Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.
In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
In The Case for Impeachment, Distinguished Professor of History at American University Allan J. Lichtman illuminates exactly how the impeachment of President Trump might work by showing how his actions—past or future—make him uniquely vulnerable to impeachment proceedings. From his dealings with Russia, to his conflicts of interest at home and abroad, to the numerous civil suits involving him, Lichtman zeroes in on Mr. Trump’s key areas of weakness. Professor Lichtman also offers a fascinating look at presidential impeachments throughout American history, including the often-overlooked story of Andrew Johnson’s impeachment, little known details about Richard Nixon’s resignation, as well as Bill Clinton’s hearings. Many historians and legal scholars agree that we are facing uncharted political waters and most citizens—politics aside—want to know where the country is headed. Professor Lichtman has correctly predicted every Presidential election since 1984, including the election of 2016. Now, he is focusing on the 45th President of the United States, demonstrating his view that it is not a question of if President Trump will be impeached, but a question of when.
With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.
Combining statistical analysis with well-written narrative history, this re-evaluation of the 1928 presidential election gives a vivid portrait of the candidates and the campaign. Lichtman has based his study primarily on a statistical analysis of data from that election and the presidential elections from 1916 to 1940 for all the 2,058 counties outside the former Confederate South. Not relying exclusively on the results of his quantitative analysis, however, Lichtman has also made an exhaustive survey of previous scholarship and contemporary accounts of the 1928 election. He discusses and challenges previous interpretations, especially the ethnocultural and pluralist interpretations and the application of critical election theory to the election. In disputing this theory, which claims that 1928 was a realigning election in which the coalitions were formed that dominated future elections, Lichtman determines that 1928 was an aberration with little impact on later political patterns.
“A sweeping look at the history of voting rights in the U.S.”—Vox Who has the right to vote? And who benefits from exclusion? For most of American history, the right to vote has been a privilege restricted by wealth, sex, race, and literacy. Economic qualifications were finally eliminated in the nineteenth century, but the ideal of a white man’s republic persisted long after that. Women and racial minorities had to fight hard and creatively to secure their voice, but voter identification laws, registration requirements, and voter purges continue to prevent millions of American citizens from voting. An award-winning historian and voting right activist, Allan Lichtman gives us the history behind today’s headlines. He shows that political gerrymandering and outrageous attempts at voter suppression have been a fixture of American democracy—but so have efforts to fight back and ensure that every citizen’s voice be heard. “Lichtman uses history to contextualize the fix we’re in today. Each party gropes for advantage by fiddling with the franchise... Growing outrage, he thinks, could ignite demands for change. With luck, this fine history might just help to fan the flame.” —New York Times Book Review “The great value of Lichtman’s book is the way it puts today’s right-wing voter suppression efforts in their historical setting. He identifies the current push as the third crackdown on African-American voting rights in our history.” —Michael Tomasky, New York Review of Books
America’s founders feared a president like Donald Trump. Through the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, they erected a fortified but constrained government to secure the benchmarks of our democracy and established the guardrails designed to protect it. But Trump pushed almost every one of the Framers’ safeguards to its limit—most held, but some broke under the weight of presidential abuses even the Framers did not foresee. Thirteen Cracks will be the first book to expose the most vulnerable areas in our democracy, explain in historical context how President Trump uniquely and outrageously exploited these weak spots, and propose a fix for each challenge. Historian Allen J. Lichtman argues that Trump has put us at a pivot point in our history, where the survival of American democracy is at stake. But this is also an historic opportunity to shore up the vulnerabilities and to strengthen our democracy.
America’s founders feared a president like Donald Trump. Through the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, they erected a fortified but constrained government to secure the benchmarks of our democracy and established the guardrails designed to protect it. But Trump pushed almost every one of the Framers’ safeguards to its limit—most held, but some broke under the weight of presidential abuses even the Framers did not foresee. Thirteen Cracks will be the first book to expose the most vulnerable areas in our democracy, explain in historical context how President Trump uniquely and outrageously exploited these weak spots, and propose a fix for each challenge. Historian Allen J. Lichtman argues that Trump has put us at a pivot point in our history, where the survival of American democracy is at stake. But this is also an historic opportunity to shore up the vulnerabilities and to strengthen our democracy.
