The 1918-19 influenza epidemic killed more than fifty million people worldwide. The SARS epidemic of 2002-3, by comparison, killed fewer than a thousand. The success in containing the spread of SARS was due largely to the rapid global response of public health authorities, which was aided by insights resulting from mathematical models. Models enabled authorities to better understand how the disease spread and to assess the relative effectiveness of different control strategies. In this book, Lisa Sattenspiel and Alun Lloyd provide a comprehensive introduction to mathematical models in epidemiology and show how they can be used to predict and control the geographic spread of major infectious diseases. Key concepts in infectious disease modeling are explained, readers are guided from simple mathematical models to more complex ones, and the strengths and weaknesses of these models are explored. The book highlights the breadth of techniques available to modelers today, such as population-based and individual-based models, and covers specific applications as well. Sattenspiel and Lloyd examine the powerful mathematical models that health authorities have developed to understand the spatial distribution and geographic spread of influenza, measles, foot-and-mouth disease, and SARS. Analytic methods geographers use to study human infectious diseases and the dynamics of epidemics are also discussed. A must-read for students, researchers, and practitioners, no other book provides such an accessible introduction to this exciting and fast-evolving field.
This text focuses on the risks faced by managers of financial institutions and the methods and markets through which these risks are managed. The context is the Canadian financial services industry. The text begins with thumbnail sketches of the industry, its member companies, their structures and the regulatory environment. It looks not only at banks but also at insurance companies, trust companies, credit unions, investment banks and finance companies, providing a holistic view of the challenges of liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit and other risks in the global environment.This highly regarded text continues to take the same innovative approach as the first edition, focusing on managing return and risk. The book's central theme is that the risks faced by financial institution managers, and the methods and markets through which these risks are managed, are essentially the same, whether the institution is a commercial bank, an investment bank, a credit union, an insurance company or a finance company. A second theme that emerges in this edition is that the risks booked by the financial institution use risk capital and generate an expected return that should justify that use. The authors explain the latest techniques of risk measurement against the backdrop of the convergence of worldwide securities, investment, credit and insurance industries.
This is the first biography of Rt. Hon. William Wedgwood Benn DSO, DFC, first Viscount Stansgate, cabinet minister under MacDonald and Attlee, Air Commodore with active service in both World Wars, defector from the Liberals to Labour over his dispute with Lloyd George, and father of Tony Benn. Benn served in the army and RAF during the First World War (when he took part in the first parachute drop behind enemy lines at night) and in the Second World War he reached the rank of acting Air Commodore). His eldest son Michael, heir to the viscountcy, died on active service with the RAF, leaving his second son Tony to inherit the title and a seat in the House of Lords. ??Before his death, Tony Benn gave extensive interviews for this book. His brother, David has also provided interviews and material, as have other members of the family including Stephen Benn (now the third Viscount Stansgate). Extensive paperwork left by William Wedgwood Benn (now in the Parliamentary Archives) including his diary and unfinished, unpublished autobiography were all utilised in the construction of this biography. Alun Wyburn-Powell has managed to construct a biographical study of real force, weaving together snippets from Benn's own private papers with insights from his family and colleagues in order to create an authentic impression of Benn and the times in which he lived.
This book is the first analysis of political defections over a long time span. It investigates all the Liberal/Liberal Democrat MPs and former MPs who defected from the party between the elections of December 1910 and May 2010 - around one sixth of all those elected - as well as the smaller number of inward defectors. Each of the 122 defections was an expert judgment on the state of the party at a specific date. The research investigates the timing and reasons for all the defections and reveals long-term trends and underlying causes and apportions responsibility between leaders for them. The author finds some significant differences which distinguished defectors from loyalists and draws wider conclusions about the underlying factors which lead MPs to defect. This book will be of interest to students and lecturers of British politics and anyone interested in the relationship between British political parties in the last century.
