Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’ Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values. A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size. Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
A new, comprehensively updated edition of the acclaimed textbook by F.H. Attix (Introduction to Radiological Physics and Radiation Dosimetry) taking into account the substantial developments in dosimetry since its first edition. This monograph covers charged and uncharged particle interactions at a level consistent with the advanced use of the Monte Carlo method in dosimetry; radiation quantities, macroscopic behaviour and the characterization of radiation fields and beams are covered in detail. A number of chapters include addenda presenting derivations and discussions that offer new insight into established dosimetric principles and concepts. The theoretical aspects of dosimetry are given in the comprehensive chapter on cavity theory, followed by the description of primary measurement standards, ionization chambers, chemical dosimeters and solid state detectors. Chapters on applications include reference dosimetry for standard and small fields in radiotherapy, diagnostic radiology and interventional procedures, dosimetry of unsealed and sealed radionuclide sources, and neutron beam dosimetry. The topics are presented in a logical, easy-to-follow sequence and the text is supplemented by numerous illustrative diagrams, tables and appendices. For senior undergraduate- or graduate-level students and professionals.
Presenting a concise, basic introduction to modelling and computational chemistry this text includes relevant introductory material to ensure greater accessibility to the subject. Provides a comprehensive introduction to this evolving and developing field Focuses on MM, MC, and MD with an entire chapter devoted to QSAR and Discovery Chemistry. Includes many real chemical applications combined with worked problems and solutions provided in each chapter Ensures that up-to-date treatment of a variety of chemical modeling techniques are introduced.
Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and ‘Ethereal’) and Method (Analogy, Parametric and ‘Trusted Source’) and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate. This volume also underlines the importance of ‘data normalisation’ in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Normalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build. This book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an estimator can potentially exploit Benford’s Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates. With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Crystallization Process Systems gives a clear, concise, balanced and up to date presentation of crystallization and solid-liquid separation of the crystalline product. The information is presented in a coherent, concise and logical sequence based on the fundamentals of particulate crystallization processes as systems.By emphasising the analysis, design and operation of particulate crystallization processes as systems, the reader will be able to make a better judgement about the best, cheapest and most effective production method to use. Presents a coherent, concise and logical sequence based on the fundamentals of particulate crystallization processes as systemsEmphasis on the design and optimization of the crystallization processing system
Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis,
This is the most comprehensive guidebook to the state of Utah, with information on historic attractions, festivals, cultural events, outdoor activities, accommodations, and restaurants. 139 photos. 9 maps.
In nature, radiata pine is very localised and an obscure tree species despite the romantic character of much of its natural habitat. That obscure status and the lack of any reputation as a virgin timber slowed its due recognition as a commercial crop. Nevertheless, it has become a major plantation forest crop internationally. It has become the pre-eminent commercial forest species in New Zealand, Chile and Australia, with important plantings in some other countries. It consequently features prominently in the international trade in forest products, in addition to its importance in domestic markets of grower countries. Very fast growth, considerable site tolerances, ease of raising in nurseries and transplanting, and ease of processing and using its wood for a range of products and purposes, have made it the utility softwood of choice almost everywhere it can be grown satisfactorily. Abundant genetic variation and its amenability to other management inputs created special opportunities for its domestication. The story of its domestication forms a classic case history in the development of modern commercial forestry, with trailblazing in both genetic improvement and plantation management; this inevitably meant a learning process that provided instructive lessons, especially for tree breeders dealing with some other species. Paradoxically, the plantation monocultures have played and can continue to play an important role in protecting natural forests and other forms of biodiversity. Given the attractions of growing radiata pine, there were inevitably cases of overreach in planting it, with lessons to be learnt. Economic globalisation has meant globalisation of pests and disease organisms, and the scale on which radiata pine is grown has meant is has been the focus of various biotic alarms, none of which have proved catastrophic. Temptations, remain, however, to pay less than due attention to some aspects of risk management. The chapter structure of the book is based on historical periods, beginning long before any important human influences, and ending with a look into what the future might hold for the species and its role in human and ecological sustainability. Almost throughout, there has been complex interplay between the technical aspects, local social and economic factors, various types of institution, the enthusiasm and drive of some very influential individuals, and tides of economic ideology, threads that needed to be woven together to do the story justice.
