This volume provides the first detailed analysis of the trends in U.S. contingency capabilities since the end of the Gulf War, the impact of the Bush administration's "Base Force" policy, and the Clinton administration's "Bottom Up Review" of current U.S. contingency capabilities. It examines U.S. capabilities in the Gulf through the year 2001, the
From grassroots terrorism to the nuclear ambitions of hostile nations, the United States faces increasingly complex threats to its national security. Combating these threats continues to demand a reshaping of the nation's security structure, military forces and defense expenditures. In this study, Anthony Cordesman offers a detailed analysis of critical challenges affecting U.S. national security and how failures in adapting to these challenges have exacerbated the strains on available resources. He systematically identifies the most glaring obstacles to successful national security planning and proposes constructive and practical ways to proceed in the future. Cordesman focuses on ten specific challenges, and each is addressed within the context of the Iraq War, Afghan War, War on Terrorism, and the risk of conflict over the Taiwan Straits. Out of the lessons drawn from these experiences, he examines the future of international coalitions, asymmetric warfare, nation building, and stability operations, and concludes that perhaps the most pressing area for change is the need for accountability among civilian and military policymakers.
Noted Middle East military expert Anthony H. Cordesman details the complex trends that come into play in determining the military balance in a region that has become so critical to world peace. This ready resource provides a wealth of information on military expenditures and major arms systems, as well as qualitative trends, by country and by zone. However, as Cordesman stresses, because the greater Middle East is more a matter of rhetoric than military reality, mere data summarizing trends in 23 different countries is no substitute for a substantive explanation. Using tables, graphs, and charts, this study explores every aspect of the regional military balance with attention to sub-regional balances, internal civil conflicts, and low level border tensions. The Middle East is certainly one of the most militarized areas in the world, and changes in technology, access to weapons of mass destruction, and political instability contribute to a situation that has long been in constant flux. Some of the regional flashpoints covered in this study include the Maghreb (North Africa); the Arab-Israeli conflict (dominated by Israel versus Syria); and the Gulf (divided into those states that view Iran as the primary threat and those who lived in fear of Iraq). Internal conflicts, such as those in Mauritania, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen, increasingly dominate regional tensions. In addition, border conflicts within the region and with neighboring countries could further aggravate the delicate balance.
Asymmetric wars tend to be highly adaptive, and this war is both regional and global in scope. It is also a struggle fought in a context where it may come to interact with other conflicts such as the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian struggle and a possible U.S. effort to drive Saddam Hussein from power. So, while it is easier to draw lessons than to validate them, this study begins that process."--BOOK JACKET.
In April of 2003, a stunned world looked on as the armed forces of the United States and Britain conducted a lightning-fast military campaign against Iraq. Confounding predictions of failure, the Anglo-American victory brought down not just the Iraqi regime, but also much of the conventional wisdom about modern war. But even as U.S. and British forces occupied Basra, Tikrit, and Mosul, the Iraqi nation slipped into anarchy - and new military and security challenges emerged." "In this book, respected military analyst Anthony Cordesman provides the first in-depth examination of the key issues swirling around the most significant U.S. war since Vietnam. Finding answers is essential if we are to understand the United States' awesome power and its place in a new age of international terror and regional conflict. Finding answers is also essential if we are to draw the proper lessons and understand the new challenges of conflict termination, peacemaking, and nation building."--BOOK JACKET.
