Andrea Presbitero's Books

Monetary Policy in a Developing Country

Loan Applications and Real Effects

By: Charles Abuka,Ronnie K Alinda,Ms.Camelia Minoiu,José-Luis Peydró,Andrea Presbitero

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Monetary Policy in a Developing Country

Loan Applications and Real Effects

By: Charles Abuka,Ronnie K Alinda,Ms.Camelia Minoiu,José-Luis Peydró,Andrea Presbitero

The transmission of monetary policy to credit aggregates and the real economy can be impaired by weaknesses in the contracting environment, shallow financial markets, and a concentrated banking system. We empirically assess the bank lending channel in Uganda during 2010–2014 using a supervisory dataset of loan applications and granted loans. Our analysis focuses on a short period during which the policy rate rose by 1,000 basis points and then came down by 1,200 basis points. We find that an increase in interest rates reduces the supply of bank credit both on the extensive and intensive margins, and there is significant pass-through to retail lending rates. We document a strong bank balance sheet channel, as the lending behavior of banks with high capital and liquidity is different from that of banks with low capital and liquidity. Finally, we show the impact of monetary policy on real activity across districts depends on banking sector conditions. Overall, our results indicate significant real effects of the bank lending channel in developing countries.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513594664

ISBN 13

9781513594668

Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Edward F. Buffie,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Rafael Portillo,Andrea Presbitero,Luis-Felipe Zanna

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Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Edward F. Buffie,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Rafael Portillo,Andrea Presbitero,Luis-Felipe Zanna

We reconsider the macroeconomic implications of public investment efficiency, defined as the ratio between the actual increment to public capital and the amount spent. We show that, in a simple and standard model, increases in public investment spending in inefficient countries do not have a lower impact on growth than in efficient countries, a result confirmed in a simple cross-country regression. This apparently counter-intuitive result, which contrasts with Pritchett (2000) and recent policy analyses, follows directly from the standard assumption that the marginal product of public capital declines with the capital/output ratio. The implication is that efficiency and scarcity of public capital are likely to be inversely related across countries. It follows that both efficiency and the rate of return need to be considered together in assessing the impact of increases in investment, and blanket recommendations against increased public investment spending in inefficient countries need to be reconsidered. Changes in efficiency, in contrast, have direct and potentially powerful impacts on growth: “investing in investing” through structural reforms that increase efficiency, for example, can have very high rates of return.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513589970

ISBN 13

9781513589978

The Effects of Higher Bank Capital Requirements on Credit in Peru

By: Xiang Fang,David Jutrsa,Mr.Maria Soledad Martinez Peria,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Lev Ratnovski,Mr.Felix J Vardy

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The Effects of Higher Bank Capital Requirements on Credit in Peru

By: Xiang Fang,David Jutrsa,Mr.Maria Soledad Martinez Peria,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Lev Ratnovski,Mr.Felix J Vardy

This paper offers novel evidence on the impact of raising bank capital requirements in the context of an emerging market: Peru. Using quarterly bank-level data and exploiting the adoption of bank-specific capital buffers, we find that higher capital requirements have a short-lived, negative impact on bank credit in Peru, although this effect becomes statistically insignificant in about half a year. This finding is robust to estimating different specifications to address concerns about the exogeneity of capital requirements. The fact that the reform was gradual and pre-announced and that banks were highly profitable at the time could explain the short-lived effects on credit.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484378830

ISBN 13

9781484378830

IMF Lending and Banking Crises

By: Luca Papi,Andrea Presbitero,Alberto Zazzaro

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IMF Lending and Banking Crises

By: Luca Papi,Andrea Presbitero,Alberto Zazzaro

This paper looks at the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs on banking crises in a large sample of developing countries, over the period 1970-2010. The endogeneity of the IMF intervention is addressed by adopting an instrumental variable strategy and a propensity score matching estimator. Controlling for the standard determinants of banking crises, our results indicate that countries participating in IMF-supported lending programs are significantly less likely to experience a future banking crisis than nonborrowing countries. We also provide evidence suggesting that compliance with conditionality and loan size matter.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484308697

ISBN 13

9781484308691

Trends and Challenges in Infrastructure Investment in Low-Income Developing Countries

By: Daniel Gurara,Mr.Vladimir Klyuev,MissNkunde Mwase,Andrea Presbitero,Xin Cindy Xu,Mr.Geoffrey J Bannister

