We examine fluctuations in crypto markets and their relationships to global equity markets and US monetary policy. We identify a single price component—which we label the “crypto factor”—that explains 80% of variation in crypto prices, and show that its increasing correlation with equity markets coincided with the entry of institutional investors into crypto markets. We also document that, as for equities, US Fed tightening reduces the crypto factor through the risk-taking channel—in contrast to claims that crypto assets provide a hedge against market risk. Finally, we show that a stylized heterogeneous-agent model with time-varying aggregate risk aversion can explain our empirical findings, and highlights possible spillovers from crypto to equity markets if the participation of institutional investors ever became large.
We examine the role of market characteristics and timing in explaining observed heterogeneity in VAT pass-through. We first extend existing theory to characterize the roles of imperfect competition and product differentiation, then investigate these relationships empirically using a panel of 14 Eurozone countries between 1999 and 2013. We find important roles for product market regulation and product quality, and little impact of advance announcement of reforms. Our findings have important implications for policy-makers considering VAT rate adjustments, by illuminating which of the consumers or the producers would experience the brunt of a reform across different settings.
We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then use local projection models to assess the responses to such shocks of GDP growth (revenue) in other countries (firms). We find that: (i) both supply and demand slowdowns are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue; (ii) negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China; and (iii) spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.
Recent failures of US banks highlight that large liability withdrawals can damage capital positions—i.e., that liquidity risk and solvency risk interact. A simple risk assessment for banks in a wide group of countries finds sizable exposure to this interaction. This varies significantly across banks—primarily reflecting differences in cash buffers, capitalization, securities holdings and exposure to market risk—and is highly concentrated. Vulnerability is generally greater for banks in AEs due to lower cash buffers, securities holdings and capitalization. Within AEs—unlike in EMs—larger banks are most exposed, due to greater wholesale funding and thinner capital buffers. Estimated aggregate losses are substantial in some countries, reflecting a range of recent shocks.
We develop a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous currency substitution and financial frictions to examine the impact on a small developing economy of a stablecoin issued in a large foreign economy. The stablecoin provides households in the domestic economy with liquidity services and an additional hedge against domestic inflation. Its introduction amplifies currency substitution, reducing bank intermediation and weakening monetary policy transmission, worsening the impacts of recessionary shocks and increasing banking sector stress. Capital controls raise stablecoin adoption as a means of circumvention, increasing exposure to spillovers from foreign shocks. Unlike a domestic CBDC, a ban on stablecoin payments can alleviate these effects.
To explore risks associated with digital money, this Fintech Note simulates the hypothetical large-scale adoption of crypto assets in a model of a small open economy. The model highlights that a foreign-currency denominated stablecoin can amplify currency substitution and capital outflows in response to negative shocks. Monetary policy transmission is also weakened, forcing the central bank to adjust interest rates more aggressively in response to shocks. Capital flow management measures—if they do not constrain crypto flows—further incentivize households to hold foreign stablecoins for circumvention purposes, exacerbating the negative effects of crypto adoption on the macroeconomy. This underscores that widespread crypto adoption can weaken policymakers’ available options for mitigating external shocks and potentially increase cross-country spillovers.
We examine fluctuations in crypto markets and their relationships to global equity markets and US monetary policy. We identify a single price component—which we label the “crypto factor”—that explains 80% of variation in crypto prices, and show that its increasing correlation with equity markets coincided with the entry of institutional investors into crypto markets. We also document that, as for equities, US Fed tightening reduces the crypto factor through the risk-taking channel—in contrast to claims that crypto assets provide a hedge against market risk. Finally, we show that a stylized heterogeneous-agent model with time-varying aggregate risk aversion can explain our empirical findings, and highlights possible spillovers from crypto to equity markets if the participation of institutional investors ever became large.
We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then use local projection models to assess the responses to such shocks of GDP growth (revenue) in other countries (firms). We find that: (i) both supply and demand slowdowns are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue; (ii) negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China; and (iii) spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.
