Andreas Malmendier's Books

Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

Literature Review, Measurement Methods and Empirical Evidence

By: Andreas Müller

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Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

Literature Review, Measurement Methods and Empirical Evidence

By: Andreas Müller

Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: Economic theory normally focuses on rational agents optimizing individual utility. Since the second half of the 20th century, this viewpoint has been enriched by findings from the field of psychology. A new trait of research was created called behavioral economics . It takes into account subjective characteristics such as asymmetric preference and judgment, or limits of rational processing, willpower, and greed. This paper aims to give an overview of two related human traits that have attracted particularly wide interest, namely overconfidence and overoptimism. The two are closely related to each other, and often used synonymously. Broadly speaking, overconfidence results in underestimation of future risks, e.g. the riskiness of future cash flows, whilst overoptimism leads to an overestimation of future positive outcomes, e.g. the future returns of a company. Besides, the paper wants to deduct suggestions for further research, by systematically identifying uncovered topics in existing literature. Usually Alpert and Raiffa are credited with the first discovery of overconfidence. However, the most influential study is probably Russo and Schoemaker. It was published in the Sloan Management Review and communicated the topic to a broader audience for the first time. In particular, it revealed that assumingly rational managers were prone to overconfidence, too. This challenged traditional management doctrines and generated interest in a better understanding of the topic and further research. To exemplify overconfidence, Russo and Schoemaker asked managers to give numerical intervals for ten general-knowledge questions, such that nine out of the ten answers would be correct. On average participants included the correct value within their interval only 5 out of 10 times, i.e. they underestimated potential errors in their estimations. Svenson is probably the most influential source regarding overoptimism. He made the subject intuitively understandable and established a standard measurement method that could be easily used for subsequent research. To give an example of overoptimism: Svenson asked students to compare their driving skills to those of their classmates. Roughly 80% believed they belonged to the top 50%, i.e. they overestimated their abilities. This paper also provides a closer look at the empirical methods normally applied in field studies. Although the phenomena are intuitively understandable, empirical research [...]

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diplom.de

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ISBN 10

3956363035

ISBN 13

9783956363030

Schumpeter's Venture Money

By: Michael Peneder,Andreas Resch

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Schumpeter's Venture Money

By: Michael Peneder,Andreas Resch

Distinctively tying history with theory, political economist Joseph A. Schumpeter reached far back in time to understand what drives economic development and determines its course. Historical and empirical research provided a laboratory for learning. At the same time, he reached for a long-term vision through theoretical inspection and utmost abstraction, seeking to distil a phenomenon's essential nature and function. He believed that good theory can indicate where the economy is headed in the future. Schumpeter's attention to history and theory also informed the plan for this book. Part I trails the historical stream of financial innovations and the scholarly struggle to assimilate them in monetary thought, while Part II focuses on Schumpeter's own monetary theory. Its deliberate reconstruction from scattered sources reveals a strikingly original and still modern conception. Drawing from the detailed study of documents at various archives in Austria, Part III then concentrates on the business history of Schumpeter's failed personal endeavours in banking and as a proto-venture capitalist. Finally, Part IV casts light on the legacy of Schumpeter's monetary ideas on contemporary thought. It depicts how monetary theory initially left them behind, yet has more recently set out to return to his ideas on money, financial innovation, and growth. Overall, a surprisingly coherent picture emerges from the study of Schumpeter's neglected monetary theory, his personal history, and his intellectual legacy on the present day.

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336

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Oxford University Press

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ISBN 10

0192526545

ISBN 13

9780192526540

Hannibal and Me

What History's Greatest Military Strategist Can Teach Us About Success and Failu re

By: Andreas Kluth

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Hannibal and Me

What History's Greatest Military Strategist Can Teach Us About Success and Failu re

By: Andreas Kluth

A dynamic and exciting way to understand success and failure, through the life of Hannibal, one of history's greatest generals. The life of Hannibal, the Carthaginian general who crossed the Alps with his army in 218 B.C.E., is the stuff of legend. And the epic choices he and his opponents made-on the battlefield and elsewhere in life-offer lessons about responding to our victories and our defeats that are as relevant today as they were more than 2,000 years ago. A big new idea book inspired by ancient history, Hannibal and Me explores the truths behind triumph and disaster in our lives by examining the decisions made by Hannibal and others, including Albert Einstein, Eleanor Roosevelt, Steve Jobs, Ernest Shackleton, and Paul Cézanne-men and women who learned from their mistakes. By showing why some people overcome failure and others succumb to it, and why some fall victim to success while others thrive on it, Hannibal and Me demonstrates how to recognize the seeds of success within our own failures and the threats of failure hidden in our successes. The result is a page-turning adventure tale, a compelling human drama, and an insightful guide to understanding behavior. This is essential reading for anyone who seeks to transform misfortune into success at work, at home, and in life.

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392

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Penguin

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ISBN 10

1101554193

ISBN 13

9781101554197

Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

Literature Review, Measurement Methods and Empirical Evidence

By: Andreas Müller

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Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

Literature Review, Measurement Methods and Empirical Evidence

By: Andreas Müller

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N/A

Write a review

Solve jigsaw puzzle

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Publisher

diplom.de

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ISBN 10

3956363035

ISBN 13

9783956363030

Book's by Andreas Malmendier

Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

Schumpeter's Venture Money

Schumpeter's Venture Money

Hannibal and Me

Hannibal and Me

Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior

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