Examines the origins, development, and achievements of conservatism in the United States, from the birth of the modern right in the 1920s through the restoration of the conservative consensus at the end of the twentieth century.
A radical case for the repeal of the 2nd Amendment as the only way to control gun violence in America There's an average of one mass shooting per day in the United States. Given the ineffectiveness of the gun control lobby, it's time for a strategy with spine. In Repeal the Second Amendment, Allan J. Lichtman has written the first book that uses history, legal theory and up-to-the-minute data to make a compelling case for the amendment’s repeal in order to create a clear road to sensible gun control in the US. Repeal the Second Amendment explores both the true history and current interpretation of the Second Amendment to expose the NRA’s blatant historical manipulations and irresponsible fake news releases. Lichtman looks at the history of firearms and gun regulations from colonial times to the present to explain how a historically forgotten sentence in the Constitution has become a flash point of recent politics that benefits only the gun industry, their lobbyists, and the politicians on their payroll. He probes court decisions and the effective lobbying and public relations strategies of the gun lobby as well as the ineffectiveness of the gun control movement for lessons in doing better. What emerges is a clear and cogent plan--repeal and replace the Second Amendment without taking guns away from anyone who has them now--to make the US a safer place. It's time to Repeal the Second Amendment, and Allan Lichtman is the man to bring this radical plan to America.
Nearly seventy-five years after World War II, a contentious debate lingers over whether Franklin Delano Roosevelt turned his back on the Jews of Hitler's Europe. Defenders claim that FDR saved millions of potential victims by defeating Nazi Germany. Others revile him as morally indifferent and indict him for keeping America's gates closed to Jewish refugees and failing to bomb Auschwitz's gas chambers. In an extensive examination of this impassioned debate, Richard Breitman and Allan J. Lichtman find that the president was neither savior nor bystander. In FDR and the Jews, they draw upon many new primary sources to offer an intriguing portrait of a consummate politician-compassionate but also pragmatic-struggling with opposing priorities under perilous conditions. For most of his presidency Roosevelt indeed did little to aid the imperiled Jews of Europe. He put domestic policy priorities ahead of helping Jews and deferred to others' fears of an anti-Semitic backlash. Yet he also acted decisively at times to rescue Jews, often withstanding contrary pressures from his advisers and the American public. Even Jewish citizens who petitioned the president could not agree on how best to aid their co-religionists abroad. Though his actions may seem inadequate in retrospect, the authors bring to light a concerned leader whose efforts on behalf of Jews were far greater than those of any other world figure. His moral position was tempered by the political realities of depression and war, a conflict all too familiar to American politicians in the twenty-first century.
“A sweeping look at the history of voting rights in the U.S.”—Vox Who has the right to vote? And who benefits from exclusion? For most of American history, the right to vote has been a privilege restricted by wealth, sex, race, and literacy. Economic qualifications were finally eliminated in the nineteenth century, but the ideal of a white man’s republic persisted long after that. Women and racial minorities had to fight hard and creatively to secure their voice, but voter identification laws, registration requirements, and voter purges continue to prevent millions of American citizens from voting. An award-winning historian and voting right activist, Allan Lichtman gives us the history behind today’s headlines. He shows that political gerrymandering and outrageous attempts at voter suppression have been a fixture of American democracy—but so have efforts to fight back and ensure that every citizen’s voice be heard. “Lichtman uses history to contextualize the fix we’re in today. Each party gropes for advantage by fiddling with the franchise... Growing outrage, he thinks, could ignite demands for change. With luck, this fine history might just help to fan the flame.” —New York Times Book Review “The great value of Lichtman’s book is the way it puts today’s right-wing voter suppression efforts in their historical setting. He identifies the current push as the third crackdown on African-American voting rights in our history.” —Michael Tomasky, New York Review of Books
This unique book is required reading for every medical practitioner. It is the only published text on this very important new disease. It examines all aspects of the subject including the circumstances in which the germ may be found, its specific pathological features and methods of diagnosing the lesion. Its author discovered Chlamydia pneumoniae germs in atheroma lesions and is a world authority in this very specialized field of pathology.
Bill Clinton's administration was filled with new policies and achievements for the nation's future, but those achievements were easily overshadowed by personal flaws and scandal. Despite his personal problems, Clinton captured the American public and served two terms as one of our more memorable presidents. This comprehensive bibliography on Clinton will provide students with information from his childhood, his pre-presidential career, presidency (including assessments of it) and the beginning of his post-presidential life. Key access points to this information are provided in the Table of Contents and detailed author and subject indexes. Also included, is an invited essay providing an overview of the Clinton presidency and an extensive chronology of significant events.