Recent failures of US banks highlight that large liability withdrawals can damage capital positions—i.e., that liquidity risk and solvency risk interact. A simple risk assessment for banks in a wide group of countries finds sizable exposure to this interaction. This varies significantly across banks—primarily reflecting differences in cash buffers, capitalization, securities holdings and exposure to market risk—and is highly concentrated. Vulnerability is generally greater for banks in AEs due to lower cash buffers, securities holdings and capitalization. Within AEs—unlike in EMs—larger banks are most exposed, due to greater wholesale funding and thinner capital buffers. Estimated aggregate losses are substantial in some countries, reflecting a range of recent shocks.
We develop a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous currency substitution and financial frictions to examine the impact on a small developing economy of a stablecoin issued in a large foreign economy. The stablecoin provides households in the domestic economy with liquidity services and an additional hedge against domestic inflation. Its introduction amplifies currency substitution, reducing bank intermediation and weakening monetary policy transmission, worsening the impacts of recessionary shocks and increasing banking sector stress. Capital controls raise stablecoin adoption as a means of circumvention, increasing exposure to spillovers from foreign shocks. Unlike a domestic CBDC, a ban on stablecoin payments can alleviate these effects.
To explore risks associated with digital money, this Fintech Note simulates the hypothetical large-scale adoption of crypto assets in a model of a small open economy. The model highlights that a foreign-currency denominated stablecoin can amplify currency substitution and capital outflows in response to negative shocks. Monetary policy transmission is also weakened, forcing the central bank to adjust interest rates more aggressively in response to shocks. Capital flow management measures—if they do not constrain crypto flows—further incentivize households to hold foreign stablecoins for circumvention purposes, exacerbating the negative effects of crypto adoption on the macroeconomy. This underscores that widespread crypto adoption can weaken policymakers’ available options for mitigating external shocks and potentially increase cross-country spillovers.
We examine the role of market characteristics and timing in explaining observed heterogeneity in VAT pass-through. We first extend existing theory to characterize the roles of imperfect competition and product differentiation, then investigate these relationships empirically using a panel of 14 Eurozone countries between 1999 and 2013. We find important roles for product market regulation and product quality, and little impact of advance announcement of reforms. Our findings have important implications for policy-makers considering VAT rate adjustments, by illuminating which of the consumers or the producers would experience the brunt of a reform across different settings.
This book describes effective methods for automatically analyzing a sentence, based on the syntactic and semantic characteristics of the elements that form it. To tackle ambiguities, the authors use selectional preferences (SP), which measure how well two words fit together semantically in a sentence. Today, many disciplines require automatic text analysis based on the syntactic and semantic characteristics of language and as such several techniques for parsing sentences have been proposed. Which is better? In this book the authors begin with simple heuristics before moving on to more complex methods that identify nouns and verbs and then aggregate modifiers, and lastly discuss methods that can handle complex subordinate and relative clauses. During this process, several ambiguities arise. SP are commonly determined on the basis of the association between a pair of words. However, in many cases, SP depend on more words. For example, something (such as grass) may be edible, depending on who is eating it (a cow?). Moreover, things such as popcorn are usually eaten at the movies, and not in a restaurant. The authors deal with these phenomena from different points of view.
When one thinks of the wars of the eighteenth century, one thinks of the significant clashes of great military powers: the War of the Spanish Succession and the Battles of Blenheim and Malplaquet, the Great Northern War and the Battles of Narva and Poltava, the War of the Austrian Succession and Fontenoy, the Seven Years War with Roßbach, Leuthen and Zorndorf, or the American War of Independence with Saratoga and Yorktown. All of these engagements appear again and again in the lists of the great battles of world history, and there are reasons why they deserve a place in them. Yet none of them brought an end to the war in which they were fought. Not so the Battle of Kesselsdorf, which is largely forgotten today and will probably never find its way into an anthology of world- historically significant battles yet surely deserves such a place. For the immediate consequence of the victory of the Prussian army under Leopold von Anhalt-Dessau over a Saxon army on the heights near Kesselsdorf was the peace agreement at Dresden. In it, Austria once again renounced its claims to the province of Silesia, which had been lost to Prussia in the First Silesian War. In addition, Prussia rose to the rank of the great European powers and became the regional hegemon in northern Germany, while ambitious Electoral Saxony lost considerable political importance in the Empire and in Europe.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Text Processing, held in February 2006. The 43 revised full papers and 16 revised short papers presented together with three invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 176 submissions. The papers are structured into two parts and organized in topical sections on computational linguistics research.
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