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Trends and Challenges in Infrastructure Investment in Low-Income Developing Countries

By: Daniel Gurara,Mr.Vladimir Klyuev,MissNkunde Mwase,Andrea Presbitero,Xin Cindy Xu,Mr.Geoffrey J Bannister

This paper examines trends in infrastructure investment and its financing in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Following an acceleration of public investment over the last 15 years, the stock of infrastructure assets increased in LIDCs, even though large gaps remain compared to emerging markets. Infrastructure in LIDCs is largely provided by the public sector; private participation is mostly channeled through Public-Private Partnerships. Grants and concessional loans are an essential source of infrastructure funding in LIDCs, while the complementary role of bank lending is still limited to a few countries. Bridging infrastructure gaps would require a broad set of actions to improve the efficiency of public spending, mobilize domestic resources and support from development partners, and crowd in the private sector.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484324838

ISBN 13

9781484324837

International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries

By: Isha Agrawal,Rupa Duttagupta,Andrea Presbitero

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International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries

By: Isha Agrawal,Rupa Duttagupta,Andrea Presbitero

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484333047

ISBN 13

9781484333044

Debt Relief Initiatives

Policy Design and Outcomes

By: Marco Arnone,Andrea F. Presbitero

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Debt Relief Initiatives

Policy Design and Outcomes

By: Marco Arnone,Andrea F. Presbitero

This book deals with the recent debt crises in developing countries and analyzes the design and implementation of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, by providing background concepts, pointing out the main drawbacks and suggesting a different approach to debt sustainability and debt relief programs. The authors merge academic, operational and institutional expertise, in order to provide an evaluation as complete and balanced as possible on the much-debated effectiveness of debt relief in fostering economic growth, reducing poverty and reaching debt sustainability. Marco Arnone and Andrea F. Presbitero assess the joint evolution of external and domestic public debt and produce original empirical evidence on the potential effects of public debt on investment, economic growth and institution-building in low- and middle-income countries. The book also explores relevant and up-to-date policy issues, such as the loans-grants mix and the development of responsible lending strategies in foreign assistance, the surge of non-concessional and domestic borrowing by low-income countries, and the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis on debt sustainability.

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297

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1317154142

ISBN 13

9781317154143

Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending

By: Daniel Gurara,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero,Miguel Sarmiento

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Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending

By: Daniel Gurara,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero,Miguel Sarmiento

Cross-border bank lending is a growing source of external finance in developing countries and could play a key role for infrastructure financing. This paper looks at the role of multilateral development banks (MDBs) on the terms of syndicated loan deals, focusing on loan pricing. The results show that MDBs' participation is associated with higher borrowing costs and longer maturities---signaling a greater willingness to finance high risk projects which may not be financed by the private sector---but it is also associated with lower spreads for riskier borrowers. Overall, our findings suggest that MDBs could crowd in private investment in developing countries through risk mitigation.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484390342

ISBN 13

9781484390344

Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks

By: Chiara Broccolini,Giulia Lotti,Alessandro Maffioli,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero,Rodolfo Stucchi

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Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks

By: Chiara Broccolini,Giulia Lotti,Alessandro Maffioli,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero,Rodolfo Stucchi

We use loan-level data on syndicated lending to a large sample of developing countries between 1993 and 2017 to estimate the mobilization effects of multilateral development banks (MDBs), controlling for a large set of fixed effects. We find evidence of positive and significant direct and indirect mobilization effects of multilateral lending on the number of deals and on the total size of bank inflows. The number of lending banks and the average maturity of syndicated loans also increase after MDB lending. These effects are present not only on impact, but they last up to three years and are not offset by a decline in bond financing. There is no evidence of anticipation effects and the results are not driven by confounding factors, such as the presence of large global banks, Chinese lending and aid flows. Finally, the economic effects are sizable, suggesting that MBDs can play a vital role to mobilize private sector financing to achieve the goals of the 2030 Development Agenda.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498301061

ISBN 13

9781498301060

The Motives to Borrow

By: Antonio Fatás,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Ugo Panizza,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero

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The Motives to Borrow

By: Antonio Fatás,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Ugo Panizza,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero

Governments issue debt for good and bad reasons. While the good reasons—intertemporal tax-smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management—can explain some of the increases in public debt in recent years, they cannot account for all of the observed changes. Bad reasons for borrowing are driven by political failures associated with intergenerational transfers, strategic manipulation, and common pool problems. These political failures are a major cause of overborrowing though budgetary institutions and fiscal rules can play a role in mitigating governments’ tendencies to overborrow. While it is difficult to establish a clear causal link from high public debt to low output growth, it is likely that some countries pay a price—in terms of lower growth and greater output volatility—for excessive debt accumulation.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498315305

ISBN 13

9781498315302

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?