The second edition of this bestselling title provides the most up-to-date comprehensive review of all aspects of biomaterials science by providing a balanced, insightful approach to learning biomaterials. This reference integrates a historical perspective of materials engineering principles with biological interactions of biomaterials. Also provided within are regulatory and ethical issues in addition to future directions of the field, and a state-of-the-art update of medical and biotechnological applications. All aspects of biomaterials science are thoroughly addressed, from tissue engineering to cochlear prostheses and drug delivery systems. Over 80 contributors from academia, government and industry detail the principles of cell biology, immunology, and pathology. Focus within pertains to the clinical uses of biomaterials as components in implants, devices, and artificial organs. This reference also touches upon their uses in biotechnology as well as the characterization of the physical, chemical, biochemical and surface properties of these materials. - Provides comprehensive coverage of principles and applications of all classes of biomaterials - Integrates concepts of biomaterials science and biological interactions with clinical science and societal issues including law, regulation, and ethics - Discusses successes and failures of biomaterials applications in clinical medicine and the future directions of the field - Cover the broad spectrum of biomaterial compositions including polymers, metals, ceramics, glasses, carbons, natural materials, and composites - Endorsed by the Society for Biomaterials
The value of true belief has played a central role in history of philosophy—consider Socrates' slogan that the unexamined life is not worth living, and Aristotle's claim that everyone naturally wants knowledge—as well as in contemporary epistemology, where questions about the value of knowledge have recently taken center stage. It has usually been assumed that accurate representation—true belief—is valuable, either instrumentally or for its own sake. In A Luxury of the Understanding, Allan Hazlett offers a critical study of that assumption, and of the main ways in which it can be defended. Hazlett defends the conclusion that true belief is at most sometimes valuable. In the first part of the book, he targets the view that true belief is normally better for us than false belief, and argues that false beliefs about ourselves—for example, unrealistic optimism about our futures and about other people, such as overly positive views of our friends—are often valuable vis-à-vis our wellbeing. In the second part, he targets the view that truth is "the aim of belief," and argues for anti-realism about the epistemic value of true belief. Together, these arguments comprise a challenge to the philosophical assumption of the value of true belief, and suggest an alternative picture, on which the fact that some people love truth is all there is to "the value of true belief".
Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.
This new edition of Pediatric Gastrointestinal Disease is dedicated to the maintenance of a comprehensive approach to the practice of Pediatric Gastroenterology. Considered to be the definitive reference work, this fourth edition has been extensively reviewed. As a result, the size and content of various sections have been modified and new ......
Combining statistical analysis with well-written narrative history, this re-evaluation of the 1928 presidential election gives a vivid portrait of the candidates and the campaign. Lichtman has based his study primarily on a statistical analysis of data from that election and the presidential elections from 1916 to 1940 for all the 2,058 counties outside the former Confederate South. Not relying exclusively on the results of his quantitative analysis, however, Lichtman has also made an exhaustive survey of previous scholarship and contemporary accounts of the 1928 election. He discusses and challenges previous interpretations, especially the ethnocultural and pluralist interpretations and the application of critical election theory to the election. In disputing this theory, which claims that 1928 was a realigning election in which the coalitions were formed that dominated future elections, Lichtman determines that 1928 was an aberration with little impact on later political patterns.
This paper considers the possible effects of making inferences about individuals from aggregate data. It assumes a knowledge of regression analysis, and explores the utility of techniques designed to make the inferences in causal modelling more reliable, including a comparison between ecological regression models and ecological correlation.
