Aleksandra Zdzienicka's Books

Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Financial Conditions

Evidence from the United States

By: Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Ms.Sally Chen,Federico Diaz Kalan,Stefan Laseen,Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

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Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Financial Conditions

Evidence from the United States

By: Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Ms.Sally Chen,Federico Diaz Kalan,Stefan Laseen,Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

The Global Financial Crisis has reopened discussions on the role of the monetary policy in preserving financial stability. Determining whether monetary policy affects financial variables domestically—especially compared to the effects of macroprudential policies— and across borders, is crucial in this context. This paper looks into these issues using U.S. exogenous monetary policy shocks and macroprudential policy measures. Estimates indicate that monetary policy shocks have significant and persistent effects on financial conditions and can attenuate long-term financial instability. In contrast, the impact of macroprudential policy measures is generally more immediate but shorter-lasting. Also, while an exogenous increase in U.S. monetary policy rates tends to reduce credit and house prices in other countries—with the effects varying with country-specific characteristics—an increase driven by improved U.S. economic conditions tends to have the opposite effect. Finally, we do not find evidence of cross-border spillover effects associated with U.S. macroprudential policies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513534998

ISBN 13

9781513534992

The New Normal

A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Minsuk Kim,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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The New Normal

A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Minsuk Kim,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Total factor productivity growth was stagnant or slowing in many advanced countries even prior to the crisis. This paper documents sector-level productivity patterns across advanced economies prior to the crisis and examines the role of product and labor market rigidities as well as innovation and investments in information technology and human capital in driving productivity differences across sectors and countries. Since productivity payoffs of reforms evolve over time, we also focus on large changes in the structural indicators examine their dynamic impact on productivity, employment, and output. Our results suggest that reform priorities depend on country-specific settings, including the scale of specific policy distortions and the distance from the technology frontier. Productivity gains from reforms are large and materialize predominantly in the medium term, with some important variations across industries and countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498345719

ISBN 13

9781498345712

Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

By: Ms.Sally Chen,Minsuk Kim,Marijn Otte,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

By: Ms.Sally Chen,Minsuk Kim,Marijn Otte,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Balance sheet recessions have been a drag on activity after the Global Financial Crisis, underscoring the important role of balance sheet adjustment for resuming sustained growth. In this paper we examine private sector deleveraging experiences across 36 advanced and emerging economies countries since 1960. We consider the common features and divergent experiences of deleveraging episodes across countries, and analyze empirically the impact of different aspects of deleveraging during the bust phase of leverage cycles on subsequent medium-term growth. The results suggest that larger and quicker unwinding of non-financial sector debt overhangs is associated with sizable medium-term output gains, and that policies should focus on facilitating up-front balance sheet adjustment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498333400

ISBN 13

9781498333405

The Euro Area Crisis

Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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The Euro Area Crisis

Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area and whether a supranational fiscal risk sharing mechanism could insure countries against very severe downturns. Using an unbalanced panel of 15 euro area countries over the period 1979-2010, the results of the paper show that: (i) the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area is significantly lower than in existing federations (such as the U.S. and Germany) and (ii) it falls sharply in severe downturns just when it is needed most; (iii) a supranational fiscal stabilization mechanism, financed by a relatively small contribution, would be able to fully insure euro area countries against very severe, persistent and unanticipated downturns.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484334205

ISBN 13

9781484334201

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

By: Ms.Deniz O Igan,Hala Moussawi,Alexander F. Tieman,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr.Paolo Mauro

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The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

By: Ms.Deniz O Igan,Hala Moussawi,Alexander F. Tieman,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr.Paolo Mauro

We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007–17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate this new dataset and estimate the fiscal impact of interventions, including the value of asset holdings remaining in state hands at end-2017. Direct public support to financial institutions amounted to $1.6 trillion ($3.5 trillion including guarantees), with larger amounts allocated to lower capitalized and less profitable banks. As of end-2017, only a few countries had fully divested the initial support they provided during the crisis. Public holdings were divested faster in better capitalized, more profitable, and more liquid banks, and in countries where the economy recovered faster. In countries where the government stake remained high relative to the initial intervention, private investment and credit growth were slower, financial access, depth, efficiency, and competition were worse, and financial stability improved less.