By: Daniel Gurara,Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero,Dawit Tessema

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On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?

By: Daniel Gurara,Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Mr.Andrea F Presbitero,Dawit Tessema

While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association between cost inflation and public investment in a large sample of road construction projects in developing countries. Consistent with the presence of absorptive capacity constraints, our results show a non-linear U-shaped relationship between public investment and project costs. Unit costs increase once public investment is close to 10% of GDP. This threshold is lower (about 7% of GDP) in countries with low investment efficiency and, in general, the effect of investment scaling up on costs is especially strong during investment booms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513529986

ISBN 13

9781513529981

When They Go Low, We Go High? Measuring Bank Market Power in a Low-for-Long Environment

By: International Monetary Fund

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When They Go Low, We Go High? Measuring Bank Market Power in a Low-for-Long Environment

By: International Monetary Fund

We examine trends in bank competition since the early 2000s. The Lerner index—arguably the most commonly used measure—shows evidence of a marked increase in market power in advanced economies, especially after the global financial crisis. But other frequently used indicators of banking sector competition seem much more muted. We show that the significant drop in policy rates that occurred in the aftermath of the crisis could explain the seeming disconnect. Adjusting the Lerner index for the impact of policy rates reveals that market power has been fairly constant in advanced economies—consistent with the other signals and similar to the pattern observed in emerging markets.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513573527

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9781513573526

Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

By: Ms. Gita Gopinath,Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero,Petia Topalova

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Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

By: Ms. Gita Gopinath,Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero,Petia Topalova

Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400272745

Rivista Studi Bizantini e Neoellenici n. 52

By: Andrea Luzzi

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Rivista Studi Bizantini e Neoellenici n. 52

By: Andrea Luzzi

Dirk KRAUSMÜLLER, An ambiguous authority: Pseudo-Dionysius the Areopagite and the debate about the care of the dead (6th-11th century)Pablo A. CAVALLERO, Doble en la hagiografía. Relator y públicoCarmelo CRIMI, I «Versi per la domenica di Pasqua» di Arsenio. Testo, traduzione, commentoSanto LUCÀ, La Parva Catechesis di Teodoro Studita in Italia meridionale: un nuovo testimone ritrovato a Melﬁ, in Basilicata Augusta ACCONCIA LONGO, I percorsi di una leggenda: Eliodoro Virgilio FaustGuillaume SAINT-GUILLAIN, The conquest of Monemvasia by the Franks: date and contextDomenico SURACE, La corrispondenza teologica con Paolo di Samosata (CPG 1705, 1708-1709). Considerazioni sull’editio princeps romana del 1608Salvatore COSTANZA, Trattati metabizantini di psefomanzia sulla vita coniugale (Athen. EBE 1265, ff. 49v-51v; 61r e 1275, f. 49v; IBI 211, ff. 46r-48v)Kostis PAVLOU, Solomòs fra italiano e greco: la designiﬁcazione di uno stilema neoclassicoPubblicazioni ricevute (a cura di Laura ZADRA)

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426

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Edizioni Nuova Cultura

Published Date

ISBN 10

8868127636

ISBN 13

9788868127633

Debt and Growth

Is There a Magic Threshold?

By: Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Damiano Sandri,John Simon

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Debt and Growth

Is There a Magic Threshold?

