that pervade the criminal justice system in the United States? The reluctance of criminal justice policymakers to talk openly about failure, the authors argue, has stunted the public conversation about crime in this country and stifled new ideas. It has also contributed to our inability to address such problems as chronic offending in low-income neighborhoods, an overreliance on incarceration, the misuse of pretrial detention, and the high rates of recidivism among parolees. Berman and Fox offer students and policymakers an escape from this fate by writing about failure in the criminal justice system. Their goal is to encourage a more forthright dialogue about criminal justice, one that acknowledges that many new initiatives fail and that no one knows for certain how to reduce crime. For the authors, this is not a source of pessimism, but a call to action. This revised edition is updated with a new foreword by Cyrus R. Vance, Jr., and afterword by Greg Berman.
In 1929, Hollywood mogul William Fox (1879-1952) came close to controlling the entire motion picture industry. His Fox Film Corporation had grown from a $1600 investment into a globe-spanning $300 million empire; he also held patents to the new sound-on-film process. Forced into a series of bitter power struggles, Fox was ultimately toppled from his throne, and the studio bearing his name would merge in 1935 with Darryl F. Zanuck's flourishing 20th Century Pictures. The 25-year lifespan of the Fox Film Corporation, home of such personalities as Theda Bara, Tom Mix, Janet Gaynor and John Ford, is chronicled in this thorough illustrated history. Included are never-before-published financial figures revealing costs and grosses of Fox's biggest successes and failures, and a detailed filmogaphy of the studio's 1100-plus releases, among them What Price Glory?, Seventh Heaven and the Oscar-winning Cavalcade.
Genetic Disorders and the Fetus: Diagnosis, Prevention and Treatment, Seventh Edition is the eagerly awaited new edition of the discipline-leading text that has been at the forefront of diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of fetal genetic disorders for over 36 years. The seventh edition continues the long-established tradition of excellence that has become synonymous with this text. The book builds on the foundations of preconception and prenatal genetic counseling and the original pillars of prenatal diagnosis while also providing authoritative coverage of exciting developments in non-invasive genetic testing and rapidly developing molecular techniques, including microarray analysis and next generation sequencing, that are revolutionizing the field. Chapters are once again authored by internationally recognized authorities in the field of prenatal diagnosis. The editors have added three entirely new chapters to this edition to complement the complete revision of existing content. The three new chapters focus on non-invasive prenatal screening, placental genetics, and the psychology of prenatal and perinatal grief. The broad-ranging coverage and international scope will ensure that the new edition maintains its role as the major repository for information on all aspects of prenatal diagnosis. The editors have brought together an invaluable collection of evidence-based facts bolstered by knowledge and decades of experience in the field. Genetic Disorders and the Fetus: Diagnosis, Prevention and Treatment, 7th Edition is a timely update to this world-leading text.
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.