More than a decade into the “war on terrorism,” much of the political debate in the United States is still fixated on the legacy of 9/11. US politics has a partisan fixation on Benghazi, the Boston Marathon bombing, intelligence intercepts, and Guantanamo. Far too much attention still focuses on “terrorism” at a time the United States faces a much broader range of threats from the instability in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Islamic world. Moreover, much of the US debate ignores the fact that the United States has not actually fought a “war on terrorism” over the last decade, as well as the US failures in using military force and civil aid in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The conclusion of a war typically signals the beginning of a flood of memoirs and instant campaign histories, many presenting the purported, but often dubious lessons of the recent conflict. Cordesman is careful to avoid such pitfalls in this detailed and closely reasoned analysis, and helps us to begin to understand the implications of this dramatic conflict on its own terms. Based on a combination of official and unofficial (but always authoritative) sources, he builds a thorough case for the true lessons of NATO's first battle fought within Europe. After consideration of the historical, major political, and strategic factors that set the stage for the Kosovo campaign, Cordesman critically examines the actual effectiveness of the NATO air campaigns, both in Kosovo and Serbia proper. Operations in this rugged part of Europe were difficult, and compounding the challenges of terrain and weather were the conflicting national agendas within the Allied coalition that seriously hampered focused and decisive action by NATO. Although Milosevic ultimately conceded defeat, all of these factors played an important role in limiting the intensity and shaping the military outcome of the campaign, and the likely political and strategic results were far from certain. Cordesman unflinchingly concludes, that the air campaign over Kosovo exposed deep fault lines within and among the NATO countries and fundamental flaws in the way the West wages war.
With this multivolume study, Anthony H. Cordesman once again proves that he is a leading authority on the affairs of the Middle Eastern states. Cordesman led this comprehensive net assessment of the political, economic, energy, security (both internal and external), and military trends in each of the Gulf states, as well as the power projection cap
Nations around the world are uncertain and anxious about Iran's intentions in the Middle East and the wider global arena. Its current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has made no secret of his opposition to Western society, particularly Israel, and his desire to acquire nuclear weapons. However, as Anthony H. Cordesman and Martin Kleiber point out, Ahmadinejad does not necessarily speak for the Iranian clerical regime, who operate in a cloud of secrecy and also directly control Iran's military. Given the ambiguous nature of Iran's global objectives, this new study focuses on the tangible aspects of Iran's military forces and takes an objective look at the realistic threats that Iran poses to the region and the world. The authors systematically assess each aspect of Iranian military forces from their conventional armies to their asymmetric threat via proxy wars in the region. Much attention in national security debates is paid to Iran's intentions without first understanding its capabilities. Lacking such a fundamental understanding, much of this speculation tends to be wasted and irrelevant to what could actually happen in the event of a conflict. Cordesman and Kleiber's study provides, in meticulous detail, a basis for understanding the realistic threat that Iran poses to the Northern Gulf.
The recent rise in global demand for energy and the resulting spike in energy prices have illustrated just how important Middle Eastern energy exports are. This book, the first on the subject since the hike in energy prices impacted the global energy market, outlines the current facts that shape the ability of Middle Eastern producers to supply energy exports. It explores the possible future causes both of major interruptions in supply, and of failures to maintain and expand export capacity, and, though it does not predict a major energy crisis, it does describe a range of factors that could produce one. The recent rise in global demand for energy and the resulting spike in energy prices have illustrated just how important Middle Eastern energy exports are. This book, the first on the subject since the hike in energy prices impacted the global energy market, outlines current facts that shape the ability of Middle Eastern producers to supply energy exports. It explores the possible future causes both of major interruptions in supply, and failures to maintain and expand export capacity, and, though it does not predict a major energy crisis, it does describe factors that could produce one. Authors Cordesman and Al-Rodhan analyze the plans of each country in the region, compare those plans with the forecasting models of international organizations, and study each country's prospects for stability. They also analyze how importing countries such as the United States, Europe, China, and India are dealing with the changing nature of global dependence upon MENA oil. Offering the most comprehensive data on current energy resources, production capacities estimates, import dependence, and national plans and strategies, The Changing Dynamics of Energy in the Middle East analyzes current energy modeling, and shows how the lack of supply-driven models has had a negative impact on the understanding of policy makers and strategic thinkers. The book concludes its analysis with possible strategic, economic, and demographic scenarios for the Middle East, projecting the impact of each scenario on future energy developments.