The Routledge Companion to Historical Studies provides a much-needed critical introduction to the major historians and philosophers together with the central issues, ideas and theories which have prompted the rethinking of history that has gathered pace since the 1990s. With twenty-nine new entries, and many that have been substantially updated, key concepts for the new history are examined through the ideas of leading thinkers such as Kant, Nietzsche, Croce, Collingwood, White, Foucault and Derrida, and subjects range over class, empiricism, hermeneutics, inference, relativism and technology. New entries for the second edition include: Carl Becker Frank R. Ankersmit Jean-Francois Lyotard gender justified belief the aesthetic turn race film biography cultural history critical theory and experimental history. With a revised introduction setting out the state of the discipline of history today, as well as an extended and updated bibliography, this is the essential reference work for all students of history.
Physick and the family offers new insights into the early modern sickness experience, through a study of the medical history of Wales. Newly available in paperback, this first ever monograph of early modern Welsh medicine utilises a large body of newly discovered source material. Using numerous approaches and methodologies, it makes a significant contribution to debates in medical history, including economies of knowledge, domestic medicine and care, material culture and the rural medical marketplace. Drawing on sources from probates to parish records, diaries to domestic remedy collections, Withey offers new directions for recovering the often obscure medical worldview of the ‘ordinary’ person. This innovative study will appeal to anyone interested in the social history of the early modern period. Its multi-disciplinary approach will appeal to a broad spectrum of academics and scholars, and will enhance a range of courses and modules both in medical history and in social history more widely.
Stori wedi ei gosod yn ystod cyfnod cythryblus Streic Glowyr Prydain yn 1984/85. Streic a welodd ddiwedd diwydiant glo de Cymru. Nofel sy'n canolbwyntio ar y tensiynau rhwng y streicwyr, a'r rhai sy'n torri'r streic.
First Published in 1991. Reshaping Rural England covers the crucial period of English rural history from the high point of Britain's agricultural power in the 1850s and 1860s through to the grim years of the inter-war period. Uncovering many of the myths of an idyllic rural England, Howkins looks in detail at the role of women, the workplace, the family and religion. Topics covered include: * the creation of a stable social order by the rural elites, concealing widespread poverty and disorder. * the economic collapse of the cereal market in the 1870s. * the emergence of trade unions and other forms of social conflict in the countryside. * changes in agricultural production and the horror of war. Alun Howkins combines the concerns of the new social history with original research to produce an accessible and coherent account of the transformation of a society.
These were events which prefigured and did much to shape the political battles of the last half century, the devolution half century in Wales. They shaped the non-nationalist, but distinctive Welsh social democratic preferences of the last sixty years. For anyone interested in the formative moments of today's Wales, this is both essential and highly entertaining reading." – Mark Drakeford, First Minister of Wales 2018-2024 It was a period of Welsh politics that has become etched in the collective memory. The rise of a Welsh independence movement and the first Plaid Cymru Member of Parliament. The Labour Party searching for a way forward in a political climate that was riven with dissension and eventual rancour. It was a fight for social democracy against the centralised power of the British state. The first battlefield was Carmarthen and the protagonists were Gwynfor Evans, the leader of Plaid Cymru and the young Labour hopeful Gwynoro Jones. Their rivalry lasted throughout the Seventies. They fought three elections and on one occasion the result was decided by just three votes. This book tells the story of a political rivalry which was also very personal. It was a local confrontation that drew on national battlelines. It was about Carmarthen and Wales. Both men had their vision of the Wales they wanted to fight for. These pages unfold the story from Gwynoro Jones' perspective for the first time, in an attempt to redress the imbalance of Gwynfor Evans' story dominating the narrative for so long. Drawing on an extensive archive, collected at the time, Gwynoro shows how the two fought their politics in the newspapers of the day and through speeches on constituency public platforms, where they argue about the Welsh language and devolution, Europe and agriculture. But they only ever actually met once. Gwynoro also reflects on how he views those turbulent years today. Through their wranglings, a picture is also painted of Welsh politics in the decade that led up to the referendum on devolution in 1979, as Plaid and Labour searched for a way forward. And ultimately, a generation later, to the creation of a parliament for Wales.
