Ananthakrishnan Prasad's Books

The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf

By: Raphael Espinoza,Ghada Fayad,Ananthakrishnan Prasad

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The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf

By: Raphael Espinoza,Ghada Fayad,Ananthakrishnan Prasad

The economies of the Arab states of the Gulf have gone through considerable changes in the last decade, spurred by high oil prices and ambitious diversification plans. Large-scale immigration provided the labour force while capital inflows and financial development leveraged oil wealth to finance diversification. The collapse in real estate prices around the world followed by the global crisis slowed growth and raised questions on the appropriateness of what has been dubbed the 'GCC model'. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have thus far managed to leverage their large natural resource wealth to achieve economic prosperity and finance social advances, and the region also emerged as an important source of funds for the other countries in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the GCC face several challenges. Productivity growth must increase to fully reap the benefits of investment. Jobs must be created for the nationals and the growing youth population. State intervention (which is prevalent, given that oil revenues accrue to the government) must become efficient and be used to diversify and modernize the economy. In addition, the recent crisis highlighted the importance of fiscal, monetary, and financial stability policies to manage macroeconomic cycles. This book analyses these issues and combines data and econometric analysis with theoretical discussions. It concludes with a discussion of the importance of the GCC for the wider region.

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209

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OUP Oxford

Published Date

ISBN 10

0191506745

ISBN 13

9780191506741

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phakawa Jeasakul,Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Adrian Alter,Alan Xiaochen Feng,Changchun Wang

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Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phakawa Jeasakul,Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Adrian Alter,Alan Xiaochen Feng,Changchun Wang

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498301347

ISBN 13

9781498301343

Monetary Operations and Islamic Banking in the GCC

Challenges and Options

By: Ms.Ritu Basu,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Sergio L. Rodriguez

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Monetary Operations and Islamic Banking in the GCC

Challenges and Options

By: Ms.Ritu Basu,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Sergio L. Rodriguez

The assessment provides evidence of market segmentation across Islamic and conventional banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), leading to excess liquidity, and an uneven playing field for Islamic banks that might affect their growth. Liquidiy management has been a long-standing concern in the global Islamic finance industry as there is a general lack of Shari’ah compliant instruments than can serve as high-quality short-term liquid assets. The degree of segmentation and bank behavior varies across countries depending on Shari’ah permissibility and the availability of Shari’ah-compliant instruments. A partial response would be to support efforts to build Islamic liquid interbank and money markets, which are crucial for monetary policy transmission through the Islamic financial system.This can be achieved, to a large extent, by deepening Islamic government securities and developing Shari’ah-compliant money market instruments.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513588516

ISBN 13

9781513588513

Estimating The Inflation–Growth Nexus—A Smooth Transition Model

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Gene L. Leon

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Estimating The Inflation–Growth Nexus—A Smooth Transition Model

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Gene L. Leon

Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007-08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960-2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. We use a smooth transition model to investigate the speed at which inflation beyond a threshold becomes harmful to growth, an important consideration in the policy response to rising inflation as the world economy recovers. We estimate that for all country groups (except for advanced countries) inflation above a threshold of about 10 percent quickly becomes harmful to growth, suggesting the need for a prompt policy response to inflation at or above the relevant threshold. For the advanced economies, the threshold is much lower. For oil exporting countries, the estimates are less robust, possibly reflecting heterogeneity among oil producers, but the effect of higher inflation for oil producers is found to be stronger.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451982194

ISBN 13

9781451982190

Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region

By: Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Heba Abdel Monem,Pilar Garcia Martinez

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Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region

By: Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Heba Abdel Monem,Pilar Garcia Martinez

Several characteristics of the structure of the Arab economies, their economic policy framework, and their banking systems make macroprudential policy a particular relevant tool. For most oil exporters, heavy reliance on the extractive sector for generating fiscal revenues and export earnings translates into increased vulnerabilities to oil price shocks. In the case of oil importers, relatively small external and fiscal buffers make them highly vulnerable to shocks. This paper discusses the experience of Arab countries in implementing macroprudential policies and contains recommendations to strengthen their macroprudential framework.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484361911

ISBN 13

9781484361917

Macroprudential Policy in the GCC Countries

By: Ms.Zsofia Arvai,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Kentaro Katayama

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Macroprudential Policy in the GCC Countries

By: Ms.Zsofia Arvai,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Kentaro Katayama

