Agustin Roitman's Books

The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries

By: Ara Stepanyan,Agustin Roitman,Gohar Minasyan,Ms.Dragana Ostojic,Mr.Natan P. Epstein

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The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries

By: Ara Stepanyan,Agustin Roitman,Gohar Minasyan,Ms.Dragana Ostojic,Mr.Natan P. Epstein

In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475541562

ISBN 13

9781475541564

Technology and the Future of Work

By: Adrian Peralta-Alva,Agustin Roitman

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Technology and the Future of Work

By: Adrian Peralta-Alva,Agustin Roitman

This paper uses a DSGE model to simulate the impact of technological change on labor markets and income distribution. It finds that technological advances offers prospects for stronger productivity and growth, but brings risks of increased income polarization. This calls for inclusive policies tailored to country-specific circumstances and preferences, such as investment in human capital to facilitate retooling of low-skilled workers so that they can partake in the gains of technological change, and redistributive policies (such as differentiated income tax cuts) to help reallocate gains. Policies are also needed to facilitate the process of adjustment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484379705

ISBN 13

9781484379707

News-based Sentiment Indicators

By: Chengyu Huang,Sean Simpson,Daria Ulybina,Agustin Roitman

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News-based Sentiment Indicators

By: Chengyu Huang,Sean Simpson,Daria Ulybina,Agustin Roitman

We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like “fear”, “risk”, “hedging”, “opinion”, and, “crisis”, as well as “positive” and “negative” sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess the performance of our sentiment indices as “news-based” early warning indicators (EWIs) for financial crises. We find that sentiment indices spike and/or trend up ahead of financial crises.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513523171

ISBN 13

9781513523170

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

By: Francesca G Caselli,Agustin Roitman

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Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

By: Francesca G Caselli,Agustin Roitman

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to prices using local projection techniques to obtain state dependent impulse responses in a panel of 28 emerging markets. We find significant evidence of non-linearities during episodes of depreciation greater than 10 and 20 percent. More specifically, we find that, after one month, the exchange rate pass-through coefficient is equal to 18 and 25 percent respectively, compared to a coefficient of 6 percent in the linear case. We also investigate the role of temporary vs. permanent shocks and the adoption of an inflation targeting regime in the transmission from exchange rate movements to prices. We perform a set of robustness checks, addressing the presence of outliers and potential endogeneity concerns.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151357826X

ISBN 13

9781513578262

Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Todd D. Mattina,Agustin Roitman

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Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Todd D. Mattina,Agustin Roitman

We study whether multiyear fiscal adjustment plans in 17 OECD countries during 1980-2011 have been associated with market pressure. We find that only a third (34 percent) of the consolidations occurred under market pressure, suggesting that market pressure is important but not the main element associated with consolidation plans. Many adjustments under market pressure were also clustered around external shocks, and entailed larger median fiscal adjustments than other multiyear consolidations. In contrast, we find that virtually all multiyear consolidations aimed at reducing budget deficits occurred with initially weak macro-fiscal fundamentals.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484374053

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9781484374054

Drivers of Inflation

Hungary

By: Estefania Cohn-Bech,Karim Foda,Agustin Roitman

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Drivers of Inflation

Hungary

By: Estefania Cohn-Bech,Karim Foda,Agustin Roitman

Though high and rising inflation has been a challenge for most economies across Europe in 2022 and into 2023, it has accelerated in Hungary to the highest level in Europe. This paper examines how and why Hungary reached historically high inflation. It draws on an augmented Phillips Curve to estimate the impact of common drivers of inflation, examines the role of labor market tightness and policy stances, and analyzes possible changes to the degree of exchange rate pass-through in recent years. Overall, a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, a series of exogenous shocks, and too loose a policy mix fueled inflation to its highest level in decades. Though monetary and fiscal policies are now tightening, regulatory price caps undermine those efforts. Going forward, a consistently and persistently tight overall policy mix is needed to drive inflation back to the central bank’s target.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400234163

The Economics of Political Transitions

Implications for the Arab Spring

By: Padamja Khandelwal,Agustin Roitman

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The Economics of Political Transitions