Nobody understands the delicate and dangerous balance of power in the Middle East better than Anthony Cordesman. In Perilous Prospects, he supplies the first account of the military and security concerns arising out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the recent assassination of Prime Minister Rabin.Cordesman considers a number of possible
This book provides an in-depth examination of the serious security implications that Iran's nuclear program has on a region that is already plagued by insecurity and conflict. Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Birth of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race? is an expert insider's look at Iran's current and potential ability to wage both conventional and asymmetrical warfare, and the options available for dealing with a nuclear Iran. Are we on the brink of a regional nuclear arms race in the Middle East? In this urgent volume, Anthony Cordesman and Adam Seitz examine how Iran's nuclear ambitions have already altered security policy for the United States, Iran's neighbors, and the international community. Cordesman and Seitz address the full range of issues related to Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, including its emphasis on medium- and long-range missiles, the decline of Iran's conventional military capabilities, and continued Iranian efforts to undercut the spread of democracy in the region.
Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War provides a detailed and current picture of the military capabilities of Israel and Syria, reflecting the changes and lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006 and other recent conflicts. It offers extensive analysis, supported by tables and charts, on the trends in military spending, arms imports and technology transfers, military manpower, weapons, and orders of battle. By going beyond military balance analysis, Cordesman examines the probable nature and results of a future war and how the readiness, capability, tactics, and technology on each side would shape its outcome. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War shows how a dangerous new conflict between both nations would cripple all strides in strategic gains and Israeli-Syrian diplomacy. On the other hand, peace negotiations would offer a safer, more productive relationship. Israel and Syria need to consider the true nature of their military balance and the undermining effect to both nations as well as the costs and risks of any future conflict. Although Syria does retain important options in terms of asymmetric and proxy conflicts, it would fail in its attempt to recapture the Golan. While Israel would almost certainly win a future war, it cannot make gains from acquiring more Syrian territory and a new war would create major problems with its neighbors and in dealing with the Palestinians. The risk of a new Israeli-Syrian conflict is so serious that both sides need to understand the true nature of their military balance, and the costs and risks of any future conflict. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War shows how dangerous a new conflict could be, that neither side can make lasting strategic gains from a future conflict, and that peace negotiations offer a far safer and more productive option. It provides a detailed and current picture of the military capabilities of Israel and Syria, reflecting the changes and lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006 and other recent conflicts. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War provides extensive analysis, supported by tables and charts, on the trends in military spending, arms imports and technology transfers, military manpower, weapons, and orders of battle. By going beyond military balance analysis, Cordesman examines the probable nature and results of a future war and how the readiness, capability, tactics, and technology on each side would shape its outcome.
The Middle Eastern and North African region (MENA) dominates world energy exports today and will likely do so for decades to come, even if world consumers make steady progress in conservation, renewable energy sources, and increases from gas, coal, and nuclear power. The MENA region, however, has been the scene of both internal crises and external conflicts. On several occasions, these crises have affected either the flow of MENA energy exports or the development of energy production and export capacity. The politics, economics, and social dynamics that shape threats to regional stability are complex. Cordesman details the factors behind these diverse forces and outlines current supply levels and future trends, taking each of these variables into consideration. The MENA area includes at least 22 states, with a combined population of nearly 300 million, each with different political, economic, demographic, and security conditions and needs. It is divided into at least four sub-regions including the Maghreb (Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia); the Levant and the Arab-Israeli confrontation states (Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria); the Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman); and the Red Sea states (Yemen, the Sudan, and Somalia). This important guide outlines the forces affecting each sub-region, including supply, demand, and financing, and forecasts the likely impact that different scenarios would have on energy resources under varying world conditions.