As undiversified commodity exporters, GCC economies are prone to pro-cyclical systemic risk in the financial system. During periods of high hydrocarbon prices, favorable economic prospects make the financial sector keen to lend, leading to higher domestic credit growth and easier access to external financing. Fiscal policy is a very important tool for macroeconomic management, but due to the significant time lags and expenditure rigidities, it has not been a flexible enough tool to prevent credit booms and the build-up of systemic risk in the GCC. This, together with limited monetary policy independence because of the pegged exchange rate, means that macro-prudential policy has a particularly important role in limiting systemic risk in the financial system. This importance is reinforced by the underdeveloped financial markets in the region that provide limited risk management tools and shortcomings in crisis resolution frameworks. This paper will discuss the importance of macro-prudential policy in the GCC countries, look at the experience with macro-prudential policies in the boom/bust cycle in the second half of the 2000s, and use the broad frameworks being developed in the Fund and elsewhere to discuss ways existing frameworks and policy toolkits in the region can be strengthened given the characteristics of the GCC economies.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484346521

ISBN 13

9781484346525

Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Ms. Elena Loukoianova,Alan Xiaochen Feng,William Oman

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Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Ms. Elena Loukoianova,Alan Xiaochen Feng,William Oman

Global investment to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature and adaptation goals requires immediate actions—first and foremost—on climate policies. Policies should be accompanied by commensurate financing flows to close the large financing gap globally, and in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) in particular. This note discusses potential ways to mobilize domestic and foreign private sector capital in climate finance, as a complement to climate-related policies, by mitigating relevant risks and constraints through public-private partnerships involving multilateral, regional, and national development banks. It also overviews the role the IMF can play in the process.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400216428

Islamic Finance

Opportunities, Challenges, and Policy Options

By: Mr.Alfred Kammer,Mr.Mohamed Norat,Mr.Marco Pinon,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Christopher M. Towe,Mr.Zeine Zeidane

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Islamic Finance

Opportunities, Challenges, and Policy Options

By: Mr.Alfred Kammer,Mr.Mohamed Norat,Mr.Marco Pinon,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Christopher M. Towe,Mr.Zeine Zeidane

The SDN discusses the main policy issues and challenges in building an inclusive and safe Islamic finance industry, with emphasis on Islamic banking and Sukuk markets. To this end, it discuses why Islamic finance matters, taking into account its recent and prospective growth; and, its potential contributions in terms of financial inclusion, support for small- and medium-sized enterprises and investment in public infrastructure and, in principle, reduced systemic risk. It then covers a range of regulatory and other challenges, and offers policy advice, to address factors that hamper the development of the industry and, more generally, the delivery of its potential benefits. The paper covers regulatory and supervisory issues, safety nets and resolution frameworks, access to finance, Sukuk markets, and macroeconomic policies.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475561822

ISBN 13

9781475561821

Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad

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Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad

According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455208892

ISBN 13

9781455208890

Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad

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Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad

The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the pass-through of policy rates to retail rates is on the low side, reflecting the shallowness of money markets and the manner in which GCC central banks operate. In addition to policy rates, the GCC monetary authorities use reserve requirements, loan-to-deposit ratios, and other macroprudential tools to affect liquidity and credit. Nonetheless, a panel vector auto regression model suggests that U.S. monetary policy has a strong and statistically significant impact on broad money, non-oil activity, and inflation in the GCC region. Unanticipated shocks to broad money also affect prices but do not stimulate growth. Continued efforts to develop the domestic financial markets will increase interest rate pass-through and strengthen monetary policy transmission.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475505094

ISBN 13

9781475505092

Regional Financial Integration in the GCC

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Oral Williams

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Regional Financial Integration in the GCC

By: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Oral Williams

We investigate the extent of regional financial integration in the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The limited volume data available suggests that regional integration is non-negligible. Bahrain and Kuwait investments especially are oriented towards the region. The development of stock markets in the region will also improve the extent of financial integration. Interest rate data shows that convergence exists and that interest rate differentials are relatively short-lived-especially compared to the ECCU, another emerging market region sharing a common currency. Equities data using cross-listed stocks confirms that stock markets are fairly integrated compared to other emerging market regions, although financial integration is hampered by market illiquidity.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451982585

ISBN 13

9781451982589

Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization

The Case of India

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer,Ms.Helene Poirson Ward

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Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization

The Case of India

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer,Ms.Helene Poirson Ward

The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451869908

ISBN 13

9781451869903

Dynamics Of Insect Behavior

By: T.N. Ananthakrishnan,K.G. Sivaramakrishnan

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Dynamics Of Insect Behavior

By: T.N. Ananthakrishnan,K.G. Sivaramakrishnan

In this book, 'state of art' situation in patterns of behaviour is presented by the authors, each with expertise in respective fields on diverse aspects such as pollination, predation and parasitism, forest and agricultural pests, besides the dynamics of aquatic insects in general and dragonflies in particular, in addition to insect vectors of diseases. The need for an appreciation of the differentiation processes controlling growth and development of plant galls has been adequately emphasised, these galls representing highly regulated growth manifestations of plants, ensuring nutrition and shelter for the insects concerned. Behavioural shifts of insects due to current climatic changes and their implications in insect conservation and control are also highlighted. This book will be relevant to the undergraduate and particularly graduate students taking courses in insect ecology and evolution, conservation biology and environmental management as well as to committed researchers in these fields in addition to conservation practitioners eager to have a comprehensive background of the multifaceted aspects of insect behavioural dynamics.

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222

Publisher

Scientific Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

9386347539

ISBN 13

9789386347534

Insect Biodiversity : Functional Dynamics and Ecological Perspectives

By: T.N. Ananthakrishnan

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Insect Biodiversity : Functional Dynamics and Ecological Perspectives

By: T.N. Ananthakrishnan

Rapid depletion and degradation of species in diverse ecosystems and the implications of this for human welfare have the cause for increasing concern. Biodiversity or variability among living organisms and the ecological complexes of which they are a part, is essential for ensuring the basic ecological services and resources necessary for sustaining human welfare. The loss of biodiversity is therefore, considered one of the most serious problem threatening the world today. An understanding of the ecological implications of the increasing loss of bodiversity, not to mention of the economic implications, has therefore, became vital. A biodiversity loss is irreversible. A calls for increased caution in our efforts to convert and exploit natural resources. Some minimal level of biodiversity is necessary to main ecological functioning, which in turn is necessary for generating the biological resources on which human welfare depends. Needless to emphasive that substantial biodiversity loss occurs due to forest clearing and degradation, leading to the need for assessing biodiversity in different ecosystems. Keeping these aspects in mind, the present volume highlights biodiversity in different cropping systems besides that the impact of cold and hot deserts. Selection of the topics in the various chapters is essentially because of the experience of the authors in the field of biodiversity.

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238

Publisher

Scientific Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

9387869717

ISBN 13

9789387869714

Ecological Entomology: Insect Life in Odd Environments

By: T.N. Ananthakrishnan,K.G. Sivaramakrishnan

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Ecological Entomology: Insect Life in Odd Environments

By: T.N. Ananthakrishnan,K.G. Sivaramakrishnan

One of the principal aims in writing this book pertains to the increasing impact of human influence on natural habitats in recent years, more notably to the loss of habitat quality. Increased urbanization, considerable reduction in natural forest areas, changing ecology of fresh water ecosystems, lakes and wet lands, besides changing microhabitats, have had their impact on insect populations. A wide range of responses exist among several species of insects living in these changing environments, more especially landscape dynamics creating a shifting mosaic of habitats. Sudden changes in the extent or quality of habitat tend to influence the behaviour, reproduction and survival of individuals. In very rare cases the existence of a particular species depends on the presence of some other species, not to mention of the extinction of food chains. As such, a basic understanding of the nature of habitat loss and fragmentation and their impact on insect species dynamics become important. Numerous questions are raised about patterns and timing of the evolution of insect-plant association which are essential for an understanding as to ``why the world is the world as it is today''. In this effort several specialists on diverse aspects have generously rendered assistance through providing literature and photographs and while appreciating their generosity, we would like to thank them individually for all the assistance rendered without which the production of this volume would be impossible.

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156

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Scientific Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

9387869601

ISBN 13

9789387869608

Oman

Banking Sector Resilience

By: Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Pierluigi Bologna

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Oman

Banking Sector Resilience

By: Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Pierluigi Bologna

This note assesses the impact of the global financial risks on Oman's banking system and highlights the remaining risks. It concludes that the liquidity and prudential measures introduced by the authorities mitigated the adverse effects of the crisis on the banking system. Banks continue to make profits despite higher provisioning. Stress tests confirm the resilience of the banking system to credit and market risks. Banks have limited exposure to derivatives and the majority of the off-balance sheet exposures are conventional and relatively secure. Interest rate risks are within an acceptable range.

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