The Hebrew Messiah: The Glory and Triumph of Israel takes seriously the witness in the Tanakthe books of teaching, the prophets, and the writingsthat Judaism receives as its Scripture. It listens to that witness to discover the truth of the Hebrew Messiah. Drawing upon study inspired by an intense interest to explore and appreciate the riches of Judaism, Allan Russell Juriansz has poured his findings into this exploration of the crucial role of Ha-Mashiach, the Messiah, in the Tanaks works that span a millennium of Jewish life and reflection. The exploration of The Hebrew Messiah begins by sketching out the contemporary scholarly climate in Judaism. Then it conducts a detailed survey of the witness to the Messiah in the Tanak, particularly in its prophetic writings. Next, it examines the place of this witness to the Hebrew Messiah in the life of modern Jewry. Finally, The Hebrew Messiah concludes by celebrating the good news that Ha-Mashiach is the glory and triumph of Israel. The Hebrew Messiah: The Glory and Triumph of Israel will satisfy the curiosity of all who desire to know how intimately and extensively the witness to the Messiah is woven through the tapestry of the Tanak. It will speak to members of the modern Jewish community who desire to take a fresh look at the foundations of their faith. Finally, it will offer Christians the blueprint for their understanding of the Messiah available to them. He is the Hebrew Messiah, Israels glory and triumph.
For over three decades, Allan N. Schore has authored numerous volumes, chapters, and articles on regulation theory, a biopsychosocial model of the development, psychopathogenesis, and treatment of the implicit subjective self. The theory is grounded in the integration of psychology, psychiatry, and neuroscience, and it is now being used by both clinicians to update psychotherapeutic models and by researchers to generate research. First published in 1994, this pioneering volume represented the inaugural expression of his interdisciplinary model, and has since been hailed by a number of scientific and clinical disciplines as a groundbreaking and paradigm-shifting work. This volume appeared at a time when the problem of emotion, ignored for most of the last century, was finally beginning to be addressed by science, including the emergent field of affective neuroscience. After a century of the dominance of the verbal left brain, it presented a detailed characterization of the early developing right brain and it unique social, emotional, and survival functions, not only in infancy but across all later stages of the human life span. It also offered a scientifically testable and clinical relevant model of the development of the human unconscious mind. Affect Regulation and the Origin of the Self acts as a keystone and foundation for all of Schore’s later writings, as every subsequent book, article, and chapter that followed represented expansions of this seminal work.
The essential resource for success in special education Educators face major challenges when addressing the needs of students with disabilities. This includes understanding a complex legal field: special education law. Special Education and the Law, Fourth Edition: A Guide for Practitioners is the ultimate for busy educators. Osborne and Russo, past presidents of the Educational Law Association, are experts in translating legalese into language that educators can understand. They have created a resource that examines legislation and interprets the statutes and their regulations in a reader-friendly format. Major topics include rights of access to public education, procedural due process, placement requirements, delivery of related services, discipline of students with disabilities, and remedies for failure to adhere to the law. With a preventative approach to litigation that separates it from other publications, this book features: Updates on legal developments from the almost-1000 federal and state cases decided since publication of the third edition in 2014 Coverage of IDEA, ADA, FAPE, 504, discipline, IEPs, LRE, parental considerations, public vs. private school considerations, and attorney fees A focus on federal and state interpretations With its user-friendly format, this resource will help educators focus on their core competency: providing exemplary education to students with special needs.
Good qualitative research can help sport management researchers and industry professionals solve difficult problems and better understand their organisations, stakeholders and performance. Now in a fully revised and extended new edition, this book is a user-friendly introduction to qualitative methods in sport management. Covering the full research process from research planning to reporting results, this edition includes expanded coverage of cutting-edge areas including digital and social media research, critical realism, and social network analysis. The book examines the reflective and interrogative processes required for developing effective qualitative research questions and includes a deeper discussion of ontology and epistemology in the light of today’s rapidly changing society. It takes the reader step-by-step through essential and emerging qualitative methods, from actor network theory and ethnography to computer-assisted data analysis and sampling typologies. Every chapter includes examples of real qualitative research, including shorter "research briefs" and extended case studies, reflecting the exciting qualitative research that is currently occurring in sport business and management, and highlighting the links between research and sport management practice. This is essential reading for courses in sport management, sport business, sport policy, sport marketing, sport media, and communications. It provides students, researchers, and practitioners with the knowledge and skills to undertake qualitative research while deepening their understanding of how the social world can be perceived and interpreted through a particular theoretical lens. Useful online materials include recommended readings and PowerPoint slides.