Have you ever wondered what happens behind the scenes in the corridors of power during a major crisis or after a ministerial reshuffle? How do new government ministers get to grips with their portfolios and priorities? Who guides and supports them? And why, sometimes – during events such as 'Partygate' – do things go wrong? In this meticulously researched book, former senior civil servant Alun Evans lifts the lid on a vital but little-known cog in the machinery of government: private office and the private secretaries who work within it. Private secretaries exercise huge influence, and yet most of us have never heard of them. They are the ones who manage the flow of work, who whisper quietly in ministers' ears and who have been Prime Ministers' closest, most trusted and most discreet confidants. At critical moments in our national history – from the Falklands War to the Westland affair, from Black Wednesday to the 2008 financial crash, from New Labour to the coalition government – they have been central but hidden players. With exceptional access to former Prime Ministers and decision-makers, Evans explores what private office is and why it matters to British democracy. He argues that following the egregious constitutional breaches of Boris Johnson's premiership, private office must once again be taken seriously so it can return to being the independent junction box of government and a vital part of the British constitution.
The notion of 'history' has always been one strenuously debated by both academics and the wider population. This deeply provocative re-thinking of our engagement with the past by one of the world's leading post-modern historians takes that debate one step further. Alun Munslow re-assesses history in the light of post-modernism and other intellectual challenges which have questioned the primacy of the modernist epistemology of empiricism. In an original and stimulating vision of history that will intrigue all those seriously interested in the subject, Munslow argues that history is not only about the sources, but a literary construction. Munslow concludes that history, as a cultural narrative about the past can never tell us what the past really means. This far reaching conclusion is based on the radical idea that the content of history is defined as much by the nature of the language used to represent and interpret that content as it is by research into the sources. This suggests that history does not produce the most likely meaning of the past but rather can only generate alternative meanings. The lead volume in a major new series on historical thinking and practice, this is an accessible yet absorbing study that breaks new ground in discussing the stage history is at now, and perhaps most engagingly, the direction it will take in the future.
Do We Need Architects? Journey Beneath the Surface of Architecture is a journey of discovery that takes place over twenty-five years of my life, from exploring my own motivations to become an architect, learning about architecture, and the changing environment of practicing architecture to experiencing the impact of architecture on the built environment. The story investigates the meaning, perception, and relevance of architecture in todays world. Have you ever had a favorite building, park, or square? A place that affects your mood? All of us at some stage have experienced the impact of architecture and landscape on the way we perceive reality. Let me invite you on a journey that examines what architects do, as well as the legacy of the architectural process that influences the environment, visiting places and exploring architectural interventions by taking them out of the glossy images shown in the architecture books and industry journals and placing them in the context of their urban or natural setting. It is always as a found object, always in the present, examining the impact of humanity on the environment and the contribution architecture has made and is continuing to make to the everyday environment where we all live, work, and play.
This survey of the rise and decline of English watchmaking fills a gap in the historiography of British industry. Clerkenwell in London was supplied with 'rough movements' from Prescot, 200 miles away in Lancashire. Smaller watchmaking hubs later emerged in Coventry, Liverpool, and Birmingham. The English industry led European watchmaking in the late eighteenth century in output, and its lucrative export markets extended to the Ottoman Empire and China. It also made marine chronometers, the most complex of hand-crafted pre-industrial mechanisms, crucially important to the later hegemony of Britain’s navy and merchant marine. Although Britain was the 'workshop of the world', its watchmaking industry declined. Why? First, because cheap Swiss watches were smuggled into British markets. Later, in the era of Free Trade, they were joined by machine-made watches from factories in America, enabled by the successful application to watch production of the 'American system' in Waltham, Massachusetts after 1858. The Swiss watch industry adapted itself appropriately, expanded, and reasserted its lead in the world’s markets. English watchmaking did not: its trajectory foreshadowed and was later followed by other once-prominent British industries. Clerkenwell retained its pre-industrial production methods. Other modernization attempts in Britain had limited success or failed.
This engaging history of rural England and Wales during the twentieth century looks at the role of the countryside as both a place of work and of leisure and looks at the many crises it has suffered during that time.
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