Anvar Musayev's Books

Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany

By: Sabine Klinger,Anvar Musayev,Jean-Marc Natal,Enzo Weber

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Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany

By: Sabine Klinger,Anvar Musayev,Jean-Marc Natal,Enzo Weber

German wages have not increased very rapidly in the last decade despite strong employment growth and a 5 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate. Our analysis shows that a large part of the decline in unemployment was structural. Micro-founded Phillips curves fit the German data rather well and suggest that relatively low wage growth can be largely attributed to low inflation expectations and low productivity growth. There is no evidence – from either aggregate or micro-level administrative data – that large immigration flows since 2012 have had dampening effects on aggregate wage growth, as complementarity effects offset composition and competition effects.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513521144

ISBN 13

9781513521145

Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe

By: Cristina Batog,Ernesto Crivelli,Ms.Anna Ilyina,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Jaewoo Lee,Anvar Musayev,Iva Petrova,Mr.Alasdair Scott,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Andreas Tudyka,Xin Cindy Xu,Ruifeng Zhang

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Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe

By: Cristina Batog,Ernesto Crivelli,Ms.Anna Ilyina,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Jaewoo Lee,Anvar Musayev,Iva Petrova,Mr.Alasdair Scott,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Andreas Tudyka,Xin Cindy Xu,Ruifeng Zhang

The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.

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119

Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498325718

ISBN 13

9781498325714

How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries

By: Chikako Baba,Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Ms.Enrica Detragiache,Olamide Harrison,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Anvar Musayev,Asghar Shahmoradi

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How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries

By: Chikako Baba,Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Ms.Enrica Detragiache,Olamide Harrison,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Anvar Musayev,Asghar Shahmoradi

Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) – the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend estimated with a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter—is the indicator preferred by the Basel Committee because of its good performance as an early warning of banking crises. However, for a number of European countries this indicator implausibly suggests that credit should go back to its level at the peak of the boom after the credit cycle turns, resulting in large negative gaps that might delay the activation of macroprudential policies. We explore two different approaches—a multivariate filter based on economic theory and a fundamentals-based panel regression. Each approach has pros and cons, but they both provide a useful complement to the BCG in assessing macro-financial vulnerabilities in Europe.

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