In a career spanning six decades, director of photography Alan Hume has worked on over 100 films and television shows and progressed through the ranks from a young clapper boy to one of the best lighting cameramen in the business. From early films with David Lean, through the popular Carry On series, Amicus horror, four James Bonds, Star Wars: Return of the Jedi, A Fish Called Wanda, Shirley Valentine, Stepping Out, and others, Alan Hume has worked alongside some of the most acclaimed directors and producers and biggest film stars. The memoir, from his evacuation as a child in World War II to his retirement, includes a collection of rare photographs, both in front of and behind the camera. He explains technical details and insights of the industry while divulging anecdotes about celebrities and filmmaking. It concludes with a summary of the technological changes throughout his career and to the present, and a full filmography. With great good humor, Hume offers an incomparable tour behind the camera.
Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves (Volume IV of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) focuses in on Learning Curves, and the various tried and tested models of Wright, Crawford, DeJong, Towill-Bevis and others. It explores the differences and similarities between the various models and examines the key properties that Estimators and Forecasters can exploit. A discussion about Learning Curve Cost Drivers leads to the consideration of a little used but very powerful technique of Learning Curve modelling called Segmentation, which looks at an organisation’s complex learning curve as the product of multiple shallower learning curves. Perhaps the biggest benefit is that it simplifies the calculations in Microsoft Excel where there is a change in the rate of learning observed or expected. The same technique can be used to model and calibrate discontinuities in the learning process that result in setbacks and uplifts in time or cost. This technique is compared with other, better known techniques such as Anderlohr’s. Equivalent Unit Learning is another, relative new technique that can be used alongside traditional completed unit learning to give an early warning of changes in the rates of learning. Finally, a Learning Curve can be exploited to estimate the penalty of collaborative working across multiple partners. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists, as well as students of cost engineering.
This book sheds new light on the dynamical behaviour of electron spins in molecules containing two unpaired electrons (i.e. a radical pair). The quantum dynamics of these spins are made complicated by the interaction between the electrons and the many nuclear spins of the molecule; they are intractable using analytical techniques, and a naïve numerical diagonalization is not remotely possible using current computational resources. Hence, this book presents a new method for obtaining the exact quantum-mechanical dynamics of radical pairs with a modest number of nuclear spins. Readers will learn how a calculation that would take 13 years using conventional wavepacket propagation can now be done in 1 day, and will also discover a new semiclassical method for approximating the dynamics in the presence of many nuclear spins. The new methods covered in this book are shown to provide significant insights into three topical and diverse areas: charge recombination in molecular wires (which can be used in artificially mimicking photosynthesis), magnetoelectroluminescence in organic light-emitting diodes, and avian magnetoreception (how birds sense the Earth’s magnetic field in order to navigate).
Alan Pryce-Jones (1908-2000) had a gift for living, for moving between countries and occupations, and above all for enjoying himself throughout. His memoir offers a highly entertaining account of these varied peregrinations and preoccupations. After Eton and Oxford and a stint on the London Mercury he married and moved to Vienna, joined the army upon the outbreak of war, and after the collapse of France became involved in military intelligence work, returning to Vienna with the Army of Occupation. In peacetime he joined the staff of the Times Literary Supplement, where he would be editor for twelve years. After his second marriage he moved to New York where he was book critic for the Herald Tribune. 'There is charity, gaiety, toughness and good sense in this book.' Alan Massie, Times 'Engaging, stylish.' John Gross, Observer
Molecular Biology of the Hepatitis B Virus presents a comprehensive account of the various molecular aspects of the life cycle of the hepatitis B virus (HBV). Topics covered include the animal model systems, sequence data on the hepadnavirus genomes, the transcripts coded for the biral genome and sequence elements involved in regulating their expression, hepadnavirus replication, and analysis of the various HBV gene products and their role in virion synthesis and assembly. Other important features of the book include its discussions of the consequences of long term exposure to hepadnavirus infection and its association with hepatocellular carcinoma, the use of recombinant technologies in the generation of second generation vaccines, and the utilization of recombinant technologies to analyze an immune mediated disease. Researchers studying hepadnaviruses will find a wealth of information in this essential reference volume.