Implications for the Arab Spring

By: Padamja Khandelwal,Agustin Roitman

Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475543603

ISBN 13

9781475543605

Precautionary Savings in a Small Open Economy Revisited

By: Agustin Roitman

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Precautionary Savings in a Small Open Economy Revisited

By: Agustin Roitman

A common assumption in standard economic models is that agents are risk-averse and prudent, and it is often argued that prudence is necessary to generate precautionary savings. This paper shows that prudence is not necessary to generate precautionary savings in small open economy models with more than two periods. A new class of preferences, which enables the isolation of the effect of risk aversion on precautionary savings, is introduced. The effects of changes in risk aversion, interest rates, and persistence and volatility of shocks on average asset holdings are qualitatively identical to the ones observed for standard constant-elasticity-of-substitution preferences. These results show that the almost universal assertion in the literature - that only prudent consumers can generate positive levels of precautionary savings - is simply incorrect.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

146392335X

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9781463923358

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

By: Christian Daude,Agustin Roitman

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Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

By: Christian Daude,Agustin Roitman

Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We show evidence suggesting that uncertainty about the underlying stochastic process is present in commodity prices. In addition, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with informational frictions, which explicitly considers uncertainty about the nature of shocks. When formulating expectations, the economy assigns some probability to the shocks being temporary even if they are actually permanent. Parameter instability in the stochastic process implies that optimal saving levels (debt holdings) should be higher (lower) compared to a process with fixed parameters. Imperfect information about the nature of shocks matters when commodity GDP shares are high. Thus, economic policies based on misperception of the underlying regime can lead to substantial over/under saving with important associated costs.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

145522104X

ISBN 13

9781455221042

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

By: Christian Daude,Agustin Roitman

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Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

By: Christian Daude,Agustin Roitman

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145522104X

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9781455221042

News-based Sentiment Indicators

By: Chengyu Huang,Sean Simpson,Daria Ulybina,Agustin Roitman

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News-based Sentiment Indicators

By: Chengyu Huang,Sean Simpson,Daria Ulybina,Agustin Roitman

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513518372

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9781513518374

Precautionary Savings in a Small Open Economy Revisited

By: Agustin Roitman

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Precautionary Savings in a Small Open Economy Revisited

By: Agustin Roitman

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146392335X

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9781463923358

Technology and the Future of Work

By: Adrian Peralta-Alva,Agustin Roitman

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Technology and the Future of Work

By: Adrian Peralta-Alva,Agustin Roitman

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1484379705

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9781484379707

The Economics of Political Transitions

Implications for the Arab Spring

By: Padamja Khandelwal,Agustin Roitman

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The Economics of Political Transitions

Implications for the Arab Spring

By: Padamja Khandelwal,Agustin Roitman

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1475543603

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9781475543605

Drivers of Inflation

Hungary

By: Estefania Cohn-Bech,Karim Foda,Agustin Roitman

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Drivers of Inflation

Hungary

By: Estefania Cohn-Bech,Karim Foda,Agustin Roitman

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ISBN 13

9798400234163

Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Todd D. Mattina,Agustin Roitman

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Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Todd D. Mattina,Agustin Roitman

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484374053

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9781484374054

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

By: Francesca G Caselli,Agustin Roitman

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Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

By: Francesca G Caselli,Agustin Roitman

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International Monetary Fund

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151357826X

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9781513578262

The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia

Is the Current Crisis Different?

By: International Monetary Fund

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The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia

Is the Current Crisis Different?

By: International Monetary Fund

The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the past four decades and explores whether the response during the current global economic crisis is different in 2009. Across a sample of 28 countries, we find that fiscal policy has typically amplified the business cycles and that it has been more procyclical in good times than in bad times. However, the response to the current crisis has differed from the past in that about half of the countries responded countercyclically in 2009. Going forward, the fiscal space during downturns varies widely across countries, depending on the level of debt, access to capital markets, and natural resource wealth. Not surprisingly, the oil exporters have more fiscal room than oil importers, although there are some oil importers that still have room to respond countercyclically in bad times.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451982127

ISBN 13

9781451982121

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