By: Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Damiano Sandri,John Simon

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, we find the debt trajectory can be as important as the debt level in understanding future growth prospects, since countries with high but declining debt appear to grow equally as fast as countries with lower debt. Notwithstanding this, we find some evidence that higher debt is associated with a higher degree of output volatility.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475532350

ISBN 13

9781475532357

Development and the State in the 21st Century

Tackling the Challenges facing the Developing World

By: Erica Frantz,Natasha M. Ezrow,Andrea Kendall-Taylor

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Development and the State in the 21st Century

Tackling the Challenges facing the Developing World

By: Erica Frantz,Natasha M. Ezrow,Andrea Kendall-Taylor

Development and the State in the 21st Century provides a comprehensive analysis of the state's role in contemporary development. The book examines the challenges that states face in the developing world – from lasting poverty and political instability to disease and natural disasters – and explores the ways in which states can build capacity to surmount these challenges. It takes seriously the role that state institutions can play in development while also looking at what institutional reform entails and why this reform is critical for policy recommendations to work. This analysis is set in the context of the evolution of both development practice and development theory. Chapters are organized around the key issues in the field and deploy a wide range of examples from different countries. A range of case studies throughout the text demonstrate the variety of problems development practitioners face and the key theoretical debates surrounding the subject. This text will be particularly useful to students of development and politics who wish to understand how governance and state-building can improve countries' economic performance and end cycles of poverty.

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368

Publisher

Bloomsbury Publishing

Published Date

ISBN 10

1137407131

ISBN 13

9781137407139

Taming the Revolution in Nineteenth-Century Spain

Jaime Balmes and Juan Donoso Cortés

By: Andrea Acle-Kreysing

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Taming the Revolution in Nineteenth-Century Spain

Jaime Balmes and Juan Donoso Cortés

By: Andrea Acle-Kreysing

Jaime Balmes und Juan Donoso Cortés – die beiden wichtigsten konservativen Denker im Spanien des 19. Jahrhunderts – versuchten aktiv im Zuge des aufkommenden Liberalismus, die Zentralität von Kirche und Monarchie zu bewahren, und gleichzeitig die stereotype Sichtweise Spaniens als rückständiges und isoliertes Land zu diskreditieren. Obwohl sie ein ähnliches Ziel verfolgten, unterschieden sich ihre Standpunkte: Während Balmes' Werke einen sozial orientierten Katholizismus vorwegnahmen, stellte Donoso das Christentum als höchstes soziales Gut dar, das mit dem modernen Liberalismus unvereinbar war. Andrea Acle-Kreysing hebt die ungelösten Spannungen in ihren Werken hervor und zeigt, dass das spanische politische Denken eine anregende Variante – und keine Abweichung – der zeitgenössischen europäischen Debatten war.

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277

Publisher

Campus Verlag

Published Date

ISBN 10

3593451247

ISBN 13

9783593451244

The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Andrea Deghi,Mr. Salih Fendoglu,Tara Iyer,Mr. Hamid R Tabarraei,Yizhi Xu,Mustafa Yenice

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The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Andrea Deghi,Mr. Salih Fendoglu,Tara Iyer,Mr. Hamid R Tabarraei,Yizhi Xu,Mustafa Yenice

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the relationship between sovereigns and banks—the so-called sovereign-bank nexus—in emerging market economies to the fore as bank holdings of domestic sovereign debt have surged. This paper examines the empirical relevance of this nexus to assess how it could amplify macro-financial stability risks. The findings show that an increase in sovereign credit risk can adversely affect banks’ balance sheets and credit supply, especially in countries with less-well-capitalized banking systems. Sovereign distress can also impact banks indirectly through the nonfinancial corporate sector by constraining their funding and reducing their capital expenditure. Notably, the effects on banks and corporates are strongly nonlinear in the size of the sovereign distress.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400222382

Maternal Cardiac Care - E-Book

A Guide to Managing Pregnant Women with Heart Disease

By: John H. Wilson,William Thomas Schnettler,Adam M. Lubert,Andrea Kelley Girnius

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Maternal Cardiac Care - E-Book

A Guide to Managing Pregnant Women with Heart Disease

By: John H. Wilson,William Thomas Schnettler,Adam M. Lubert,Andrea Kelley Girnius

Heart disease is currently the leading cause of maternal mortality in developed countries and is expected to increase further due to advanced maternal age and conditions such as type 2 diabetes. Maternal Cardiac Care: A Guide to Managing Pregnant Women with Heart Disease is an up-to-date, multidisciplinary resource for physicians and advanced practice nurses caring for pregnant patients with a variety of preexisting and emerging cardiac issues. - Offers comprehensive information on caring for women with heart disease, in an easy-to-follow, quick-access format. - Shares knowledge from a multidisciplinary group of experts who are well versed in the team approach needed to treat this high-risk patient population. - Includes extensive references for readers who want to delve more deeply into specific subjects. - Ideal for obstetricians, internists, cardiologists, critical care specialists, and advanced practice nurses involved in caring for pregnant patients, as well as institutions and departments that need detailed guidance on establishing a maternal cardiac care program.