The fog of war is inevitably followed by the “fog of analysis.” This has certainly been true of the most important military conflict of the post–Cold War era, the Gulf War between Iraq and the allied coalition led by the United States. A variety of studies of this conflict have appeared, many within just months of the end of hostilities and many with the obvious weaknesses resulting from the rush to publish. Now in this fourth volume of the acclaimed Lessons of Modern War series, military analyst Anthony H. Cordesman, with defense consultant Abraham R. Wagner, has produced what must be considered the definitive study of the Gulf War.Anthony Cordesman draws careful conclusions based on extensive research from a wide variety of sources, including newly declassified documents; official military reports; informal review and commentary by U.S. military services and British, French, Egyptian, and Saudi officers; interviews; and field research in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and southern Iraq as well as Cordesman's own firsthand observations of the unfolding battle for Kuwait in his capacity as military analyst for ABC News and a year of research on the war as fellow at the Wilson Center. Abraham Wagner contributes his unique experience in intelligence and command-and-control issues.The book examines in unprecedented detail the efforts of all the members of the coalition, not just the United States. The authors are careful to distinguish between the general lessons about warfare that can be drawn from the Gulf War and those that are unique to this conflict. Throughout the book, the authors offer enough data to enable the reader to consider alternatives to Cordesman and Wagner's own highly authoritative conclusions.The many lessons presented in this book cover the whole range of political, strategic, tactical, technical, and human elements of this conflict. The authors' analysis is based on the dynamic interaction of all of these factors, not just static bean-counting. The central lesson is that this highly complex web of human and technological developments has resulted in a new “military revolution” of profound significance for the history of modern war. Lessons of Modern War, Volume IV: The Gulf War explodes many myths, offers sometimes controversial conclusions, and is essential reading for anyone concerned about the “revolution in military affairs''; peacekeeping; Gulf and energy security issues; and the new, but still dangerous, world in which we live.
There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the U.S. homeland that do not involve overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the United States. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency, but are emerging as potentially significant issues for future U.S. security. In this comprehensive work, Cordesman argues that new threats require new thinking, and offers a range of recommendations, from expanding the understanding of what constitutes a threat and bolstering Homeland defense measures, to bettering resource allocation and improving intelligence gathering and analysis. No pattern of actual attacks on U.S. territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack might be in the future, what means of attack might be used, or how lethal new forms of attack might be. As a result, there is a major ongoing debate over the seriousness of the threat and how the U.S. government should react. This work is an invaluable contribution to that debate.
Presents definitive, in-depth guide to the political and military capabilities of the key players in the Middle East, including non-state actors such as the Palestinians, and as to the outcome of possible wars.
Iran’s rocket and missile forces serve a wide range of Iranian strategic objectives. These forces range from relatively short-range artillery rockets that support its ground forces and limit the need for close air support to long-range missiles that can reach any target in the region and the development of booster systems that might give Iran the ability to strike at targets throughout Europe and even in the United States. Iran’s forces and systems are steadily evolving. While the lethality of most current systems is limited by a reliance on conventional warheads, poor accuracy, and uncertain reliability, Iran is developing steadily improved guidance systems, attempting to improve the lethality of its conventional warheads, and has at least studied arming its missiles with nuclear warheads.
This book provides an extensive military and strategic analysis of the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, assessing the regional military balance, the internal security and stability of each Gulf nation, the evolution of each nation's forces from 1969 into 1983, and the impact of defense spending and Western and Soviet-bloc arms sales in the region. Comprehensive statistics are provided on arms transfers to each country since 1969 and on the forces each nation is capable of deploying in the Gulf.
With continuing instability in Iraq, the threat of a nuclear Iran, and the ever-present reality of further terrorist attacks within its own borders, Saudi Arabia has been forced to make some hard decisions. The current structure of the Saudi security apparatus is only one pathway to improved security. Economic and demographic threats may well be the hardest hurdles to overcome. What has been accomplished since 2001 and what are the real prospects and implications of further reform? To what extent should the kingdom continue to rely on the US to protect its interests? Cordesman and Obaid argue that it is time to put an end to client and tutorial relations. Saudi Arabia must emerge as a true partner. This will require the creation of effective Saudi forces for both defense and counterterrorism. Saudi Arabia has embarked on a process of political, economic, and social reforms that reflects a growing understanding by the governing members of the royal family, Saudi technocrats, and Saudi businessmen that Saudi Arabia must reform and diversify its economy and must create vast numbers of new jobs for its young and growing population. There is a similar understanding that economic reform must be combined with some level of political and social reform if Saudi Arabia is to remain stable in the face of change. With Gulf security, the war on terrorism, and the security of some sixty percent of the world's oil reserves at stake, the real question is how quickly Saudi Arabia can change and adapt its overall approach to security, and how successful it will be in the process.