Long regarded as “the book” in the field for in-depth learning as well as decision support at the point of care, Primary Care Medicine, 8th Edition, continues its tradition as a comprehensive, evidence-based, action-oriented information resource. Presented in companion electronic format updated quarterly, its problem-based orientation spans the full spectrum of problems encountered in adult primary care practice. Chapters address screening, diagnosis, prevention and management, including indications for referral and approaches to patient education and shared decision making. Clear, practical, bulleted recommendations and an extensive annotated bibliography of best references follow detailed discussions of pathophysiology, clinical presentation, differential diagnosis, and strategies for workup and treatment. Now with its 40th-anniversary edition, this exceptional text is a must-have resource for physicians, nurse practitioners, physician assistants, students, and residents- offering the most complete and up-to-date resource available for primary care education and practice.
This book analyses the politics of othering in the USA and Canada from the nineteenth century to the present day. It outlines the basis in human behaviour for ‘disliking the unlike’, which can take the form of ethnocentrism, racism and xenophobia, and shows how politicians take advantage of this human tendency. Seven case studies explore the use of political othering towards minority groups: Indigenous peoples, Jews, Japanese, those with left-wing views, LGBTQ individuals, Blacks, and Muslims. The book argues that prior to World War II, and with the significant exception of Blacks, the politics of othering was stronger in Canada than in the USA. After World War II, the situation reversed and the politics of othering was practiced more in the USA than in Canada. Lastly, the book explains how public policy and international issues prompted this change, discusses future trends in political othering, and offers ideas for promoting inclusion over othering.
Harwood-Nuss' Clinical Practice of Emergency Medicine presents a clinically focused and evidence-based summary of emergency medicine. Chapters are templated to include the clinical presentation, differential diagnosis, evaluation, management and disposition, with highlighted critical interventions and common pitfalls. Management and disposition are especially critical in the emergency department, and their emphasis is unique to Harwood-Nuss. Often, a diagnosis can not be made, given the constraints of an ED evaluation; thus, effecive management of the patient, with or without a confirmed diagnosis, is key. Also distinct to Harwood-Nuss is the High-Risk Chief Complaints section, which covers the key presentations in the ED: chest pain, abdominal pain, shortness of breath, altered mental status. When patients present in the ED, they don't present with a known diagnosis; this chapter walks the physician through possible differential diagnoses and the evaluation and management of these patients so that they can be stabilized and treated quickly and effectively.
Launched in honour of President Obama's inaugural, this book was written during the most remarkable political season in American history. The author visited all major presidential campaign offices in New York and New Hampshire, attended the presidential debates and was a commentator for PBS and National Public Radio. Allan also attended the historic Democratic convention and toured most presidential libraries.
Fitzsimmons "examines the science, philosophy, and law of ecosystems management and shows how efforts to make federal protection of ecosystems the centerpiece of national environmental policy are driven by religious veneration of Mother Earth wrapped in a veil of weak science.
Think that Richard Nixon lost the 1960 presidential election because he sweated on TV? Or that John Kerry was “swiftboated” out of the presidency in 2004? Think again! In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2012.
This story forms the psychological study of a young man who is both spiritually and morally down and out. He is sick of modern frivolities and seeks refuge in the Canadian Rockies. Here he meets the girl of his heart, who infuses new hope and life into his erstwhile jaded existence.
Examines the origins, development, and achievements of conservatism in the United States, from the birth of the modern right in the 1920s through the restoration of the conservative consensus at the end of the twentieth century.
A radical case for the repeal of the 2nd Amendment as the only way to control gun violence in America There's an average of one mass shooting per day in the United States. Given the ineffectiveness of the gun control lobby, it's time for a strategy with spine. In Repeal the Second Amendment, Allan J. Lichtman has written the first book that uses history, legal theory and up-to-the-minute data to make a compelling case for the amendment’s repeal in order to create a clear road to sensible gun control in the US. Repeal the Second Amendment explores both the true history and current interpretation of the Second Amendment to expose the NRA’s blatant historical manipulations and irresponsible fake news releases. Lichtman looks at the history of firearms and gun regulations from colonial times to the present to explain how a historically forgotten sentence in the Constitution has become a flash point of recent politics that benefits only the gun industry, their lobbyists, and the politicians on their payroll. He probes court decisions and the effective lobbying and public relations strategies of the gun lobby as well as the ineffectiveness of the gun control movement for lessons in doing better. What emerges is a clear and cogent plan--repeal and replace the Second Amendment without taking guns away from anyone who has them now--to make the US a safer place. It's time to Repeal the Second Amendment, and Allan Lichtman is the man to bring this radical plan to America.
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