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211

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Elsevier Health Sciences

Published Date

ISBN 10

032382465X

ISBN 13

9780323824651

The Potter's Field

By: Andrea Camilleri

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The Potter's Field

By: Andrea Camilleri

“You either love Andrea Camilleri or you haven’t read him yet. Each novel in this wholly addictive, entirely magical series, set in Sicily and starring a detective unlike any other in crime fiction, blasts the brain like a shot of pure oxygen. Aglow with local color, packed with flint-dry wit, as fresh and clean as Mediterranean seafood — altogether transporting. Long live Camilleri, and long live Montalbano.” A.J. Finn, #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Woman in the Window Witty and entertaining, the Montalbano novels by Andrea Camilleri-a master of the Italian detective story-have become favorites of mystery fans everywhere. In this latest installment, an unidentified corpse is found near Vigàta, a town known for its soil rich with potter's clay. Meanwhile, a woman reports the disappearance of her husband, a Colombian man with Sicilian origins who turns out to be related to a local mobster. Then Inspector Montalbano remembers the story from the Bible-Judas's betrayal, the act of remorse, and the money for the potter's field, where those of unknown or foreign origin are to be buried-and slowly, through myriad betrayals, finds his way to the solution to the crime.

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290

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Penguin

Published Date

ISBN 10

1101552611

ISBN 13

9781101552612

Civetta, Taylor, & Kirby's Critical Care Medicine

By: A. Joseph Layon,Andrea Gabrielli,Mihae Yu,Kenneth E. Wood

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Civetta, Taylor, & Kirby's Critical Care Medicine

By: A. Joseph Layon,Andrea Gabrielli,Mihae Yu,Kenneth E. Wood

Covering every problem encountered in today’s intensive care unit, this leading critical care textbook presents the knowledge and expertise of more than 350 global experts in this fast-changing field. Beginning with the social aspects of medicine, it then discusses monitoring and organ system pathobiology followed by specific diseases states/syndromes. Each chapter begins with immediate concerns and proceeds to broader-based discussions of relevant pathophysiologic and clinical issues.

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6346

Publisher

Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

Published Date

ISBN 10

1469889854

ISBN 13

9781469889856

Mobile Internet, Collateral, and Banking

By: Angelo D’Andrea,Patrick Hitayezu,Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Nicola Limodio,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

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Mobile Internet, Collateral, and Banking

By: Angelo D’Andrea,Patrick Hitayezu,Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Nicola Limodio,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

Combining administrative data on credit, internet penetration and a land reform in Rwanda, this paper shows that the complementarity between technology and law can overcome financial frictions. Leveraging quasi-experimental variation in 3G availability from lightning strikes and incidental coverage, we show that mobile connectivity steers borrowers from microfinance to commercial banks and improves loan terms. These effects are partly due to the role of 3G internet in facilitating the acquisition of land titles from the reform, used as a collateral for bank loans and mortgages. We quantify that the collateral's availability mediates 35% of the overall effect of mobile internet on credit and 80% for collateralized loans.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400270734

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Enrico Berkes,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Yorbol Yakhshilikov

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Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Enrico Berkes,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Yorbol Yakhshilikov

The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475579772

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9781475579772

FDI, Global Value Chains, and Local Sourcing in Developing Countries

By: Vito Amendolagine,Andrea Presbitero,Roberta Rabellotti,Marco Sanfilippo,Adnan Seric

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FDI, Global Value Chains, and Local Sourcing in Developing Countries

By: Vito Amendolagine,Andrea Presbitero,Roberta Rabellotti,Marco Sanfilippo,Adnan Seric

The local sourcing of intermediate products is one the main channels for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers. This paper investigates whether and how participation and positioning in the global value chains (GVCs) of host countries is associated to local sourcing by foreign investors. Matching two firm-level data sets of 19 Sub-Saharan African countries and Vietnam to country-sector level measures of GVC involvement, we find that more intense GVC participation and upstream specialization are associated to a higher share of inputs sourced locally by foreign investors. These effects are larger in countries with stronger rule of law and better education.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484335104