Details the establishment of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Examines future prospects of this force by analyzing its strengths and weaknesses, and views these within a broader context of the civil, military, and economic conflict that affects both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
This volume examines the changing economic and internal security challenges faced by the Gulf countries and the problems they face with Iran, Iraq, and other Gulf states. The special military and security needs of Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are analyzed here in detail, as are their growing demographic problems and export pla
Iran today is still struggling with the legacy of its own Islamic revolution, and is deeply divided between the moderates who enjoy broad public support and the conservatives who control the levers of power. The mixed policies that result are reflected in Iran's ambivalent military posture. In recent years, Iran has only conducted a limited build-up of its armed forces and has cut defense spending and arms imports. On the other hand, Iran has developed a carefully focused program that threatens shipping in the lower Gulf and the world's oil exports. It has strengthened its capability for unconventional warfare and continues to be a significant proliferator, setting up indigenous military industries and developing a greater ability to import weapons. In this authoritative analysis of interest to Middle Eastern specialists and military affairs experts alike, Anthony Cordesman concludes that the continuation of Iran's current defensive security posture depends as much on these economic factors as on the outcomes of domestic political rivalries. Iran may eventually limit any military expansion to a necessary defensive strength and set strategic goals for itself that are compatible with the legitimate interests of other nations, or it may choose a more aggressive course. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, argues Cordesman, it does no good to either demonize or excuse Iranian policies. Instead, the United States and other nations with interests in the Middle East and Central Asia need to deal realistically with Iran as a reemerging regional power.
During the last two decades, the infrastructure of the U.S. economy has undergone a fundamental set of changes. It has steadily increased its reliance on its service sector and high-technology economy. The U.S. has come to depend on computers, electronic data storage and transfers, and highly integrated communications networks. The result is the rapid development of a new form of critical infrastructure--and one that is exceedingly vulnerable to a new family of threats, loosely grouped together as information warfare. This detailed volume examines these threats and the evolving U.S. policy response. After examining the dangers posed by information warfare and efforts at threat assessment, Cordesman considers the growing policy response on the part of various federal agencies, state and local governments, and the private sector. The changing nature of the threats is leading these actors to reassess the role they must play in critical infrastructure protection. Government at all levels, industry, and even friendly and neutral foreign governments are learning that an effective response requires coordination in deterrence, defense, and counterattack.
The reality of the Arab-Israeli balance now consists of two subordinate balances: Israel versus Syria and Israel versus the Palestinians. The book analyzes these two balances in detail and their impact on defense planning in each country and on the overall strategic risk to the region as a whole. It covers military developments in each of six states-Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine-and provides an analytical view with charts and tables of how the changing natures of the military and political threats faced by each is impacting its military force readiness and development. The book has the most comprehensive data on past, current, and future military force structure currently available, drawn from the widest range of sources. Responding to the most recent of events in the region, this book is the first to deal with the effects on the Arab-Israeli military balance of the strategic uncertainty created by the Iraqi insurgency and the Iranian nuclear program. It also studies how the Gaza pullout, the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the changing political landscape in Israel, and the threat of nuclear proliferation are having impacts on the Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli peace accords and the prospects for a settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis. The roles of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are analyzed in light of the changing political landscape in both Israel and Palestine. Given the role of Syria in the Palestinian-Israeli affairs, the book also explores the ways that internal instability in Lebanon could escalate into a regional conflict.
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