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ISBN 10

1513508334

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9781513508337

Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Laura Jaramillo,Pooja Karnane,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Laura Jaramillo,Pooja Karnane,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

This paper examines the role of tax policy reforms in enhancing fiscal shock smoothing in a panel of 13 OECD economies during the period 1980-2017. The results suggest that tax reforms, in particular those that broaden the tax base, significantly enhance the ability of fiscal policy to mitigate the impact of growth shocks on disposable income. We find that the magnitude of shock smoothing increases from an average of 2 percent to 3-31⁄2 percent following the reform. The effects are considerably higher for tax base than tax rate changes, and also higher for indirect tax than direct tax changes. The effects are symmetric—that is, the increase in shock smoothing following a reform expanding the tax base (rate) is similar to the decline in shock smoothing after a reform narrowing the tax base (rate). Tax elasticity, collection efficiency, and the progressivity of the tax system are important channels through which tax reforms affect fiscal stabilization.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

149831709X

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9781498317092

Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

This paper provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies. It finds that a one percent of GDP unanticipated increase in the government budget balance improves, on average, the current account balance by 0.8 percentage point of GDP. This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of fiscal impulse, such as the cyclically-adjusted budget balance. The results point to heterogeneity across countries and over time. The effect tends to be larger: (i) during recessions; in countries (ii) that are more open to trade; (iii) that have less flexible exchange rate regimes; and (iv) with lower initial public debt-to-GDP ratios.

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ISBN 10

1484371526

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9781484371527

Strengthening the Euro Area

The Role of National Structural Reforms in Building Resilience

By: Mr.John C Bluedorn,Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Daniel Garcia-Macia,Yi Ji,Davide Malacrino,Mr.Haonan Qu,Jesse Siminitz,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Strengthening the Euro Area

The Role of National Structural Reforms in Building Resilience

By: Mr.John C Bluedorn,Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Daniel Garcia-Macia,Yi Ji,Davide Malacrino,Mr.Haonan Qu,Jesse Siminitz,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Cross-country differences in economic resilience—in an economy’s ability to withstand and adjust to shocks—remain significant in the euro area. In part, the differences reflect the lack of a national nominal exchange rate as a mechanism to adjust to shocks. The IMF staff has argued that union-wide architectural changes such as the banking union, the capital markets union, and a central fiscal capacity can help foster greater international risk sharing. Yet even these changes cannot insure against all shocks. National policies thus have a vital role to play. This IMF staff discussion note analyzes how national structural policies can help euro area countries better deal with economic shocks. Using a mix of empirical and modeling approaches, the note finds that growth-enhancing reforms to labor and product market regulations, tailored to country-specific circumstances, would help individual euro area economies weather adverse shocks. Higher-quality insolvency regimes are associated with more efficient factor reallocation following a shock. The note also finds that structural and cyclical policies interact. Greater rigidities make economies more fragile, putting a higher burden on fiscal policy. This is especially true for members of a monetary union. Countries should build fiscal space in good times and tackle rigidities, reducing their need for countercyclical policies in bad times while making countercyclical policies more effective when deployed.

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149831970X

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9781498319706

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Small Developing States with Climate Vulnerabilities: Cost and Financing

By: International Monetary Fund

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Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Small Developing States with Climate Vulnerabilities: Cost and Financing

By: International Monetary Fund

Small Developing States (SDS) face substantial challenges in achieving sustainable development. Many of these challenges relate to the small size and limited diversification of their economies. SDS are also among the most vulnerable countries to the impact of climate change and natural disasters. Meeting SDS sustainable development goals goes hand-in-hand with building their climate resilience. But the additional costs to meet development and resilience objectives are substantial and difficult to finance. This work adapts the IMF SDG Costing methodology to capture the unique characteristics and challenges of climate-vulnerable SDS. It also zooms into financing options, estimating domestic tax potential and discussing the possibility of accessing ‘climate funds.’

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ISBN 10

1513571575

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9781513571577

Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

By: Chuling Chen,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Jay Rappaport,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

By: Chuling Chen,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Jay Rappaport,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

This paper studies the impact of tax-based consolidations on reelection outcomes. Using a granular database of tax-based consolidations for a panel of 10 OECD countries over the last 40 years, we find that tax reforms are politically costly but some reforms are costlier than others. Measures aimed primarily at reducing existing deficits and debt are costlier than tax consolidation policies for improving long-term growth prospects. Electoral costs are particularly high for broad-based indirect tax and corporate tax reforms. Voters tend to penalize governments less if tax consolidations are announced early in the government’s term or if the government has a strong political mandate. Favorable economic conditions increase public support for tax-based consolidations. Personal income tax reforms are electorally salient if the reforms are frontloaded, announced during recessions, and in less progressive tax systems.