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9781484335109

Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

By: Giulia Bettin,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Nicola Spatafora

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Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

By: Giulia Bettin,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Nicola Spatafora

This paper examines how international remittances are affected by structural characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, and adverse shocks in both source and recipient economies. We exploit a novel, rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to 107 developing countries over the period 2005-2011. We find that remittances are negatively correlated with the business cycle in recipient countries, and increase in response to adverse exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters or large declines in the terms of trade. Remittances are positively correlated with economic conditions in the source province. Nevertheless, in the presence of similar negative shocks to both source and recipient economies, remittances remain counter-cyclical with respect to the recipient country.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484385330

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9781484385333

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

By: Mr.Markus Eberhardt,Andrea Presbitero

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Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

By: Mr.Markus Eberhardt,Andrea Presbitero

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484367820

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9781484367827

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Enrico Berkes,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Yorbol Yakhshilikov

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Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Enrico Berkes,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Yorbol Yakhshilikov

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475579772

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9781475579772

Lost and Found

Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

By: Mr.Carlo Cottarelli,Andrea Presbitero,Antonio Bassanetti

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Lost and Found

Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

By: Mr.Carlo Cottarelli,Andrea Presbitero,Antonio Bassanetti

The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sustainability. We argue that the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio, whose use is justified on a theoretical and empirical ground, should not be the only fiscal metric to assess the complex relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access. In particular, we show that, in a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio plays a critical role for market access. In particular, given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with a lower probability of debt distress/market loss and with a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475567863

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9781475567861

International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

By: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar,Mr. Davide Malacrino,Mr. Adil Mohommad,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

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International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

By: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar,Mr. Davide Malacrino,Mr. Adil Mohommad,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic.

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ISBN 13

9798400212178

Lost and Found

Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

By: Mr.Carlo Cottarelli,Andrea Presbitero,Antonio Bassanetti

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Lost and Found

Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

By: Mr.Carlo Cottarelli,Andrea Presbitero,Antonio Bassanetti

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475563205

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9781475563207

Debtor (Non-)Participation in Sovereign Debt Relief: A Real Option Approach

By: Danny Cassimon,Dennis Essers,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

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Debtor (Non-)Participation in Sovereign Debt Relief: A Real Option Approach

By: Danny Cassimon,Dennis Essers,Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

Developing countries have recently proved reluctant to participate in sovereign debt moratoria and debt relief initiatives. We argue that debtors' (non-)participation decisions can be understood through the lens of real options. Eligible countries compare the net benefits of participating in a debt relief initiative now with the value of waiting to potentially execute their participation option later, when they may have more information on the benefits and costs. We corroborate the real option framing with anecdotal evidence and through a survival analysis that exploits cross-country and time variation in the requests to participate in the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), which provided temporary debt moratoria during the COVID-19 pandemic. Structured along the policy levers suggested by the real option framework, we discuss a number of ways in which participation in debt relief initiatives can be made more attractive to debtor countries.

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9798400248504

Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

By: Giulia Bettin,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Nicola Spatafora

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Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

By: Giulia Bettin,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Nicola Spatafora

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1484385330

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9781484385333

Financial Access Under the Microscope

By: Sumit Agarwal,Thomas Kigabo,Ms.Camelia Minoiu,Andrea Presbitero,Andre Silva

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Financial Access Under the Microscope

By: Sumit Agarwal,Thomas Kigabo,Ms.Camelia Minoiu,Andrea Presbitero,Andre Silva

We examine the impact of a large-scale microcredit expansion program on financial access and the transition of previously unbanked borrowers to commercial banks. Using administrative micro-data covering the universe of loans to individuals from a developing country, we show that the program significantly increased access to credit, particularly in less developed areas. This effect is driven by the newly set-up credit cooperatives (U-SACCOs), which grant loans to previously unbanked individuals. A sizable share of first-time borrowers who need a second loan switch to commercial banks, which cream-skim low-risk borrowers and grant them larger, cheaper, and longer-term loans. These borrowers are not riskier than similar individuals already at commercial banks and only initially receive smaller loans. Our results suggest that the microfinance sector, together with a well-functioning credit reference bureau, help mitigate information frictions in credit markets.

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