Once perceived as distant, cold, dark, and seemingly unknowable, Pluto had long been marked as the farthest and most unreachable frontier for solar system exploration. After Voyager accomplished its final planetary reconnaissance at Neptune in 1989, Pluto and its cohort in the Kuiper Belt beckoned as the missing puzzle piece for completing the first reconnaissance of our solar system. In the decades following Voyager, a mission to the Pluto system was not only imagined but also achieved, culminating with the historic 2015 flyby by the New Horizons spacecraft. Pluto and its satellite system (“the Pluto system”), including its largest moon, Charon, have been revealed to be worlds of enormous complexity that fantastically exceed preconceptions. The Pluto System After New Horizons seeks to become the benchmark for synthesizing our understanding of the Pluto system. The volume’s lead editor is S. Alan Stern, who also serves as NASA’s New Horizons Principal Investigator; co-editors Richard P. Binzel, William M. Grundy, Jeffrey M. Moore, and Leslie A. Young are all co-investigators on New Horizons. Leading researchers from around the globe have spent the last five years assimilating Pluto system flyby data returned from New Horizons. The chapters in this volume form an enduring foundation for ongoing study and understanding of the Pluto system. The volume also advances insights into the nature of dwarf planets and Kuiper Belt objects, providing a cornerstone for planning new missions that may return to the Pluto system and explore others of the myriad important worlds beyond Neptune.
Reflecting the growing volume of published work in this field, researchers will find this book an invaluable source of information on current methods and applications.
Albert Smith is one of the most famous Victorians of whom you've probably never heard. During his lifetime, he was a household name, thrilling audiences with his Ascent of Mont Blanc show at London's Egyptian Hall. An inveterate showman, Smith was also a doctor, journalist, raconteur, novelist, travel writer, and playwright. His many talents were outstripped only by his boundless self-belief and huge personality. Even Queen Victoria described him in her journal as "inimitable", an epithet Smith's contemporary Charles Dickens liked to reserve for himself. Although Smith died aged only 43, he managed to pack much incident into his short life. He was robbed by highwaymen in Italy, narrowly escaped death in a hot air ballooning accident, and dodged arrest in Paris during the June Days Uprising of 1848. He also got caught up in the row over Dickens's affair with Ellen Ternan. While his bumptiousness made Smith a divisive figure, many saw in him the Victorian ideal of the self-made man: energetic, imaginative, and ready to seize any new opportunity. As Alan McNee explains in this lively biography, it was his intrepid ascent of Mont Blanc in 1851 that propelled Smith to stardom. His subsequent show inspired 'Mont Blanc mania', encouraging participation in mountaineering as a popular pursuit. The Cockney Who Sold the Alps is a story of ambition, spectacle, and the fleeting nature of celebrity.
Join Alan Emmet on a tour of gardens that graced New England from just after the American Revolution into the 20th century. A Martha Stewart Decorative Arts Gift Book Choice for 1996.
The Worst Baseball Pitchers of All Time" offers a crop of very different players. These are the worst pitchers in major league baseball, according to a scientifically designed set of criteria that includes such statistics as losses minus wins, earned run average, and wins-above-team (well, in this case wins-below-team).
This will help us customize your experience to showcase the most relevant content to your age group
Please select from below
Login
Not registered?
Sign up
Already registered?
Success – Your message will goes here
We'd love to hear from you!
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.