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1513525336

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9781513525334

Strengthening the West African Economic and Monetary Union

The Role of Fiscal and Market Institutions in Economic Stabilization

By: Olivier Basdevant,Patrick A. Imam,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Strengthening the West African Economic and Monetary Union

The Role of Fiscal and Market Institutions in Economic Stabilization

By: Olivier Basdevant,Patrick A. Imam,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries face a well-known dilemma between the need to provide shock-smoothing mechanisms and the lack of adequate mechanisms to do so. WAEMU countries are subject to frequent and, to a large extent, asymmetric shocks. They have remained poorly diversified and vulnerable to external shocks, such as changing weather conditions. In addition to limited shock-smoothing mechanisms at the regional level, WAEMU members’ ability to respond to shocks through national policies is also constrained by limited fiscal space and the need to preserve external stability—not only at the national level but also at the union level. In this context, developing a well-defined fiscal rule framework at the national level would help to build the necessary fiscal space for shock-smoothing. In addition, the development of specific shock-smoothing mechanisms—including a more developed and integrated financial sector—would also be critical. In addition, promoting financial development is also a challenge, which needs to be addressed in tandem with an adequate surveillance system. Some of these challenges have been faced by other monetary unions, such as the euro area.

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1513567330

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9781513567334

Monetary Policy and Labor Market Gender Gaps

By: Valentina Flamini,Diego B. P. Gomes,Bihong Huang,Ms. Lisa L Kolovich,Aina Puig,Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Monetary Policy and Labor Market Gender Gaps

By: Valentina Flamini,Diego B. P. Gomes,Bihong Huang,Ms. Lisa L Kolovich,Aina Puig,Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka

We study the effects of monetary policy shocks on employment gender gaps in a panel of 22 countries using quarterly data from 1990 to 2019. Our results show that men’s employment falls more than women’s after contractionary monetary policy shocks, narrowing the employment gender gap over time. Two factors contribute to explaining this heterogeneous effect. First, a larger impact of monetary policy shocks on employment in the industry sector that employs more men. Second, the larger response of the employment gap in the sector (services) that employs the largest share of men and women. In terms of labor market adjustment, the narrowing of the gender employment gap is initially driven by a reduction in the gender unemployment gaps that, over time, results in an adjustment in the gender labor force participation gap—with men’s labor force participation dropping more than women’s. The effects are larger in countries with more flexible labor market regulations, higher gender wage gaps, and lower informal women’s employment compared to men’s. Finally, the effects are also larger for contractionary monetary policy shocks and during expansions.

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ISBN 13

9798400257292

China Spillovers

New Evidence From Time-Varying Estimates

By: Davide Furceri,João Tovar Jalles,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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China Spillovers

New Evidence From Time-Varying Estimates

By: Davide Furceri,João Tovar Jalles,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and—since the recent global financial crisis—a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its economy away from investment and exports and toward consumption, its GDP growth slowed significantly—partly reversing the country’s contribution to global output and trade growth—and is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term. There is little consensus regarding the consequences of a China’s growth slowdown for the rest of the world, with some arguing that a significant slowdown in China may have large implications and possibly lead to a worldwide recession if the “rebalancing” process is not well managed, and others suggesting that even a significant slowdown in China is unlikely to have large global effects, as its role in the world economy is still limited This note contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing how growth shocks in China affect particular regions and country groups and how the impact and key transmission channels of these growth shocks have increased over time. It finds that historically, the average impact of growth shocks in China on global output has been statistically significant but limited, but since the early 2000s, the magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased. Trade linkages remain the main transmission channels, with larger effects for net commodity exporters and countries mostly exporting manufacturing goods. Also, spillover effects tend to be larger during periods of high global uncertainty and have been positively associated with an increase in the share of industry in total value in China, which suggests an important role of the “rebalancing” process.

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1475546637

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9781475546637

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality

By: Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality

By: Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

This paper provides new evidence of the effect of monetary policy shocks on income inequality. Using a measure of unanticipated changes in policy rates for a panel of 32 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 1990-2013, the paper finds that contractionary (expansionary) monetary actions increase (reduce) income inequality. The effect, however, varies over time, depending on the type of the shocks (tightening versus expansionary monetary policy) and the state of the business cycle, and across countries depending on the share of labor income and redistribution policies. In particular, we find that the effect is larger for positive monetary policy shocks, especially during expansions. Looking across countries, we find that the effect is larger in countries with higher labor share of income and smaller redistribution policies. Finally, while an unexpected increase in policy rates increases inequality, changes in policy rates driven by an increase in growth are associated with lower inequality.

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International Monetary Fund

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1475568355

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9781475568356

How Costly Are Debt Crises?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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How Costly Are Debt Crises?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.

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1463926618

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9781463926618

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality

By: Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality

By: Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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1475568355

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9781475568356

Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Laura Jaramillo,Pooja Karnane,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Laura Jaramillo,Pooja Karnane,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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149831709X

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9781498317092

Responding to Shocks and Maintaining Stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

By: Ms.Christina Kolerus,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Mr.Ermal Hitaj,Mr.Douglas J Shapiro

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Responding to Shocks and Maintaining Stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

By: Ms.Christina Kolerus,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Mr.Ermal Hitaj,Mr.Douglas J Shapiro

The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), like other monetary unions, faces a number of challenges in dealing with macroeconomic shocks. The region experiences a large number of exogenous shocks: climate-related (e.g., droughts, floods), with a heavy toll on populations and agriculture, but also economic (e.g., terms of trade), with a large impact on key sectors and the cost of living. More generally business cycle synchronization within the WAEMU seems low. Addressing these shocks, while preserving the stability of the union, is therefore a critical issue in the WAEMU.This paper discusses these issues and suggests possible reforms.

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148434118X

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9781484341186

Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Financial Conditions

Evidence from the United States

By: Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Ms.Sally Chen,Federico Diaz Kalan,Stefan Laseen,Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

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Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Financial Conditions

Evidence from the United States

By: Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Ms.Sally Chen,Federico Diaz Kalan,Stefan Laseen,Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

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1513519158

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9781513519159

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Small Developing States with Climate Vulnerabilities: Cost and Financing

By: International Monetary Fund

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Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Small Developing States with Climate Vulnerabilities: Cost and Financing

By: International Monetary Fund

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1513571575

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9781513571577

Monetary Policy and Labor Market Gender Gaps

By: Valentina Flamini,Diego B. P. Gomes,Bihong Huang,Ms. Lisa L Kolovich,Aina Puig,Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Monetary Policy and Labor Market Gender Gaps

By: Valentina Flamini,Diego B. P. Gomes,Bihong Huang,Ms. Lisa L Kolovich,Aina Puig,Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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9798400257292

Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

By: Chuling Chen,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Jay Rappaport,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

By: Chuling Chen,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Jay Rappaport,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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1513521535

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9781513521534

The New Normal

A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Minsuk Kim,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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The New Normal

A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Minsuk Kim,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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International Monetary Fund

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1498345719

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9781498345712

The Euro Area Crisis

Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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The Euro Area Crisis

Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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1616354100

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9781616354107

Strengthening the Euro Area

The Role of National Structural Reforms in Building Resilience

By: Mr.John C Bluedorn,Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Daniel Garcia-Macia,Yi Ji,Davide Malacrino,Mr.Haonan Qu,Jesse Siminitz,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Strengthening the Euro Area

The Role of National Structural Reforms in Building Resilience

By: Mr.John C Bluedorn,Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Daniel Garcia-Macia,Yi Ji,Davide Malacrino,Mr.Haonan Qu,Jesse Siminitz,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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149831970X

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9781498319706

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

By: Ms.Deniz O Igan,Hala Moussawi,Alexander F. Tieman,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr.Paolo Mauro

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The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

By: Ms.Deniz O Igan,Hala Moussawi,Alexander F. Tieman,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka,Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr.Paolo Mauro

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1513509438

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9781513509433

Strengthening the West African Economic and Monetary Union

The Role of Fiscal and Market Institutions in Economic Stabilization

By: Olivier Basdevant,Patrick A. Imam,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Strengthening the West African Economic and Monetary Union

The Role of Fiscal and Market Institutions in Economic Stabilization

By: Olivier Basdevant,Patrick A. Imam,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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1513572792

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9781513572796

Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

By: Ms.Sally Chen,Minsuk Kim,Marijn Otte,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

By: Ms.Sally Chen,Minsuk Kim,Marijn Otte,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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1498333400

ISBN 13

9781498333405

Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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International Monetary Fund

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1484364007

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9781484364000

How Costly Are Debt Crises?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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How Costly Are Debt Crises?

By: Davide Furceri,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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International Monetary Fund

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1463926618

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9781463926618

Book's by Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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